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Let’s wait for the dead cat to finish moving first… 
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So is the cat now rolling down the stairs or not?
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Kinda.
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just did a Markt-to-market of my Portfolio. The effective, final drop is peanuts. What matters now is how things continue. IF Iran goes balistic, we might see a major drop. But at the Moment, looks likey they are fairly sensible (actually mores ensible than Israel?). Anyways, thats politics. Unless something crazy happens in Japan / with Banks that have large JPY book / Israel and Iran… i don’t think that we will have super scary Investment times ahead.
Clearly… it bugs me a bit as I just re-balanced end of July and (due to a calculation and Markt-to-market error) slightly over-balanced my equity portion. But in the bigger scheme, that probably costed me something like 0.05% of performance, so … so what we are good and Investment live goes on.
Wake me up again when a real crash happens 
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You mean like the epic crash last Monday?
We’re kind of back to where we started, stocks vulnerable because of them being priced for perfection, but still creeping up as the economy is still doing OK and consumer still doing OK (and also even in a recession, it isn’t clear to me that stocks would need to suffer a lot).
I don’t want to be completely out of the market as I can see that stocks would still continue to go up. But I don’t want to be all-in as I can see also the risk of stock prices collapsing.
(source)
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Hi, what is the source of this graph? It is very useful
Benchmark update.
My benchmark of the global stocks market is “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI. To adjust it for the inflation, I divide its value in CHF by the value of “Landesindex der Konsumentenpreise (LIK)” (“Swiss CPI”) for the previous month.
The latest ATH of 2121.76 CHF nominal was reached on 16.07.2024. The YTD gain was +22.1% in nominal CHF, +20.3% in inflation-adjusted CHF.
LIK for July went down a bit and changed by -0.18% m/m.
The benchmark has pulled back with a minimum of 1843.76 CHF nominal reached on 5.8.2024, as evident by 142 messages posted in this thread around this date. The decline from ATH was -13.1% nominal and -12.9% inflation-adjusted, corresponding to “Correctio Vulgaris”. The YTD gain was +6.1% in nominal CHF, +4.7% in inflation-adjusted CHF.
As per yesterday, 14.08.2024, my benchmark stands at 1975.243 CHF nominal. It has moved +7.1% (both nominal and inflation-adjusted) from the 5.8.2024 minimum and stands at -6.9% nominal and -6.7% inflation-adjusted from ATH. This is again the “Mild Correction” regime. The YTD gain is +13.6% in nominal CHF, +12.2% in inflation-adjusted CHF.
Stay the course.
元博士
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Crisis averted, we are back on track.
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Why the previous and not the current month?
Cause the metrics are ex post.
Meaning the value of inflation for July 2024 is how much it has changed between 1st of June 2024 and 1st of July 2024?
No, meaning that July 2024 numbers are only published at the beginning of August 2024.
Why should it matter when they were published? The value for July '24 could be published in December and would still be the value for July '24?