If it drops further, it should find some technical support around $30 and $37.
Dunno, whatâs technical support? The pipeline has some interesting assets and the company has enough good meds on diabetes/weight loss and adjacent areas (and knows diabetes better than anyone on the planet) that it can churn and make money either way, however I doubt itâll soar again any time soon.
Itâs a bit like tea leaves but less messy.
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Perplexity has the greatest value for me because it offers a wide variety of third-party models, including GPT, Sonar, Gemini, Grok, Claude, etc. for one flat price.
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Hmm. I just checked. I didnât realise my Pro subscription came with $5 per month of API credits that I have been leaving unused!
If it drops further, it should find some technical support around $30 and $37 at $0.
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I didnât realize the amount of gold tether was buying (more than many central banks)
Based on the 116 tonnes of gold indicated in its end-September reserves attestation, Tether is âthe largest holder of gold outside central banksâ
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Interesting that they chose Switzerland.
I thought stablecoins were supposed to be backed by US treasury. Didnât realise they can buy gold too
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I lolâd.
I was part of the GOOG â still in my âinvesting? I have no clueâ phase â when we started with TPUs. Thought at the time that we were lightyears ahead in compute and LLMs than anyone else, but clueless about the business model (as always).
NVDA was just a GPU company at the time, then became a (provider of GPUs for) bitcoin mining company.
Now I (again) believe Google has a serious advantage in the space from a pure technology perspective. From a cash flow angle, they can easily finance their AI adventures without going into debt or funny circular investment deals.
Still not an active shareholder, though.
I thought they were still lacking some basic audits (versus just attestations) regarding their holdings (regarding treasuries backing their virtual dollars). But maybe things have changed in the mean time.
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Tether buys everything (incl crypto)
Do they also buy Tether?
Iâll see myself out âŠ
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thatâs crazy man, why arenât you? The stock already doubled this year, even though itâs not paying divvies.
It is paying divvies.
For the rest of your comment Iâm not sure if youâre just teasing me.
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You ought not to watch a stock you once sold.
So basically, Tether is just a vehicle for unregulated ETC products.
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Conceptually they probably mimic something closer to bank deposits (with self regulation tho 
).
They hold some risky assets but they also have some equity to absorb losses. (Donât ask me if it would pass a more stringent regulation like basel III)
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Enough crypto already! Back to AI âŠ
I for one am fascinated by the current narrative battles around Nvidia and AI (and Google).
Michael Burry â who cried wolf lots of times, admittedly â apparently posted his views on Nvidia on Substack a couple of days ago (Cassandra Unchained, paywalled). Ok, fine. Summary according to Gemini in points 1 and 2 in the footnote.[1]
Nvidia apparently feels like they have to respond by sending a private memo to Wall Street sell side analysts ⊠wait, what? Why respond at all? Anyway, their rebuttal is summarized in point 3 in the footnote.[1]
Michael Burry tweet responds again.
Another nice account of the narrative battles, summarized by Gemini:
The author argues that despite being the worldâs most valuable company, NVIDIA had to issue a rebuttal to short-sellers like Michael Burry because the sustainability of its 75% gross margins is fragile.
The reasons include:
- Customer Dependency: NVIDIAâs largest customers are unprofitable and rely on fickle investor capital to fund their massive hardware purchases.
- Uncertain Value Capture: It is unclear who will capture the massive value spread (e.g., 99.9% cost reduction in an MRI scan) created by AIâthe chip maker, the model maker, or the end application.
- The Real Rival: NVIDIAâs true competitor is Google, which controls the entire AI stack (TPUs, Gemini, data, and distribution) and is strategically focused on driving down costs, directly conflicting with NVIDIAâs strategy of maintaining high margins.
The text concludes that the current unit economics suggest AI may evolve into a commodity business where low cost ultimately wins, intensifying the conflict between the two giantsâ strategies.
1 Geminiâs summary:
Michael Burryâs recent post on his Substack newsletter, âCassandra Unchained,â is a powerful critique of the current AI boom, arguing that NVIDIA is the âCiscoâ of this cycle and that the rally is being inflated by aggressive accounting practices, particularly among NVIDIAâs major cloud customers.
Here is a summary of the key points from his post:
1. NVIDIA is the New Cisco
Burry draws a direct parallel between NVIDIAâs position today and Ciscoâs position at the peak of the dot-com bubble (1999â2000).2 Cisco sold the hardware (âpicks and shovelsâ) for the internet infrastructure buildout, which turned out to be catastrophic supply-side gluttony that far outpaced real demand. He suggests the massive investment promises in AI infrastructure today ($3 trillion over the next few years) mirror that same overbuilding.
2. The Core Accounting Trick: Depreciation
Burryâs central argument is not about NVIDIAâs own financial fraud, but rather the accounting methods of its customers (the âhyperscalersâ like Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle).
- The Allegation: These cloud giants are systematically extending the useful life of AI chips >and servers for depreciation purposes from the traditional 3 years to 5 or 6 years.
- The Impact: Since depreciation is a cost spread over time, extending the timeline artificially boosts current reported earnings for these customers, masking the true, massive cost of the AI hardware.6 Burry warned that companies could be overstating earnings by 20â27% if these depreciation timelines are out of sync with the rapid pace of chip cycles.
3. Rebuttal and Counter-Attack
NVIDIA reportedly sent a memo to Wall Street analysts to push back on Burryâs public criticisms. In his Substack, Burry dismissed NVIDIAâs memo as âdisingenuousâ and attacking âstraw men,â arguing that NVIDIA was deflecting criticism away from his actual concerns about customer depreciation.
4. Continued Bearish Stance
Burry reaffirmed that he stands by his analysis and disclosed that he still holds put options (a bearish bet) on both NVIDIA and Palantir. He is now using his paid newsletter to argue that this AI cycle is propped up by financial and accounting scaffolding that will not age well.
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IMO. It is obvious that the Nvidia margins are unsustainable.
However, they will still have a near monopoly position for a few more years where they can continue to enjoy monopoly margins. Maybe more years if intelligent robotics really comes soon.
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OK. I just crashed the market: I bought NVDA. Brace! Brace!
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