And not the only ones. If we start removing countries from the SWIFT system, they will have a strong incentive to start a parallel system to trade between themselves (which would very likely include China). This is something Russia has been preparing for since 2014. Suddenly, the deterrence potential wouldn’t be so great.
Here more reporting on what might’ve happened. Still horrific
Selling Gucci to oligarchs is more important than Ukrainians apparently
“ The sale of Belgian diamonds or Italian luxury goods to Russia will also be exempted from export controls.
…
An official in Brussels said EU governments needed to decide just how valuable the bloc’s €80bn annual trade with Russia was to them. As it stands, less than half of that trade will be affected at all by the EU’s sanctions regime.”
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…and the U.S. in Iraq. And they’re still hunting down Assange for disclosing it more than a decade later.
But honestly, who cares (cared) about a couple of nuked or tortured middle eastern Muslims?
Listen, I’m not American nor am responsible for their actions. What is your accusation against me? That I didn’t protest when Americans attacked other countries? That’s not what I remember. And why are you not mentioning what Israel is doing to the Palestinians?
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Excellent analysis of what’s to come; quite grim but, I think, realistic.
(not paywalled!)
In short: Russia will defeat Ucraine militarily, then either install a government of their own choosing or split the country. Prolonged siege between Europe and Russia, little prospect of improved relations. Gemany to loose influence in Europe, France will take the lead, UK will regain influence, being a significant military (and nuclear) power.
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Actually, LV bags, designer clothes, diamonds and watches are such”worthless” items that whoever buys them is shooting themselves in the foot, so let them buy that shit. The more they buy, the better.
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Man’s inhumanity to man. War brings out the most horrible side of humans, no matter under what flag they march.
But I can very much understand that eastern europeans are more worried and upset than their western neighbors now. And not just for geographical reasons.
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Nothing. No accusation and not holding a grudge against you personally, honestly.
War is dirty and entails violence. I know that, you know that, we all know that. I’ve just decided not to join the chorus of popular outrage about particular dramatised incidents or emotional first-person narrative (see also Cortana’s post here).
Yes, I do concede that this may be whataboutism on my part. But short video clips that appeal to emotion are not a good or accurate representation of reality. They’re prone to being used as propaganda, stir up resentment and public outcry while obscuring the “bigger picture”. I also try not to jump on the bandwagon of what’s (or who’s) currently “en vogue” to criticise, lament or denounce. And I don’t like double standards.
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Wtf is this shit?
Like arriving to the court as a criminal, the judge sentences you to 20 years, but you disagree, and all is well. 
Politics is hilarious.
Sure it’s a sham but the alternative is probably nothing at all
Big powers will never sign up to an independent body. IIRC US refused to sign up to criminal court
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Russia has now threatened Sweden and Finland.
I hope EU leaders will wake up and realise they have to choose between buying gas from and selling Guccis and the like to a dominant country they will be subservient to; or standing up to Putin and implementing proper sanctions and making other tough choices
Incidentally if they choose the latter the stock market has a way to go down - this feels like it could be the black swan event
The Guardian:
“The Kremlin issued a direct threat to Finland and Sweden, which have been openly contemplating Nato membership as a result of the invasion. “Their accession to Nato can have detrimental consequences … and face military and political consequences,” said Maria Zakharova, a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman.”
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I was expecting some fantasy scenario, but he presented compelling arguments. It’s funny how some “experts” say “Putin has lost his mind”, and yet it is fairly possible that he achieves exactly what he wanted. If it’s true that there are huge gas reserves around Crimea and that Crimea can barely survive without water supply, then it definitely makes sense why Putin would decide to attack. Especially if the rest of the World just stands by making passive comments.
I just can’t handle this dissonance between how individuals are expected to behave (you assault someone, steal their stuff, maybe kill them = you get a life sentence), and what countries are permitted to do. Not only do we not react to the “domestic violence” in our neighbors house (because they aren’t in our neighborhood watch club), but some of us want to continue doing business with them, because our welfare is more important than honor.
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Honor is the wrong word. It’s rather morals.
If done on purpose, I would say it is Realpolitik. However, in the case of some countries I have the impression that they have just been surprised, as you said above, by a real war. They would like to do well, but have no idea how.
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I was looking for the right word. Maybe your word is better, but you know what I mean.
I already mentioned real politik in one of the previous posts. In Poland we often criticize our historic political decisions, saying that we relied too much on honor, heroism, trust in our allies, instead of making calculated moves. One example could be the Warsaw uprising, which was destined to fail and hundreds of thousands of people died for nothing. Also in the EU, if something is against our principles, our politicians will often “die” fighting it, instead of striking a deal to keep appearances.
So Real Life Lore explains why on Earth would Russia attack. And here are some explanations for the inadequate response from some countries.
I have to say, I was shocked at the ease with which some countries started shutting down their nuclear power plants after Fukushima. The Greens have won back then, and nuclear energy has been replaced with coal, oil and gas. Trump put sanctions on Nordstream 2, Biden waived them. Biden also stopped the construction of the pipeline from Canada.
If we want our countries to be truly independent, we need energy independence. Because nobody can afford to freeze to death in Winter.
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It’s not about private persons freezing in winter, that’s only a small part of the energy consumption. Also you don’t freeze to death that fast, there are people sleeping on the streets that survive without any heating.
It’s the industry that will suffer, which in turn can lead to an economic crisis, which would weaken EU countries even more, making them an easier target for the Russian madman. E.g. Germany has a huge steel industry and steel production requires lots of gas, or fertilizers also require gas. These are also examples of things that can not easily be replaced with another energy source.
Regarding independence, I’m against countries getting completely independent, for me that’s a huge step back. In an efficient economy, each country uses its resources to do what it does best, and gets the other goods and services through trades with other countries.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m totally against this war and I think it’s ridiculous how European countries have made themselves so dependent from Russia, knowing that it’s only a matter of time until this idiot will do something as he did now.
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Energy independence is not needed, but a broad diversification of energy sources is. Germany and Italy rely heavily on gas from russia and one reason is giving up nuclear power (Italy decades ago, Germany is doing it right now - down right madness to not revert that choice, nit just because of the war, but because of climate change).
Russia also relies on selling its gas and oil, besides that they sell fertilizers and not much else, sure cutting all ties will be tough for european countries but it’s even tougher for russia.
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And how many of them are dying? Imagine a cold winter night with millions of people having no heating, including the ill and the elderly. Many would not survive. Remember what recently happened in Texas? But yeah, who knows. Of course good point that the industry would also struggle. I’m just not sure what would have a more immediate effect on public opinion.
Yeah sure I agree on diversification. But you don’t have that many choices if you don’t want to be independent.
Call me crazy, but I believe in solar + battery. It provides a great level of decentralization and independence, a single household can be its own energy producer. The tech is progressing and with Wright’s law to rely on, we should have really affordable solutions by 2030. Maybe we can then forget about coal, oil, gas or even nuclear. I don’t even mention fusion, which won’t be ready before 2050, if ever.