Chronicles of 2025

I don’t look for performance primary, but for cash flow and low volatility as this is my main source of income. And I probably don’t like 400 of the 500 companies contained in the SP500.

But of course, after such a long time with such a performance difference the momentum strategy has almost overtaken the dividend strategy in size. But I’m not ignoring the higher risk, you can only buy such performance with volatility.

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Sir, you mixed up the sequence of the pictures.

Swiss response seems to be in line of providing state backed investment guarantees to USA to avoid tariffs

I find it interesting

  • Switzerland has no tariffs for US imports except for meat maybe.
  • US applied 31% tariff on CH anyways
  • Now Switzerland would invest in US to get out of tariffs which were unjustified to start with. I hope this makes business sense as well and not just paying the bully
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Best thing is this even.

Just because of US gold import, we got 12% more tariff…

I think it‘s a smart approach. Makes Trump be able to save face and we are not just throwing money away. And if you postpone it long enough, he is out of office by that point.

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more funny: isn’t gold exempted from the new tariffs?

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Yeah but not from random calculations

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There’s business men and women and there’s the GOAT whose business is investing.

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I would argue that Jim Simons is far greater.

Jim Simons was a trader though, Buffett’s record in compounded gains is unmatched.

I don‘t get what you‘re trying to say. RenTechs performance of the last 30+ years is unmatched. They never had a negative year, not even in 2001 and 2008.

… and let’s not forget the half-a$$ed assumptions („let‘s set ɸ to 0.25 that will give us a large tariff number“) :wink:

Even with the additional explanation, some economists dismissed the exercise as blatantly amateurish. (Douglas Holtz-Eakin of the conservative American Action Forum called it “malpractice”). Meanwhile, some of the professors who found their own studies cited went public to express their bafflement. Alberto Cavallo, an economist at Harvard Business School who co-authored one paper included in the administration’s bibliography, tweeted that if Trump officials had applied his research correctly, the tariffs would have “come out about four times smaller.”

https://www.aei.org/economics/president-trumps-tariff-formula-makes-no-economic-sense-its-also-based-on-an-error/

What I am saying is that Rentech are traders, not investors, their model can’t compound so they never let it become too big. All I’m saying is that Simons and Buffett are different, one’s a trader the other is an investor so I don’t compare them as it’s not an apples to apples comparison.

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Yea they are pretty different. Rentech doesn’t look at company statements or any investemets fundamentals whatsoever (as far as I know). They make highly leveraged arbitrage trades and other wizardry their algos abuse.

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Damn it, looks like another -5% day.

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Don’t you mean Yipee / Yay / YahOooOOo… ? Since you aren’t close to retirement, this is just the market giving us some sale prices. :smiley:

Do I think it can go much lower? YES, and I welcome that too. Just keep adding…

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https://x.com/naiivememe/status/1908430154759876823?t=uAkUnvyIflIPYEDZSA5Ovw

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If you guys wonder if this was a „buy the dip“ day. Wait until Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Today will be red, tomorrow may be green, but Wednesday / Thursday will be deep red. And even worse, I expect the USD Bond Selloff to start on Thursday. Meaning that over the Weekend, people will realise that quite a bit was broken. That will give us on Friday or the following Monday a very red day… so Tuesday / Wednesday in a week are first buy the dip days.

Things may very likely go one step further down from there but for a first buy, the timing may be great.

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Stoxx600, SMI, Nikkei & CSI 300 down 7-8% today
It is a black Monday afterall

I think this is very serious now & can break down financial markets. Even strong supporters of Trump are publicly critical but US govt continues to be arrogant.

Makes me wonder if something worse is coming and all this is more than just Tariffs

“Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe,” Ackman said.

“The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative. This is not what we voted for,” the hedge fund manager said.

Trump has the opportunity to call for a timeout for any negotiations to resolve any “unfair” tariff deals.

“Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down,” he said.

And how could/would you/we know that?

I mean, it might make sense to expect such development in a “static rational” world,
but T. might wake up tomorrow and be like
“Yeah nah I was just mucking around, we’ll revert all the tarrifs except for the penguin islands - they are really NOT pulling their weight”.

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This can be over in one hour. Congress just needs to lift all tarifs. Which they might when even the last idiot in the US gets pissed.

Or maybe they will think it‘s all Bidens fault.