The unspoken rationale probably was to support Elon in times of distres…
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Chill and ride it out. Don’t try to apply logic to this, it’s all emotional. I am amazed with some of you here, you’re all smart and educated yet still haven’t gotten past the denial stage of grief.
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Great maybe market timing will work in the end 
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Hasn’t it been pretty clear for about a month or so that he wasn’t bluffing with his tariff plans?
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Month? There was a link I think Abs shared earlier in this thread saying that utter disdain for Europe (and most other places in the world) and feeling that everyone is taking advantage of the US is what Trump’s been saying for 25 years. The same link was saying that senior Republican donors are “in shock” that he’s actually doing what he said he would be. Guess they haven’t gotten past the denial stage either.
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Or they secretly hoped that the POTUS can’t be that stupid to actually implement these things and they have only been a negotiating rhetoric to win votes.
BTW, where the heck are the checks and balances of the US in these days? I hoped they would work much more effectively than letting a lunatic so loose.
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That bit is what surprises me still, indeed. Blatantly illegal executive orders which are then enforced without question. It’s what makes me think it’s an all in.
Sure, judges here and there block things but then are faced with minutia, legal acts from 1789 (for real) and the damage is ultimately done by creating precedent. I’d seriously wonder if judges and other officials have personal fears about armies of AI bots hounding them forever and take a stance of “we’ll fix it when he’s gone”. Also, the police people enforcing the orders are people too, they probably fear for their job, health insurance, pension, private life being demolished by social media bots.
It’s quite dystopian and indeed unlike what we’d been conditioned to expect from a country like the US over the last 70 years or so. Of course it’ll impact the market, buying opportunity, I say!
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It’s been pretty clear since 2020, when Mitch McConnel delayed trying Trump for the Jan 6 insurrection until after he left office and Senate Republicans used that to not convict him afterwards that there is no more meaningful check on Trump to be expected from Republicans. Since they won a majority in both the House and Senate, and that those are the ones meant to keep check on the Executive, checks and balances aren’t applied.
To be fair, the Democratic leadership seems to also be in denial, thinking this will pass without them mounting a meaningful opposition and seem to be simply waiting it out.
Given everything we know of Trump at this point, that would be the denial stage of grief. 
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Biden pardoning his son was in a way necessary, to shield him from being hounded the moment he was no longer POTUS, but it gave leverage to Republicans to say “Hey, you guys do the same”. Democrats have been very cuddly and naive thinking that if they follow due process, which they and everyone else must do in a democracy, the same courtesy would be afforded to them too. I mean there’s MAGAs calling Derek Chauvin a “hero” and asking for his pardon. It makes me want to vomit that they’re so far gone. The rulebook has been thrown out the window, I have many more opinions as to why, some of which are somewhat sympathetic to MAGAs, but don’t want to stretch our mods’ benevolence any more.
There are two school of thoughts
- US wants to reshore manufacturing of Auto , metals & Pharma and maybe more
- US wants to show to the world that they are willing to take short term pain to force the world to do what US wants (convert debt into zero coupon century bonds, support foreign policy etc) and thus all of this is pressure tactics
My personal hope is that it’s first one. US can do whatever they want & raise trade barriers if needed. And the world should learn how to do a better job working without US
(US accounts for 13% of global trade but is trying to dictate everyone)
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I did a slightly different one: dot-com SPY peak to last Tuesday (as I didn’t fully grok what date ranges the two of you were actually suggesting).
Still pretty painful to look at … even with a 2% tolerance of weekly prices hitting the power line between dot-com peak to March 25 2025 there were only 21 matches …
Had there not been a recent correction, there would be even fewer red dots … like, maybe the beginning and the end and a bunch centered around the turn of the year from 2024 to 2025.
The lesson for prospect portfolio managers is to choose the right timeframe to support your thesis for your product.
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I was talking about the exponentially rising part from the beginning of your previous graph to the dot-com peak somewhen in 2000-2001.
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Oh, we’re still mostly on track for that.
I unleashed Goofy-H/DI* at this sophisticated modelling suggestion:
Give it a year or two for AI to do its magic and double the SPY and we’ll have plenty of matching red dots on that new blue line.
Have faith, @Dr.PI …
* H/DI: Human/Dog Intelligence.
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Soon it will be time to buy more UPRO and TQQQ. Can anyone give me the signal?
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You mean a … er, Signal group that discusses sensitive things?
Probably unlikely that you get added as it’s typically restricted to politicians and occasionally journalists.
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Dammit. I just bought already a minute ago! That’s probably your signal.
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My personal signal is -15% from ATH in the S&P500/NASDAQ100, but I’d only be getting TQQQ, or even FNGU, 3xS&P500 is too vanilla for betting and NASDAQ100 is too arbitrary of an index, if you wanna bet go full hog, champagne, prostitutes, mobsters etc.
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You want to let it drop even further?
Whenever you are ready, just tell us.
Cortana doesn’t time the market, the market times Cortana.
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“Consumer staples climb” is a headline I am seeing right now. As always, when push comes to shove people still need soap, toothpaste, baked beans etc and not microchips