Looking at your setup, since you’re holding VT and AVNM, you actually already have roughly 5-6% exposure to Japan just by default. If you add a dedicated Index, you’re making a deliberate tilt to overweight it.
To simply answer your question, no. No idea for an Index, we’ve talked a bit regarding Japanese equities on the stockpickers thread. The Nikkei 225 has done very well this past few years, it’s Japan’s SP500, you can simply go with it to get Japanese blue chip exposure.
If you want to dig deeper into the current Japanese market, I see three main plays:
A lot of everyday Japanese companies have deep integrations on the AI supply chain. Ceramics, Photonics, Fiber Cables, etc.
Cyclicals
Surge on materials with the trading companies holding everything from rare earth minerals, chemicals, oil & LNG to food supply chains.
They own the infrastructure and manufacture everything you can think of. If you take Mitsubishi for example, they make pencils, AC units, cars, rockets, forge gold and a lot more. Almost all the big 5 also have Banks that are very active inside and outside Japan.
Deep Value small caps
Boring businesses
Profitable for 20+ years
Pays dividends
Below book value
High insider ownership
So, choose your poison. Be careful that Japan remained flat for 30 years, and it’s only waking up now. If you want to enter the trade, you need to understand that if you’re not going for deep value, this is purely a momentum play and you need an exit strategy. No matter if you pick an index or individual stocks.
The other factor to watch out for is the FX market. CHFJPY is at ATM. I have no idea when the BOJ and/or SNB might intervene to not let the CHF appreciate further.
We had overestimated the value of “human relationships”. Turns out that a lot of what people called relationships was simply friction with a friendly face.
>Human intelligence derived its inherent premium from its scarcity. Every institution in our economy, from the labor market to the mortgage market to the tax code, was designed for a world in which that assumption held.
We overesrimate both the ability of upper mangement to properly assess the skillsets needed for the jobs in their company (that they think they can replace with AI) and the usefullness of a lot of white collar jobs.
The result is that we are replacing low value adding white collar jobs by cheaper inefficient AI. Still a waste but a lesser one for the company and a bigger one for society.
The bigger problem is still the efficiency of marketing and lobbying when applied to upper management.
tldr. This time literally
Beware that human relationships changes by country and culture. The second I read your quote I thought “americans”. They are (unfortunately?) plagued by easy-friendliness but hard real-friendships.
In Europe, for what I know, the way friendship grow is similar in the work einvironment. I won’t say that your colleagues are your BFF, but the relationship at work follow the same patterns.
As long as you don’t work in a big US company with loads of US bosses.
This completely sidelines companies that monetise “friction” in the economy, such as travel and estate agencies that operate as middlemen in processes such as booking holidays or buying property.
Oddly enough, I remember the very same prediction anno 2000, surely to be delivered by the dot.com boom. At the time, the buzzwords were “disintermediation” and “mass-customization” though…
I was listening to one commentator who said that they had assembled such a large force that they would need to ‘do something’ to show a return on investment or at least save face.
Not clear? Iran refused to hand over the enriched uranium as well as stopping any enriching in any form. The US is trying their hardest of another rogue state being able to build the device.
Depleting scarce military reserves limits strategic flexibility for other potential conflict zones and fails to achieve either of the aforementioned goals. Following Iran’s resistance to maximum US pressure, a military escalation became highly probable. Iran appears to have critically miscalculated by dismissing the recent military build-up as a bluff, despite having faced previous strikes. This strategic misjudgment was likely compounded by an overreliance on anticipated, yet ultimately unmaterialized, military support from Russia and China.
Haha, nice one, yet you’re right, as you often are
What’s “rogue” is in the eye of the beholder, the textbook definition is “threatening world peace, authoritarian, trampling over human rights”. Can apply to…nearly any state in the world, at some point in history - including many “good” countries right now. The thing with nukes is that they change the game where nobody having them is not a risk of going rogue at some point. Of course there’s less of a worry for France nuking Devon or the US nuking Puerto Vallarta or Toronto but still
Mirager, how is all this related to investing and FIRE in CH or anywhere else?
I mean, what are the conditions for calling the operation a success? Usually when you start a conflict, you have clear goal/outcome. Trump statement does call for regime change, but it’s unlikely to lead to some kind of long term stability (even if it induces changes).
There’s historical precedent in Syria/Libya/Afghanistan/etc, year long wars with not really a clear success at the end.
If it’s purely because of nuclear, note that the US unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA (while most agreed that Iran was upholding its terms), which was actually impressively approved by the UN – it’s hard to get the security council to agree on anything in the past few decades – after that it’s somewhat hard for Iran to even try to have a diplomatic solution to anything.
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(too soon?)