Chronicles of 2025

r/investing discovered SQQQ, could be a sign a local bottom is near. Certainly a sign for me not to touch it with a ten foot pole :slight_smile:

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Certainly not. You should not indulge into shorts.

Congress is weak and have no strength to stand up to Trump. That was the whole idea of first two months chaos, name calling, breaking the law, firing officials and breaking down the back of law firms.

To be honest I think Trump has trapped himself with this move. It’s like Russia invading Ukraine. They thought it was a great move , most likely realised it wasn’t but then there was no way to back out because that would have meant accepting that you are wrong.

For Trump taking a step back would be difficult because he might see it as showing weakness. So let’s see if Trump’s ego is more important than his own country’s economy

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Eh, it did print last week, and could possibly print this week too, people with more guts than me did use the tools at hand. Let’s see if CAOS prints too, another one I missed


Yes but shorts are for traders. You are an investor :slight_smile:

Don’t forget

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I think there are ways out of Trump if he wanted to. But remember that his key campaign promise was to raise tariffs and bring manufacturing back to the US. With these policies, he’s trying to do exactly that.

I don’t think he will fold immediately because of the negative reaction. In fact, he anticipated and warned about this. The key question is how much pain the US can take and how much political heat can Trump survive?

The problem I see for Trump is that his plan is a long term plan that will take years/decades to really implement. In reality, he’s got 2 years until the mid-term elections.

Also, given his history of flip-flopping on issues, I think many will be sceptical that the tariffs will last. Outside of a few cases, I don’t think they’ll have confidence to immediately start re-locating factories to the US given the uncertainty.

My guess is that 10% tariffs are here to stay and maybe he’ll get some offers to be able to pull back on the reciprocal tariffs.

I was thinking over the weekend it’s probably a good time to all-in the 3A contributions for the year (0 for me yet as per my plan), it’s an instant and guaranteed 28% ROI on the CHF 7,258. @jks21 did you take the plunge? Any thoughts on the 3A? Edit 2: nobody’s making money with longing all-world this year in my opinion, so while the 3A is locking money in, it’s now looking very attractive.

Edit: OMFG -7% VWRL at open, CHF 100.00, same price as when I first got it on the first week of Jan 2024

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And same as March 2021. Looks like Biden was not so bad afterall :slight_smile: Trump erased all the gains from Biden era in few months

days


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There is no plan. Applying 46% tariffs on Vietnam, 31% for CH and 34% for China cannot be part of any plan. This is pure whims & fancy and ill advise.

I can understand EU 20% because of VAT. (Even though again illogical argument)

If the plan was to take manufacturing back to the US, wasn’t easier to just put pressure on the companies instead of the countries?
I think the plan was to really destroy the market. So this week might keep going down.
I just wonder if someone knows the rules of all big pension plans and funds. If they have a rule that they have to sell after X% down then we might see the beginning of another bigger selloff.

Safe haven currency CHF showing its strength again.
Jumping 2% against € and USD.

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I believe this is putting pressure on companies. That’s why stocks are falling

In the end countries don’t pay tariffs, importing companies do and exploring companies lose business

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Fun fact -: if I had any regrets for not investing enough during last 4 years since I started investing, now is the time

SSAC CHF is back to the levels of Feb 2021. And since it’s acc ETF, it represents total gains.

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I think what people are afraid of is if the long-only funds start rotating (think big pension funds), from what I understand so far it’s only short term investors who pulled back.

Market crash on first page of mainstream Newspapers + Jim Cramer predicts 20% more drop
That’s a buying signal for me :face_with_tongue:

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I don’t see how the current situation affects the decision about 3a.
Our 3a returns will perform (almost) as bad/good as e.g VWRL.
The reason for not putting more money there is the potential much high taxation (45%?) in case of retiring outside Switzerland. This hasn’t changed. So


In case the tax turns out to be far less we can always fill the gaps the following years

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Right, was talking about ROI for the 3A in terms of the tax savings from the contributions, not talking about the whole sum, just what happens to this year’s tranche.

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Now you reminded me to set up my 3a payments.

If you are looking for a false psychological boost due to the current blood bath, you can do it :slight_smile:
Gaining 28% “theoretically now” (the money are locked) and paying 45% (applied on the capital+returns) later doesn’t seem to be a good idea though :slight_smile:

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