There is always some big names being bearish. I also don‘t recall Buffet being a good macro analyst. He‘s good at picking stocks.
The guy is also very old at this point.
If you start to listen once, sooner or later you‘ll end up waiting on the sidelines all the time. When do you get in again as well?
Miss the market riding up another 10%, maybe call the crash about right, then goes down 20%. When do you get in again? When it hit 15%? Or when it already recovered 10% and miss upside?
At the risk for speaking for myself as the only one on this forum in this position (and having decribed this before in one way or another), I’ll still make the point: earnings are much steadier and easier to predict than prices. Hence dividends paid out are also much more steady and easier to predict.
If you live off – or at least partially live off – your cash flow produced by your portfolio, you’re much less worried about the prices of your holding(s). If you don’t entirely use up your holdings’ cash flow, you actually look forward to corrections to further scoop up further future cash flow at cheaper prices.
* Until about the end of 2021 there have been outside contributions (“inflows”). Since about the beginning of 2022 there have been no inflows to the portfolio, and since 2023 I have started withdrawing (“outflows”) about 1/3rd to half of the payouts.
I expect the outflows to increase to close to 100% next year as I will likely change jobs (or may finally RE).
Of course, wouldn’t actually make anything drastic. I am not selling (or considering to), or stopping investing altogether - just easing off the gas a bit. Edit, second part of the quote. I experienced the 20% drop already in 2022, caveat with a lot less money invested than today. I kept buying as the good boy I am No reason not to do the same if it happens again.
Meh, I have no need for fixed income right now, and barring selling (which I won’t do) I don’t have any sort of liquidity to drop into fixed income that’d move any sort of needle to be meaningful.
I’m quite set at what I will do, just wondering what are others’ thoughts on our current situation, considering all-world has done pretty damn well and we’re only halfway through the year. Comparing 2023 with 2024, 2023 was very choppy, 2024 has gone pretty much straight up with just a couple of short-term hitches.
Eventually my goal is to pivot to dividends, as well, just far from it at the moment!
20+ years of investing here. When I hear that you want to Pause investing - my immediate instinct response was that you either invest beyond your risk capacity or that your emergency fund was too low. Therefore, please don‘t just stop investing but carefully re-consider your asset allocation and the size of the emergency fund you need. And if you feel you did nothing but saving in life and got a bit depressed - just relax a bit, enjoy life more and save less agressively. Its a marathon not a sprint.
The goal is that you every month/quarter/year … every „repeat period whatever it was“ invest 100% of your sustainable net savings. Meaning only those net savings you realizing whilst maintaining a meaningful life. The only exception to investing all surplus in my view are windfall profits (I advocate to linearily spread the invest over 3-5 years) or if anything changed that objectively justifies a different emergency fund. Clearly, this view assumes that savings (beyond the emergency fund) may as well form part of your asset allocation aka of your investments.
Just stopping / reducing investments leads to behavorial mistakes, worries, emotions and eventually an increased risk for sub-par Investment outcome.
Or to put it differently: you aint made for 100% stocks, and thats absolutely ok! I am not either… or - you save too agressively and need to balance life and savings a bit.
No, we’re using up our employment income for consumption since the beginning of 2021, so no inflow is generated from our employment.
The last inflow in 2021 stems from the last tranche of Hoolie stock vesting in September 2020.
I initially kept this money as liquidity as I expected to take a break for at least half a year. I then unexpectedly signed a job in Dec 2020 and generated income again in 2021, and the excess liquidity from the Hoolie stock sale was then repurposed to inflow into the stockpicking portfolio during 2021.
(Cash generated from the stockpicking portfolio is reinvested into the stockpicking portfolio, but that’s not inflow. Cash generated from the stockpicking portfolio that’s extracted is outflow)
SNB doing SNB things again. You never know with those guys
E: effect on CHF is lower than I would have expected. Seems like a rational move by them.
€ really got weak again the last weeks and this surely would not have been great for our export economy, it would accelerated further.
Thats why I appreciate the SNB. They are independent (unlike ECB), have control over currency of 1 nation and do what they think is best for CH economy (with minimal, if any political interference).
Wonder how long it takes until the neobanks (or banks in general) react to that. Neon already lowered their interest rate after the last drop (0.9 to 0.75), while Yuh kept it at 1%. Now the margin gets close to the 1.25% for Yuh, So I would be surprised if there is no reaction.
And offers such as WillBe (1.3%) will surely go down, otherwise they would actually lose money.
Its a bit technical but essentially its related to tax efficiency of ETFs: “Behind the scenes, someone provides short-term capital to fund share creations in ETFs slated to rebalance their portfolios. The capital is required for less than a week, and often for just one to three business days. The capital can be returned as soon as those shares are redeemed. This short-term access to capital allows ETF portfolio managers to essentially manufacture redemptions that wash out capital gains that would otherwise be realized in a rebalance.” Therefore the inflow will be reversed soon, something that can be seen on the chart from previous huge inflows.
Source: Factset
I would like to correct my statement: Never trust a statistic you didn’t fake yourself, especially if its from the sell-side
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No reason not to do the same if it happens again.
