Chronicles of 2025

Investing / Others
3759

Added Deepseek and Z.ai.

And Qwen.

1 Like
3760

I use CGPT free, and Copilot I get from my company.

At this stage I probably wouldn‘t sunscribe yet to any service. It‘s still too hit and miss, and for the occasional questions I have, free is basically enough.

3761

FWIW, having access to paid tiers at work, the difference seems enormous to me. (if you’re willing to wait 10-30s to get an answer, but then the answer is likely correct)

2 Likes
3762

I also run some models locally. I used one to solve a math problem. It was great to set it running and come back in 5 minutes and watch it churn out 40k tokens of reasoning. I even found the right answer in the middle of it!

3763

Perplexity – subscription (free) is missing :wink:

3764

It is there, I used it. Although I mine was technically not a free subscription but one I got free with a Sunrise offer. I will not renew it once the free sub runs out.

3765

If you’re interested in a short and refreshing Sunday evening read, I recommend David Einhorn’s Q3 investment letter. Finally found the full letter here: Qlet2025-03.pdf

I’ve already quoted from this letter (on loss-making $1 customer revenue that cascades into more than $8 of aggregate AI revenue across the supply chain) on this forum (in post Chronicles of 2025 - #3528 by Your_Full_Name).

Here’s a different teaser quote from that letter:

McKinsey & Company estimates cumulative total spending of $6.7 trillion on data centers
globally through 2030, including $5.2 trillion in capital expenditures on those equipped to handle AI processing. But where will the nearly $7 trillion come from? In 2024, before the major ramp-up in capital spending, the Magnificent 7 generated about $500 billion in combined cash flow. Roughly half went to buybacks and dividends, about a third to capital spending, and the small remainder was split among M&A, debt repayment, and cash accumulation. Even if they cut buybacks and dividends, the Magnificent 7 can’t do the whole AI spend without taking on a lot of leverage.

The total book equity of the Magnificent 7 is about $1 trillion. Unspent dry powder in the
private equity and venture capital industries stands at roughly $2.5 trillion and $300 billion, respectively. Wall Street’s biggest year for IPOs and secondary offerings raised about $300 billion. Even if all this capital were dedicated to AI investment, it would still leave a multi-trillion-dollar gap – one that would need to be filled through debt and leases. For context, the record year for U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt issuance was $1.2 trillion.

And what about the revenue that might create a return on such a massive investment? Today, total global annual advertising spend is about $1 trillion, while all paid subscriptions in media, software, cloud, and related services accumulate to another $1 trillion.

According to Bain & Company, AI revenues would need to reach $2 trillion by 2030 to generate an adequate return on the AI investment. In other words, that would be about 100% of today’s global advertising and subscriptions combined.

Something has to give.

5 Likes
3766

McKinsey daily rates, probably.

If they estimate such numbers and will go into DC build instead of saying that these are aspirational numbers that don’t look realistic in the long run.

1 Like
3767

Here’s another:

The Greenlight Capital funds (the “Partnerships”) returned -3.6% in the third quarter of 2025, net of fees and expenses, compared to 8.1% for the S&P 500 index, bringing our year-to-date return to 0.4%, compared to 14.8% for the index

3 Likes
3768

Ouch Novo :frowning:

3769

It’s easy, just BTFD
(But wear gloves)

3770

Nah, among key issues is a non-diverse pipeline. Not saying they can’t or won’t turn it around but they’re in deep trouble now. They’re probably in Bayer territory now. I can’t invest in pharma anyway.

3771

If it drops further, it should find some technical support around $30 and $37.

3772

Dunno, what’s technical support? The pipeline has some interesting assets and the company has enough good meds on diabetes/weight loss and adjacent areas (and knows diabetes better than anyone on the planet) that it can churn and make money either way, however I doubt it’ll soar again any time soon.

3773

It’s a bit like tea leaves but less messy.

3 Likes
3774

Perplexity has the greatest value for me because it offers a wide variety of third-party models, including GPT, Sonar, Gemini, Grok, Claude, etc. for one flat price.

https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10354919-what-advanced-ai-models-are-included-in-my-subscription

1 Like
3775

Hmm. I just checked. I didn’t realise my Pro subscription came with $5 per month of API credits that I have been leaving unused!

3776

If it drops further, it should find some technical support around $30 and $37 at $0.

:wink:

1 Like
3777

I didn’t realize the amount of gold tether was buying (more than many central banks)

Based on the 116 tonnes of gold indicated in its end-September reserves attestation, Tether is “the largest holder of gold outside central banks”

(Client Challenge)

1 Like
3778

Interesting that they chose Switzerland.