+7%
I didnât because my bonus always happens to be right before bigger market declines. March 2020, June 2022, April 2025. Why not January? 
Well look, you know how the âmiss X days in the marketâŠâ articles always say how the biggest moves are in bear markets? This was one of these âbiggest move daysâ thatâll make it into the evolution of this article. For buy and hold it means little if weâre still -13%.
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We had several clients that liqudated 7-figure portfolios this week. One of them was today in the afternoon.
Canât wait to get into the office tomorrow.
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Letâs not forget the reality
- We still have 10% global tariffs
- US will ârewardâ countries if they donât retaliate to random tariffs
- There is still a chance that âalliesâ would be pushed to agree on the US Debt trap deal
This is how the world need to work with US. Follow the orders and get a smaller punishment. This is still bullying.
I hope EU & others donât get relaxed now. They still need to derisk themselves (defence, IT & trade security)
P.S -: not sure if EU is getting 10% or 20%
P.S -: I think this move has something to do with the movement in Congress and US10Y problem
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Was talking to a US colleague today who basically said âmy retirement is gone for a few more years, Iâm hundreds of thousands downâ. I didnât have the heart to say âyeah but you should have delevered/deriskedâ as sheâs a sweetheart and nobody likes a smartass.
Funny I was planning to actually buy more today as the open far overshot my -20% buy target and I do have dry powder at the ready but thought, give it a bit more, itâll go down more. I still think it will.
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Well this whole thing surely made me realize that you shouldnât be 100% stocks in retirement. I mean I knew it before of course. But experiencing it hits different.
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Tomorrow - orange may declare war on Canada, so hold your expectationsâŠ
Till tomorrow
Do you know the tell of Zen Master - from â Charlie Wilsonâs Warâ?
If you donât - then have fun.
Actually whatever you need to use for next 5 years shouldnât be in stocks at any moment. Thatâs of course the case for retirement but can be other use cases too
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Well, of course. I really donât understand how so many people - not here - have so little self awareness.
This whole thing makes me very happy on a character development level, I thought Iâd shit myself whenever a nice big drop came, but Iâm not.
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Do nothing, unless you couldnt sleep the lastvfew nights. Then, take this as an opportunity to review your Asset Allocation. And if you want to do so, my gut feel is that I would not sell now but probably on Friday Afternoon.
Personally, I did nothing post my End of Mmarch invest, and I wonât do anything until my End of June Invest
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You were a bit off on the timing but I find the sequence of events quite interesting and they kind of played out in this fashion
Including the bond sell off 
My reason for believing thereâs long way down is because every time he did anything outrageous, and people were in disbelief, there were those who quickly pointed out âbut hey, heâs actually doing exactly what he said he would doâ.
The crying wolf story is telling, and the danger in games of brinkmanship is that at some point the wolf really does come, and the villagers never come for help.
And besides, what sort of bullcrap are they spewing, I now saw the tariffs for China went up to 125% apparently. Tomorrow and the next 6 months will be great entertainment. After all, he managed to bankrupt a casino, where people come to give money and leave with nothing, his one success is on TV 
Edit 2: a key difference between Trump and Jinping is that China can crush Trump, and do it while most of the population will be cheering along.
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F me, I need to go to the polymarkets now. 
(Missed just the part of China - no penguins there)
Have a look at VWRL vs VGWL. 10 EUR difference. I wonder how many people will try to buy the former tomorrow morning.
Bull case, and somewhat plausible: Trump is flexing tariffs up to scare, then will flex them down to show heâs listening, then offer relatively soft deals to trading partners to be sure theyâll be accepted so he has a narrative that he crushed the whole world to his iron will, and countries will accept them to prompt him to eff off to Florida to play golf and fondle bimbos with plastic lips, and wait it out while building up in a quieter time until heâs gone.
Iâm pretty sure that other countries will have to agree to put tariffs on China.
You will find my take moronic, but I do believe his team has a plan. Donât listen to Trump, he talks too much, better listen to the interviews of Scott Bessent, etc. Itâs a matter of fact that the US has a debt problem, they literally have to spend ~$1T on interest alone - and they are tackling it (deregulation, tariffs, DOGE, âŠ). Will it work? Who knows, I personally believe it will. But at least somebody is doing something.
I donât find it moronic!
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If considered successful stateside the same pattern will be applied again and again, wash, rinse, repeat. Mar a Lago accord, NATO, you name it. Appeaselings get punished and mocked on top of it, see below. One would hope TPTB ex-US would look through that and act accordingly.
Trump claimed: âIâm telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are. They are dying to make a deal.â Mocking the pleas of foreign leaders, he parodied: âPlease, please, sir, make a deal. Iâll do anything. Iâll do anything, sir!â
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