Chronicles of fat years [2024-2027 Edition]

No, we’re using up our employment income for consumption since the beginning of 2021, so no inflow is generated from our employment.

The last inflow in 2021 stems from the last tranche of Hoolie stock vesting in September 2020.
I initially kept this money as liquidity as I expected to take a break for at least half a year. I then unexpectedly signed a job in Dec 2020 and generated income again in 2021, and the excess liquidity from the Hoolie stock sale was then repurposed to inflow into the stockpicking portfolio during 2021.

(Cash generated from the stockpicking portfolio is reinvested into the stockpicking portfolio, but that’s not inflow. Cash generated from the stockpicking portfolio that’s extracted is outflow)


SNB doing SNB things again. You never know with those guys :joy:

E: effect on CHF is lower than I would have expected. Seems like a rational move by them.
€ really got weak again the last weeks and this surely would not have been great for our export economy, it would accelerated further.


Thats why I appreciate the SNB. They are independent (unlike ECB), have control over currency of 1 nation and do what they think is best for CH economy (with minimal, if any political interference).


Wonder how long it takes until the neobanks (or banks in general) react to that. Neon already lowered their interest rate after the last drop (0.9 to 0.75), while Yuh kept it at 1%. Now the margin gets close to the 1.25% for Yuh, So I would be surprised if there is no reaction.

And offers such as WillBe (1.3%) will surely go down, otherwise they would actually lose money.


The biggest highlight of the week was chipmaker Nvidia becoming the world’s largest publicly listed firm by market capitalization.

the benchmark index (S&P 500) achieved a significant milestone in surpassing the 5,500 point level for the first time ever.

More FOMO for FOMO God!


This also:

FOMO is at extreme levels.

If others are greedy…


Apparently this chart is misleading as its simply rebalancing of the XLK ETF that causes this spike. Seen the explanation on X (Link)

Never trust a statistic you didn’t fake yourself :slight_smile:

But they bought as much nvda as they sold aapl, so should be net zero flows?

Can‘t read the explanation as I don‘t have an X account and refuse to get one :sweat_smile:

Its a bit technical but essentially its related to tax efficiency of ETFs: “Behind the scenes, someone provides short-term capital to fund share creations in ETFs slated to rebalance their portfolios. The capital is required for less than a week, and often for just one to three business days. The capital can be returned as soon as those shares are redeemed. This short-term access to capital allows ETF portfolio managers to essentially manufacture redemptions that wash out capital gains that would otherwise be realized in a rebalance.” Therefore the inflow will be reversed soon, something that can be seen on the chart from previous huge inflows.
Source: Factset

I would like to correct my statement: Never trust a statistic you didn’t fake yourself, especially if its from the sell-side :wink:


Market update.

My benchmark of the global stocks market is "MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI. To adjust it for the inflation, I divide its value in CHF by the value of “Landesindex der Konsumentenpreise (LIK)” (“Swiss CPI”) for the previous month.

After, finally, a new ATH was reached on 22.05.2024, with the nominal value 2062.698 CHF nominal, the market turned around. The lowest point of the wave was reached on 4.06.2024 with the value of 1993.37 CHF, nominal -3.4% from ATH, but still +14.7% YTD. LIK for May ticked up by 0.28%. The inflation-adjusted minimum was at -3.6% from ATH, +13% YTD.

Surely, then it went up again. On 20.06, SNB decreased their short-term rate, the CHF got cheaper with respect to other currencies, and the international stocks market benchmark become more expensive in CHF terms. I thought that it will lead to increasing customers prices, but LIK for June actually came unchanged.

As per yesterday, 03.07.2024 my benchmark have reached a new ATH both in nominal terms at 2078.149 CHF and on the inflation-adjusted basis.
It moved +4.3% (both nominal and inflation-adjusted) from the previous lowest point. The YTD gain is +19.6% in nominal CHF, +17.8% in inflation-adjusted CHF.


Looking foward to your new update :partying_face: Shout out to all the recession predicting macro pundits :joy:


Could we make it the 2024-2028 edition? A crash in Q2 2029 would work for me!

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We’re looking pretty fat today don’t we. VWRL seems to have finally broken through 120 convincingly.


Big moves today. Is this the start of the big rotation?

I think it’s just a small profit taking, also BRK.B seems to be doing the opposite when broad indices fall :wink:

what he’s probably referring to:


my UWM would love if it’s just a start.


Right, I saw that later. Whichever way I looked it I didn’t get conceptually convinced about SCV so I don’t own any or pay attention to it. Value+profitability sure.

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Read something about chinesbanks going bankrupt, started two days ago:

What would that mean?

Oubs? That could be nothing, or it could be the beginning of a china crash. No clue whatsoever but could be an intersting summer…