Yeah. Don’t have access to laptop right now.
Will calculate 2024 data when I do have access
Why not ask ChatGPT? I gave it the last 12 months of the SP500.
- Actual total return: 9.51%
- Hypothetical total return (avoiding all negative days): 133.15%
@Mirager
It’s a huge difference, like 14x better return.
It is, but given loads of people around the world have gotten the same longing lucky or dead obvious stock picks like nVidia in 2022 I don’t see it as astronomical. I’d see 100-500x as astronomical.
I think that’s how RenTech is actually doing it with the Medallion Fund. Being right 55% of the time and using a lot of leverage.
But weren’t we talking about 20 year period ?
Do this for 20 years and I think numbers would be staggering due to compounding
Well yes. The difference would grow astronomically after only a couple of years, for example 10 years: +148% vs. 474’530% (3’200x better return).
Of course, or hold Berkshire from when Warren Buffett was an unknown fund manager in the least likely place to find a fund manager 
I think finding Berkshire would have been nothing compared to finding the magic mirror which tells you which days are negative for S&P 500 in advance.
Your table shows 10% additional gains per year. The magic mirror will means maybe 100-200% additional gains per year.
Right, sure, but Berkshire exists whereas the magic mirror doesn’t
Anyway we’ve exhausted this mental exercise. Just to give credit, it’s Warren Buffett’s table, there’s one for each year since 1965 in the last pages of the annual shareholder letters. These shareholder letters are great reading by the way, educational, funny, insightful.
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Yup. Back to DCA every month and maintaining strategic asset allocation
Only thing I am seriously considering is reducing my weight for US equities down from 50% current to somewhere in 40-45% range. Mainly for risk management purposes.
I sold 9k which I want to reinvest at lower prices. Maybe market timing will work for me now after all the unlucky lump sum investments of the last couple of years 
If markets only go up from here I‘ll know that I live in a simulation.
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It‘s the compounding, a few years in a row and you have your 1000x
E: too late to the party
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This is the epitome of what one should not do 
literally buying high and selling low.
What this tells me is that you are not comfortable with your asset allocation.
Certainly not being above 100% stocks.
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The last 8% has been erases by the same person. Local top?
I have established the following rules for investment decisions for my ETF portfolio:
- Invest available cash if equities make up < 45% of net worth
- Reinvest only dividends if equities are between 45%-46% of net worth
- Take no action if equitities are between 46%-47% of net worth
- Sell down to 46% if equitites exceed > 47% of net worth
==
- For most of 2024, I was in scenario (2).
- End of January 2025, I found myself in scenario (3) for the first time ever.
- In February, I briefly moved into scenario (4) for a couple of days, but was back to (2) by the end of the month.
- Now, I’m almost back to scenario (1). Thanks to my approach I’ll have cash ready to deploy at the beginning of April, if my system calls for it.
With dividends and salary savings continuously pushing the equities share downward, buy signals will emerge from time to time, even in a flat market.
Interesting times.
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6% cash & emergency fund
10% real estate
39% 2nd pillar and life insurance (cannot be reduced…)
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Maybe for me, but not for my kids, they’ll get the BRK shares
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From today’s WSJ “The 10-Point” newsletter:
The days of set-and-forget investing just ended for many Americans.
After the S&P 500 fell into correction territory this past week, many investors ditched U.S. stocks amid fears the economy is sliding toward recession. In the first half of March, individual investors have been trading in their 401(k)s at more than four times the normal level, according to record keeper Alight Solutions. Investors who have dumped U.S. stocks say they’re searching for stability in money-market funds, short-term bonds, gold and international markets.
Time for a little fearmongering from Goofy on a rainy Sunday afternoon …
Consumer sentiment deteriorating rapidly:
(Source)
Note: ticks on the time axis are 13 months apart (not quite sure why).
Original Source: Consumer Sentiment Deteriorating Rapidly - Apollo Academy
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Lambs to slaughter.