We’re kind of back to where we started, stocks vulnerable because of them being priced for perfection, but still creeping up as the economy is still doing OK and consumer still doing OK (and also even in a recession, it isn’t clear to me that stocks would need to suffer a lot).
I don’t want to be completely out of the market as I can see that stocks would still continue to go up. But I don’t want to be all-in as I can see also the risk of stock prices collapsing.
(source)
Hi, what is the source of this graph? It is very useful
9 posts were merged into an existing topic: Benchmarking The Market
We’re looking a bit…chubby today aren’t we?!
The crash that never was.
Those are doves you see flying over Wyoming.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell launched the signal flare today, saying policymakers are ready to start cutting interest rates.
Powell said.: “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
Market watchers declared the Powell pivot complete.
Interesting to see whether that soft landing will happen while inflation is kept at bay in the coming 12-18 months in the US. Then, the FED would have done a very good job. Still a bit skeptical as this does seem like a fairytale story.
I can imagine it as Fed tightening has been counteracted by huge fiscal spending. I’m not sure you could even describe the financial conditions as ‘tight’ in spite of several rate hikes.
nVidia earnings this week. Let’s see.
I could imagine if they really become common, they will be arbitraged away eventually or else “buying the dip” works to well. It cant happen any different.
Also fast acting tail risk strategies would get very common, counteracting it also.
AI juggernaut Nvidia (NVDA) reported second quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday that beat expectations on the top and bottom line, while its forecast for the current quarter also came in ahead of expectations.
Nvidia reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.68 on revenue of $30 billion in its fiscal second quarter. Analysts were expecting EPS of $0.64 and revenue of $28.8 billion. That marks a 122% increase on the top line from a year ago; earnings rose 168% from the same quarter last year.
The company also provided third quarter revenue guidance of $32.5 billion plus or minus 2%. Analysts were looking for $31.9 billion.
Shares of the chip giant were down about 3.5% in after-hours trading following the results. The stock fell as much as 6% in immediate reaction to the numbers.
Yeah I saw, I expected as much because humans. I hope that this marks the end of the nvidia circus and we don’t get a crash the inevitable day they MISS earnings predictions.
P.S. of course Buffett remains a chad
On a side note. I think the original sharp increase of CHf vs USD was driven by recession fears during the crash of early august.
However now again CHF is very strong . But this might be based on fundamentals (interest rates, debt, supply demand etc). Any thoughts?
The world ETF in CHF terms is still 6% down versus the year high while VT is approx 1% off.
Think there is more than 1 factor that led to sharp CHF increase (safe haven currency…), but carry trade was not only limited to JPY.
From the FT “Carry trades in requiem” (Alphaville column, highly recommend!):
The unwind has not been so quick for the Swiss franc, the other safe-haven currency commonly used to fund carry trades, SocGen notes. It’s a much smaller market than the yen though, so the ripple effect should be less pronounced:
In another article “Brace yourself for an ‘avalanche’ of dollar selling?”:
Morgan Stanley’s former currency supremo reckons the greenback’s recent slide may yet turn into an “avalanche” as dollar depositors with a nervous eye on America’s rising trade and budget deficits and “no loyalty” to the world’s de facto reserve currency begin to flee.
He has been bearish on the dollar for about a year and a half, during which time it’s largely tracked sideways. “Even though I haven’t been right, I haven’t been that wrong, either,” says the former Morgan Stanley man. You can take the man out of the sellside, but not the sellside out of the man etc.
The latest CFTC data likewise suggests speculators are now long international FX versus the USD.
So as you can see, as always its difficult to find a valid reason because there are so many around. Just pick your favourite 
Interesting that they are also launching a new $50bn share buyback. Time will tell if that is a good move.
