Chronicles of 2025

Yea they are pretty different. Rentech doesn’t look at company statements or any investemets fundamentals whatsoever (as far as I know). They make highly leveraged arbitrage trades and other wizardry their algos abuse.

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Damn it, looks like another -5% day.

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Don’t you mean Yipee / Yay / YahOooOOo… ? Since you aren’t close to retirement, this is just the market giving us some sale prices. :smiley:

Do I think it can go much lower? YES, and I welcome that too. Just keep adding…

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https://x.com/naiivememe/status/1908430154759876823?t=uAkUnvyIflIPYEDZSA5Ovw

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If you guys wonder if this was a „buy the dip“ day. Wait until Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Today will be red, tomorrow may be green, but Wednesday / Thursday will be deep red. And even worse, I expect the USD Bond Selloff to start on Thursday. Meaning that over the Weekend, people will realise that quite a bit was broken. That will give us on Friday or the following Monday a very red day… so Tuesday / Wednesday in a week are first buy the dip days.

Things may very likely go one step further down from there but for a first buy, the timing may be great.

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Stoxx600, SMI, Nikkei & CSI 300 down 7-8% today
It is a black Monday afterall

I think this is very serious now & can break down financial markets. Even strong supporters of Trump are publicly critical but US govt continues to be arrogant.

Makes me wonder if something worse is coming and all this is more than just Tariffs

“Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe,” Ackman said.

“The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative. This is not what we voted for,” the hedge fund manager said.

Trump has the opportunity to call for a timeout for any negotiations to resolve any “unfair” tariff deals.

“Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down,” he said.

And how could/would you/we know that?

I mean, it might make sense to expect such development in a “static rational” world,
but T. might wake up tomorrow and be like
“Yeah nah I was just mucking around, we’ll revert all the tarrifs except for the penguin islands - they are really NOT pulling their weight”.

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This can be over in one hour. Congress just needs to lift all tarifs. Which they might when even the last idiot in the US gets pissed.

Or maybe they will think it‘s all Bidens fault.

r/investing discovered SQQQ, could be a sign a local bottom is near. Certainly a sign for me not to touch it with a ten foot pole :slight_smile:

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Certainly not. You should not indulge into shorts.

Congress is weak and have no strength to stand up to Trump. That was the whole idea of first two months chaos, name calling, breaking the law, firing officials and breaking down the back of law firms.

To be honest I think Trump has trapped himself with this move. It’s like Russia invading Ukraine. They thought it was a great move , most likely realised it wasn’t but then there was no way to back out because that would have meant accepting that you are wrong.

For Trump taking a step back would be difficult because he might see it as showing weakness. So let’s see if Trump’s ego is more important than his own country’s economy

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Eh, it did print last week, and could possibly print this week too, people with more guts than me did use the tools at hand. Let’s see if CAOS prints too, another one I missed…

Yes but shorts are for traders. You are an investor :slight_smile:

Don’t forget

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I think there are ways out of Trump if he wanted to. But remember that his key campaign promise was to raise tariffs and bring manufacturing back to the US. With these policies, he’s trying to do exactly that.

I don’t think he will fold immediately because of the negative reaction. In fact, he anticipated and warned about this. The key question is how much pain the US can take and how much political heat can Trump survive?

The problem I see for Trump is that his plan is a long term plan that will take years/decades to really implement. In reality, he’s got 2 years until the mid-term elections.

Also, given his history of flip-flopping on issues, I think many will be sceptical that the tariffs will last. Outside of a few cases, I don’t think they’ll have confidence to immediately start re-locating factories to the US given the uncertainty.

My guess is that 10% tariffs are here to stay and maybe he’ll get some offers to be able to pull back on the reciprocal tariffs.

I was thinking over the weekend it’s probably a good time to all-in the 3A contributions for the year (0 for me yet as per my plan), it’s an instant and guaranteed 28% ROI on the CHF 7,258. @jks21 did you take the plunge? Any thoughts on the 3A? Edit 2: nobody’s making money with longing all-world this year in my opinion, so while the 3A is locking money in, it’s now looking very attractive.

Edit: OMFG -7% VWRL at open, CHF 100.00, same price as when I first got it on the first week of Jan 2024

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And same as March 2021. Looks like Biden was not so bad afterall :slight_smile: Trump erased all the gains from Biden era in few months

days…

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There is no plan. Applying 46% tariffs on Vietnam, 31% for CH and 34% for China cannot be part of any plan. This is pure whims & fancy and ill advise.

I can understand EU 20% because of VAT. (Even though again illogical argument)

If the plan was to take manufacturing back to the US, wasn’t easier to just put pressure on the companies instead of the countries?
I think the plan was to really destroy the market. So this week might keep going down.
I just wonder if someone knows the rules of all big pension plans and funds. If they have a rule that they have to sell after X% down then we might see the beginning of another bigger selloff.

Safe haven currency CHF showing its strength again.
Jumping 2% against € and USD.

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