I have seen declines like that, but I have never seen a daily rise like that. My momentum portfolio with 38 positions is up a stunning 15.45%.
I don’t understand and never will understand the market participants… and I am one of 'em.
There are new players that can manipulate markets without fear of punishment. But only because the market participants (we) let them…
This vid has an expanded explanation of this graph: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PxqwZcTpc0&pp=ygULamFtZXMgc2hhY2s%3D
I don’t know if this pause is caused from position of strength (many countries offering concessions or from position of weakness (due to US30Y & US10Y spikes & stock market crash).
But the plan was already defined by Stephen Miran in details. It is exactly what they are doing. Putting countries in buckets of green, red & yellow.
Next step could be Debt restructuring & USD devaluation as US got most countries scared to death.
You are too emotional. Judging by your post history you hate the man personally and nothing will change that.
It may look amateurish (the “formula”… 0.24*4) when Trump talks about it, but you have to stop listening to him. Look at the people behind him, like Scott Bessent. You think they don’t have a plan, seriously?
Care to elaborate? Do you know how much the federal government spends? How do you plan on cutting it? Put some politicians in charge and check back in 4 years? We can also take the European Union way, where we propose something and create more regulation to cut other regulation sometimes soon. It’s better to do something, than doing nothing and you can hate it as much as you want, but we both know that DOGE are right.
I totally agree with you - but it’s the Trump way and he literally said that he is going to do it.
If he gets through with his tax cuts (making them permanent) and can lower the corporate tax rate to 15% I am positive that he can get both. There is far less bureaucracy in the United States for doing business and lower taxes, which both are important for businesses.
If you want access to the United States, either pay a 10% tariff, or move your business here where you have much lower taxes and regulations than in your country.
I might sound like a Trump fan, but and I can assure you I’m not. I’m a fan of government that’s actually pro-business and low-taxes. Here in Europe everything they talk about is more regulation and higher taxes, because it’s not like we are already getting taxed to death (income tax, wealth tax, consumption tax, mineral oil tax, inheritance tax, electricity tax, emission tax on equity increases) and what’s the solution? MORE TAXES! /rant
I am glad that Trump blinked. Otherwise, we wouldd tomorrow be in a very difficult scenario.
The key question now is what Mr Market thinks of 10% tarrif and the China situation. I wouldnt be surprised if turbulence comes back after the weekend.
Strange times it is…
I think this Reddit post is related
What I don’t quite understand is with such a high inequality in US, how come US is larger market than EU.
Most wealth stays with top 10% of people in US but their per capita consumption is still very high.
It seems either US lives beyond their means or Europe is more focussed on saving than spending
I think a small global tariff plus stronger ones on China is where we are likely to land so already close to this. Best case, US China hammer out a deal too.
But I don’t think this is the end. Europe isn’t out of the woods yet. For sure, I think Trump has one more plot twist left in him so would not be surprised if these some of the higher tariffs are brought up again.
If the world gets 10%, I think everybody is already resigned to that and can live with it.
Isn’t it well recognized? (I think it’s acknowledged as a source of trade deficit for the US the fact that there is little saving and a lot more consumption, and then you have countries like Germany that are probably the opposite 
)
I think more harmful than the tariffs at this point is the uncertainty. Companies still don’t know where they have to build their next factory.
They do live more on credit, but also have more money to spend, because they don’t have to pay so many taxes. Mind you that lots of US states have none to low sales taxes, or even income taxes (+federal). Most people also invest in the stock market where their wealth grows (including pension funds) that also is not taxed very much compared to the rest of the world.
Ignoring all what I said above, I just think they have a different mentality and risk appetite, which I can’t comprehend.
How can we stop listening to him if he is the president?
Look at the people behind him, like Scott Bessent. You think they don’t have a plan, seriously?
I looked at Navarro on CNBC and what he spouted was embarrassing.
I agree the trajectory of spending is unsustainable. I don’t think DOGE‘s chainsaw approach (cut first, ask questions later) is constructive. Case in point below. You want to tell me it’s a great idea?
The current approach has a high risk of creating a lot more damage than can be recovered. Decline in trust is showing in treasury markets.
I agree with your sentiment on bureaucracy US vs. EU.
making 10% for everybody feels like punishing US consumers, no? no company is going to move factories because of 10% with so many risks and lack of stability now
will the same happen again in 3months?
does somebody consider selling/shorting now?
I think most countries have trade barriers that are way higher than 10%. If all that action serves to remove those barriers it was worth the suffering…
One time inflation . 10% would not be such a big increase
Is it?
If 10% stay, and manufacturing for a Mercedes from Germany increases by 20% in the next 3 years (assumption; inflation in DE), then the price for a mercedes would be up by 22% in the US.
It just multiplies any non-US price hikes by 1.1x as long as it stays in place.
I don’t get why some of you think that there is one entity up at the top there. You should have seen countless of times elsewhere. On top of my mind is Israel where the prime minister had to go hand in hand with the extreme right in order to become PM. Same applies to the us. There is a President that is leading a party that had to accept any kind of groups in there. So who’s leading is telling the racists that they do this and that because of foreigners, then the religious get their way (we will stop woke doctors whatever) , then economists (the debt!) and so on. Maybe at the top there is just a person, maybe a president of another country. Who knows. The thing is that we keep seing signals from different fronts and everything seems so weird, but there might be several plans but secretly just one goal.
Anyway I keep not understanding the economists part of the plan. Why not just “shoot” at the companies like the president did with some lawyers? Just go to Intel and co and tell them to build chips in US or get destroyed. That would have been way easier (intel just as an example).
Regarding the debt: a big part is owned by the government. They might just tell to themselves to cancel it like they did with the student loans. It’s a special kind of repayment. But I’m not an economist or expert in anything so this whole post might be just rubbish.
But it would not have created the tariff revenues needed to justify the desired tax cuts. To be fair, it would also have given Intel a competitive disadvantage vs. foreign manufacturers.
Well we are only talking about inflation which is directly related to tariffs . Rest is always going to be on top of previous price and in same percentages.
For example -: 20,000 USD Car would cost 22000 USD
Now if 20,000 USD changes to 21000 USD (+5%), then new price would be 23100 USD
23100 USD is 5% more than 22000 USD
And keep in mind, imports are not 100% of goods sold in US. Maybe less than 20%. And then tariffs are only on cost but not on markup prices. For example wines sold for 1 USD might be sold for 1.50 USD. Tariff only applies to 1 USD.
I don’t think overall impact on inflation would be very high. It might be some points but that can be acceptable because partial impact would be faced be suppliers too.
This money would be used to lower the tax rate. Everyone will be fine
To be clear. Not saying it’s a good policy but I think it’s not the end of the world. Tariffs are local decisions and many countries have tariffs of some sort. US will have highest average tariffs going forward which might boost local manufacturing or not. Who knows
