Very relevant for investments in the stock market and maybe for gold, oil and defence stocks.
Largest war in Middle East since years with bombings in Iran, Israel, Qatar, Abu Dhabi and more. Must be bad for stock markets. Isnât it
Specially keeping in mind the most stable democracy in world is attacking second country this year. And a friendly take over of third one is being proposed. I would say valuation for S&P 500 would go down further
First nuclear bomb strike , second nuclear bomb strike and third nuclear strike would all be from the same country. Targets might not be the same.
having said that , I am pretty sure we would find a reason to justify that too 
I was on holiday and just realised it is Saturday and forgot to buy my oil stocks this week, so I figured something like this might happen. sorry. 
Right, but perhaps more relevant would be discussing what would anyone do in terms of investing with this new information, so we can get into our beloved loop of active vs passive investing.
Dunno, just tired, boss.
Test your current portfolio vs. your risk tolerance and expectations?
(considering the seriousness of the events themselves it might sound messed upâŠ)
Hope none of your with this bank. Itâs being shuttered
2 Likes
Ah then we go back to the loop of being prepared, knowing thyself etc 
But I get you, I too feel morally dirty wondering if VWRL will fall but SCHD will rise, hence this is distasteful to me and I push it away.
âThe bank said has sufficient assets to satisfy all clients and creditors in full, though noted it can only make payments of as much as 100,000 Swiss francs per client given the US intervention and the revocation of its license.â
So, we have the money, but wonât give it back to you?
1 Like
Just imagine a near future when most financial assets will be tokenized and tradeable 24x7.
I wonder if the USâ action in the Middle East is not ultimately (and exclusively) serving to push up the value of their recently acquired Venezuelan oil.
It may be just my inkling but I bought my oil stocks this week: SXLE
2 Likes
Yes, I agree. The statement âthis time itâs differentâ is usually a red flag. On the other hand, some disruptions from the 2000s and earlier came to stay: steam power, electricity, automation, digitalization. In 2050, we will look back and might wonder how we got there âŠ. 
I think it means that money will be returned but perhaps after due process.
1 Like
I believe the idea is to control all major existing reserves of oil (Venezuela, Iran, Iraq are amongst top 5). Saudi and Canada are other two. Libya is also amongst top 10 which is already taken out by previous actions.This gives leverage against China as they will be left with Russia only.
next step would be to appoint a puppet govt in Iran similar to Venezuela.
2 Likes
I think nothing really to do unless you are a day trader or you are inside the Trump administration and can make polybets.
Everything is too unknown and volatile.
Iâm hoping everybody fires there missiles for a few days and then stops, like the puppet show a few months ago, but maybe things escalate.
2 Likes
I donât think it was a misjudgement. Both sides have boxed themselves in. Iran doesnât want to give up its sovereign right to uranium enrichment (and surreptitiously getting nukes).
US doesnât want them to do that and doesnât want to revive a JCPOA-like deal which might slow/prevent that so naturally, it comes down to using force.
In Iranâs position, I think I would do the same. US can keep launching missiles, but Iran can keep dispersing infrastructure and try to wait it out.
Probably US might want to destroy Iranâs navy next as the big risk is for Iran to mine the straight and set off an oil price spike which could impact US domestic politics.
uhmm
SMI goes down 1% on the first trading day after the begin of the war, itâs headline news on SRF. It crashes 4% the day after with no indication as to why and nobody cares?
Isnât the (potential for the) blockade of Hormuz a âpiece of new infoâ for today?
(With its potential implications for the economy)
1 Like
