I know what it means, I am just challenging “astronomical”. I mean, if we’re going full hog “world’s best insider trader” it’d be fun to see what could be done assuming perfect use of leverage both upwards and downwards.
ChatGPT says this, probably can be much improved with a better worded question: https://chatgpt.com/share/67d6a797-7318-8000-8735-b2563db7bbe7
See here. It seems more than 40% of the trading days have negative returns.
Imagine if you were able to magically eliminate them from your investment portfolio exposure. I don’t think CAGR difference would be 2-3%. I think it would be much much higher.
Why do both of you think? Go on Yahoo finance, download the data, and just calculate it.
Probably because Abs_max doesn’t have the time, and definitely because I don’t have the skill 
Yeah. Don’t have access to laptop right now.
Will calculate 2024 data when I do have access
Why not ask ChatGPT? I gave it the last 12 months of the SP500.
@Mirager
It’s a huge difference, like 14x better return.
It is, but given loads of people around the world have gotten the same longing lucky or dead obvious stock picks like nVidia in 2022 I don’t see it as astronomical. I’d see 100-500x as astronomical.
I think that’s how RenTech is actually doing it with the Medallion Fund. Being right 55% of the time and using a lot of leverage.
But weren’t we talking about 20 year period ?
Do this for 20 years and I think numbers would be staggering due to compounding
Well yes. The difference would grow astronomically after only a couple of years, for example 10 years: +148% vs. 474’530% (3’200x better return).
Of course, or hold Berkshire from when Warren Buffett was an unknown fund manager in the least likely place to find a fund manager 
I think finding Berkshire would have been nothing compared to finding the magic mirror which tells you which days are negative for S&P 500 in advance.
Your table shows 10% additional gains per year. The magic mirror will means maybe 100-200% additional gains per year.
Right, sure, but Berkshire exists whereas the magic mirror doesn’t
Anyway we’ve exhausted this mental exercise. Just to give credit, it’s Warren Buffett’s table, there’s one for each year since 1965 in the last pages of the annual shareholder letters. These shareholder letters are great reading by the way, educational, funny, insightful.
Yup. Back to DCA every month and maintaining strategic asset allocation
Only thing I am seriously considering is reducing my weight for US equities down from 50% current to somewhere in 40-45% range. Mainly for risk management purposes.
I sold 9k which I want to reinvest at lower prices. Maybe market timing will work for me now after all the unlucky lump sum investments of the last couple of years 
If markets only go up from here I‘ll know that I live in a simulation.
It‘s the compounding, a few years in a row and you have your 1000x
E: too late to the party
This is the epitome of what one should not do 
literally buying high and selling low.
What this tells me is that you are not comfortable with your asset allocation.
Certainly not being above 100% stocks.
The last 8% has been erases by the same person. Local top?
I have established the following rules for investment decisions for my ETF portfolio:
==
With dividends and salary savings continuously pushing the equities share downward, buy signals will emerge from time to time, even in a flat market.
Interesting times.
6% cash & emergency fund
10% real estate
39% 2nd pillar and life insurance (cannot be reduced…)