Actually whatever you need to use for next 5 years shouldn’t be in stocks at any moment. That’s of course the case for retirement but can be other use cases too
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Well, of course. I really don’t understand how so many people - not here - have so little self awareness.
This whole thing makes me very happy on a character development level, I thought I’d shit myself whenever a nice big drop came, but I’m not.
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Do nothing, unless you couldnt sleep the lastvfew nights. Then, take this as an opportunity to review your Asset Allocation. And if you want to do so, my gut feel is that I would not sell now but probably on Friday Afternoon.
Personally, I did nothing post my End of Mmarch invest, and I won‘t do anything until my End of June Invest
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You were a bit off on the timing but I find the sequence of events quite interesting and they kind of played out in this fashion
Including the bond sell off 
My reason for believing there’s long way down is because every time he did anything outrageous, and people were in disbelief, there were those who quickly pointed out “but hey, he’s actually doing exactly what he said he would do”.
The crying wolf story is telling, and the danger in games of brinkmanship is that at some point the wolf really does come, and the villagers never come for help.
And besides, what sort of bullcrap are they spewing, I now saw the tariffs for China went up to 125% apparently. Tomorrow and the next 6 months will be great entertainment. After all, he managed to bankrupt a casino, where people come to give money and leave with nothing, his one success is on TV 
Edit 2: a key difference between Trump and Jinping is that China can crush Trump, and do it while most of the population will be cheering along.
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F me, I need to go to the polymarkets now. 
(Missed just the part of China - no penguins there)
Have a look at VWRL vs VGWL. 10 EUR difference. I wonder how many people will try to buy the former tomorrow morning.
Bull case, and somewhat plausible: Trump is flexing tariffs up to scare, then will flex them down to show he’s listening, then offer relatively soft deals to trading partners to be sure they’ll be accepted so he has a narrative that he crushed the whole world to his iron will, and countries will accept them to prompt him to eff off to Florida to play golf and fondle bimbos with plastic lips, and wait it out while building up in a quieter time until he’s gone.
I’m pretty sure that other countries will have to agree to put tariffs on China.
You will find my take moronic, but I do believe his team has a plan. Don’t listen to Trump, he talks too much, better listen to the interviews of Scott Bessent, etc. It’s a matter of fact that the US has a debt problem, they literally have to spend ~$1T on interest alone - and they are tackling it (deregulation, tariffs, DOGE, …). Will it work? Who knows, I personally believe it will. But at least somebody is doing something.
I don’t find it moronic!
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If considered successful stateside the same pattern will be applied again and again, wash, rinse, repeat. Mar a Lago accord, NATO, you name it. Appeaselings get punished and mocked on top of it, see below. One would hope TPTB ex-US would look through that and act accordingly.
Trump claimed: “I’m telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are. They are dying to make a deal.” Mocking the pleas of foreign leaders, he parodied: “Please, please, sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything. I’ll do anything, sir!”
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User Pekotski is silenced for aggressive behavior and direct insults.
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To be fair, even with the pause there’s still a global 10% tariff, that’s still a fairly big change (imagine if you had a 10% VAT added overnight).
(that’s the thing with doing something outrageous and rolling back, where you end up is still very different from where you started).
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So Trump blinked. I guess China gave him a way out - he can still look tough while walking back nearly all the reciprocal tariffs.
I think in the end some agreement will be reached, but I think the stock market may have suffered some permanent damage as investors have been rattled and are unlikely to be as enthusiastic as before… then again, we are known to have short memories…
I’ve been waiting for a blow off top for years now and I think the successful resolution of the Trump tariffs (including China) could finally be it.
Yep, the goldfish on reddit are rejoicing like it’s all fine. This is not even a dead cat bounce, there’s ways down left, my estimate remains 4000-4200 for the S&P500, as do my buy targets.
@PhilMongoose how did Trump blink when he hiked tariffs for China?
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If countries don’t learn a lesson now, then they should not complain when they get bullied next time around.
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What happened today is the proof that people forget very easily… All this thing about loosing confidence may make sense for leaders and geopolitics but for the stockmarket is another story.
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Let’s generously assume there is a plan; implementation is still amateurish at best and a disaster at worst for nobody bothering to do their homework.
Indiscriminate DOGE cuts may end up costing more than they saved.
Abrupt tariff moves spook markets and lastingly destroy credibility in the US as a whole. People like Navarro spouting obvious BS on TV will not help. Naming the tariffs ‚reciprocal’ if they are anything but doesn’t help either. And what are they about - additional government revenue, or clawing back blue collar jobs - both at the same time won’t work, right? Those $1t in interest may actually grow if treasuries continue to sell off.
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