Chronicles of fat years [2024-2027 Edition]

This may not seem important to many, but it actually is. And it’s my second biggest beef I have with index ETFs: They have no right to vote for us and strip us of our rights.

First beef: AuM fees, totally unjustified rip-off imo. It should be flat fees. But the finance industry loves AuM fees, of course.

End of rant :joy:

2 Likes

Investment grade bond spreads at lowest level since 1998, junk spreads lowest since 2007.

1 Like

Hey, don’t forget though, you don’t only have a “tiny vote”, but at the GV the right to state your case and (possibly) swing many more votes to your line than your “tiny” amount.

remember, don’t only critisice though, also credit (suisse) where credit (suisse) is due

2 Likes

And in the case of China, there’s a lot of financial repression going on.

While all media attention is always on US stocks & US bonds, in Switzerland the bonds are proving their value in the portfolio

ChCORP vs CHSPi total return

1 Like

Now imagine how cash would outperform this!

6 Likes

From today’s Bloomberg MarketsDaily newsletter:


ETFs enjoy record cash inflows

It’s been a banner year for exchange-traded funds all over the world, fueled by the sizzling stock rally. So far, ETFs have taken in $1.5 trillion globally, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show, with every region seeing record money. That’s with more than five weeks to go. A further plus: December is known to be a historically strong inflow month for these cheap products for the masses.


Was Oct 20 the top in CHF? Reading my cristal ball, it looks like we are in a top building process with flat/slightly reducing highs and increasing lows. Lines wiill converge in about 2-4 weeks and if you askk me, we will then (before christmas) either have a strong bull trend thatt sstartd - or more likely a trend reversal. Gut feel: non-Event december and bad surprise early Jan…

1 Like

Turkey, Brazil and China look juicy too, but not for the faint-hearted :sweat_smile:

1 Like

How about Frontier Markets? :thinking:

Very interesting imo, but access to these markets is so difficult Blackrock actually had to shut down a relatively high-AuM ETF (FM).

1 Like

Not really efficiently investible.

Some remaining funds also shut down recently.

Liquidity and transaction cost is a big problem there.

1 Like

Seems I got this little tinkering itch as of late :sweat_smile: Looking at low vol stocks (=“defensive”, e.g. ACWV) that have relatively underperformed the market & other factors over the past 5 years in CHF.

Ex-US dividend (bad stuff I know :grin:) stocks don’t look too bad either. Probably better to go for value stocks instead though.

Any other sins you’d recommend?

(in the end, I’ll probably end up buying VT & trend though, as usual)

1 Like

Nothing is overvalued or undervalued. Everything is rightly valued because lets face it, market knows :slight_smile:
If I were you, I would not expect higher returns from any of the markets. I would not be surprised if all of the following would have similar returns over long term

  • VT
  • VTI 50%, VXUS 50%
  • VTI 33%, CHSPI 33% , VXUS 34%

So deviating away from VT should be for RISK mitigation & not really for return maximization.

1 Like

Very true, @oslasho & @Abs_max . Luckily, my tinkering ravings have always led me back to my beloved VT in the end (and some un-Bogle trend, admittedly :sweat_smile:).

It seems to be a kind of cleansing process for me to dabble in frivolous investment ideas from time to time, only to reject them all :joy:

4 Likes

I found a undervalued market with a great cape ratio, solid firm with proven business model and high dividend yield. Invested a couple of years ago.

Now, we all know what happened to russian stocks…

6 Likes

When our home bias in equities will pay?

Currently invested with SPI Extra 2/3 and SMI 1/3 with vested and 3A which represent 20% of invested money.

It’s a bit hard to stay the course when US takes all for 15 years now!

3 Likes

This is true that MSCI Switzerland has underperformed MSCI World & MSCI ACWI IMI over a 10 year period. But MSCI CH has outperformed MSCI world & ACWI IMI since 1994. Source

No one knows if returns for CH would increase over next 10-20 years or not. But this is true for any country. Even US is not guaranteed to outperform.

The question is how did your portfolio performed at overall level and was it decent performance or not. You cannot cherry pick the elements. If your strategy is world ETF with 20% CH then what was the return of this strategy during your investment horizon?

Table below is in CHF terms

1 Like

The returns haven‘t been bad.

The US outperformance was just crazy over the last decade.

Your investment lifetime is many decades, not just ten.

Stay the course and not chase performance over the short-term. That‘s recipe for buying high and selling low.

Also US valuations get more and more ridiculous. It cannot go on like this forever, there is a ceiling in valuations.
From a purely fundamental performance, US stocks just did slightly better.

Most of US outperformance over ex-US came from USD strength and valuation multiples increasing. Which both are unlikely to continue on forever.

1 Like

I totally agree with you guys. I will stay the course with 65 %world + CH 20% with small/mid cap tilt

  • tiny overweight on emerging market 15%

Anyway if CH stocked start to really perform hopefully I guess I would sell it to buy Physical real estate with leverage.
Global Equities + local RE for home bias seems more logical to me. It could be a rental property or funds with leverage

1 Like