See? What bubble?
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Exactly, those dotcom doomers are just permabears!
Also, Cisco was on my screeners for years and years, but I just had an irrational aversion to it and so never bought with conviction.
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2025 was the year of mini quant-quakes.
Some interesting tidbits in there. 2025 was not kind to trend following.
The WSJ has a similar article: Renaissance Explores Tweak to Trading Models After Meme-Stock Volatility
No it really wasnât, my portfolio is crying.
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I was surprised that even Renaissance was facing problems⊠until I read âRenaissance told clientsâ. So its their public funds not doing so well. What about the phenomenal Medallion fund, thats the interesting part. Up 20% this year. Returns of 40% p.a. over 30 years, with 5% fee and 36% performance fee, thats the way to do it 
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New all-time high on Thursday, best year so far measured in Dollars (not in percent). Best of 45 yearsâŠ
Trend following in stocks works less than momentum, it works best in futures. Andreas Clenow wrote two excellent books about each of that worlds. My personal definition: trend following looks at past prices of the same instrument while momentum compares all instruments. If you have a lot of correlating instruments (like stocks) you may not be able to find a good trend in a very long time, while you always find some kind of momentum.
I use the factors momentum and value in my mechanical momentum strategy and carry, value and momentum in my dividend strategy.
15 losing trades in my momentum strategy this year and still up 23.63% YTD. One good trend pays for them allâŠ
I donât think it makes sense for a swiss person spending most of ones time and money in Switzerland and CHF to gauge up the numbers by using USD.
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I can help psychologically by masking the YTD double digit fall in USD vs CHF. Same way private equity hides losses by not marking to market and then claiming they are less volatile.
I remember reading that accounts that do best were those from dead people or those whoâd forgotten about the accounts and so never looked at them and never got the chance to panic and sell.
if only finpension had a momentum ETF 
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Sorry, why do you think I do that? I donât. But due to the crazy real estate boom in Switzerland I have too much in CHF and I donât like that.
Anyhow, we discussed this over and over again. Forex is peanuts compared with stocks long term.
Isnât your tax domicile Switzerland? Maybe I remembered wrong from other threads though.
Tax domicile doesnât matter if you are travelling 24/7 and spending USD.
On the other hand, with CHF you got another ca. 12% gains ytd, so you can spend more USD
I think we should start measuring everything in Turkish lira. Every year there will be positive gain
Anyhow. I think 2025 have been bizarre. Even though it feels like US is dominating in tech and geo politics, almost every other region stock markets have outperformed US stocks except India. I remember reading an article that stocks tend to do better in democrat regime for some reason
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i guess it looks different if we expand the timeline a few years.
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Precursor to the Chronicles of 2026 âŠ
Just saw this discussed on the most recent episode of The Compound (really fun episode with Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal of Odd Lots fame):
I lean towards Scotiabank, but weâll see (
).
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Ben Felix has done a video on it, US stocks have done far better under the regime of the commies and terrorists than under the party of business, Bible and country. A Mirager-style explanation is that, like vaccines, people have it too good under Democrats and forget what polio and starvation is like, so they get goaded to vote for GOP, then feel the pain they deserve and go back, over and over. Or as Iâve read âhard times make hard men, hard men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make hard timesâ.
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Oh yeah, I go over this in my âshare your storyâ post, Greeks have generational PTSD over that!
Edit @xerox5003 to add insult to injury, this chart is just the chart of a Greek large cap mutual fund, the reality on the ground was that people were trading and betting on single stocks, with leverage, margin loans and options, with tens of predatory Stratton Oakmont-like âinvestmentâ firms with high-pressure sales tactics calling unsophisticated people 24/7, and rampant (and legal, because of a weak regulatory framework, because why not) insider trading. Very vert few people made unfathomable amounts of money, most who played at that time lost everything and destroyed themselves.
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expanding timeline would not change 2025 performance
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