[COFFEE] History and histories: historical data, charts, long-term trends in investment

My understanding is that the passive bandwidth constitutes the new conditions of investing in stocks, which may justify higher PE ratios. Active investors would have to adapt to that and adapt their price targets or move out of the game altogether.

I understand active investors to include alorithmic traders, which are probably a good chunk of volume. For some of them, the starting price of a stock may not matter but rather if they expect it to trade up or down in the short term.

So we are saying that instead of active setting the price , now passive is setting the price because active need to play by new rules and accept higher valuations?

The price is set by the meeting of offer and demand. Passive affects both sides of the equation by applying a multiplicative factor to them.

Active affects the direction of price changes. Passive amplifies the magnitude of said changes. In a way, the trades made by active investors have more effect with the passive multiplier than they had without.

1 Like

It’s market cap weighted, it’s more about overall inflow/outflow right?

If anyway retail playing with short dated options seems to have more impact on the volatility.

1 Like

How do you ladies and gents like this one?

5 Likes

Would be nicer to have colour coding as year so you can see at a glance which are recent years.

1 Like

Just run the image through the latest AI chatbot by one of our Tech giants and ask it to re-color code the years ranked by recency of the year.

Within a split second you should have your result as clearly this is just an intern level difficulty task that will take the intern a couple of hours (maybe under an hour if they are spreadsheet proficient?) but AI can solve this basically immediately — and with colorful results!

</which is why the latest AI craze is just a bunch of hype>


Edit:

Not unuseful, but @PhilMongoose still needs an intern to do the actual work.

Will post it here as a reminder of Switzerland’s specialty.

GDP per Capita vs. Homeownership rates would make a nice correlation plot :joy:

2 Likes

Bit surprised to see 42%
I always thought it was 30%

It’s been said in Greece and other places that high levels of home ownership prevented social chaos in times of trouble like 2008-2015.

1 Like

Responses like that make me furious. That wasn’t the task, at all. How can it be so difficult?
Is there a way to get better results with different prompts?

In similar situations, I already tried “no, I’d like you to actually do this for me”, which didn’t bring the desired results, neither from AI nor smart-ish interns.

edit: Just to see the bright side, it could always be worse:

2 Likes

“AI will take over your jobs”
“You will loose your jobs”

4 Likes

I think an easier intermediate step would be to extract all the years into a 10 column CSV preserving the layout. Not sure even if this works.

You’ve been found out, @PhilMongoose – you’re actually a ChatGTP version 6 bot and they’re beta-testing it in this forum.

They’ve even added a humble tone (“Not sure even if this works”) – cute!

It's not like I haven't tried something like that . I apologize for any confusion, but without having access to advanced optical character recognition (OCR) capabilities or a more detailed view of the chart's contents in the image you uploaded, I can't definitively identify or confirm all the specific years that should be included in each category based solely on the image analysis I've conducted.

If there are specific years you believe are missing or if you can provide a clearer or more detailed image, I could attempt a more precise extraction or make educated adjustments based on your input. Alternatively, providing a list or description of the years and their corresponding return ranges would allow me to create a more accurate table for you.

Anyway, once in a while I came across a chart like this. Typically on the German Dax index, seems the original is published by a German interest group.

Quite like the idea, as it shows not only returns in individual years, but also across time. “Renditedreieck”, they call it.
y-axis: Year invested
x-axis: return in year x

2 Likes

Just came across this chart of the U.S. share of the world economy.


(source)

Isn’t it puzzling that the US still makes up 60% of the global stock market?


(source)

And the share has been growing steadily since about the late 80’s:


(source)

1 Like

I think it’s driven by two factors

  • higher valuation of US companies vs their revenue
  • world index are based on free float as far as I understood. I think lot of companies in Asia might not have everything in public domain
1 Like

Nope. These are different things. Why don’t you look up the same data for Switzerland? :smiling_imp:

2 Likes

I guess you’re right, they’re different things.

I still find it amazing that most of the rest of the world doesn’t 
 well, guess, capitalize? on their much larger economy.

They do, just not on the stock market.