Yeah, SCHD/CHDVD carrying/buffering hard today. Mine’s about 40%, with BRK.
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Before people run check on their portfolios - in what is generally referred to as “the stock market”, nothing very special actually seems to have happened 
It’s down 3 or 4% from ATH.
Did I miss something?
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Nope. We’re all just waiting for the next boom to come.
I’m not sure why everybody is suddenly very negative. The fear/greed index is running at extreme fear.
It would be best to look at 10 year return of global stock markets rather than daily changes.
We always say investment horizon in stocks is 10 years or more. But then the narrative is always shaped by daily returns.
At this moment 10 year return of SSAC (CHF) stands at 123%. If for next 10 years it’s 50% , I am going to be satisfied
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Yeah it feels like people are getting used to those outstanding returns, they might be in for a surprise if there’s a reversion to the mean.
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/bait_on Kinda summarizes in a single sentence why Ben Felix and the total return folk are academic rather than pragmatic. /bait_off
Of course we say that, but it doesn’t mean we don’t have feelings. Even the best ideas fail in the lab, far more often than not. In this case the lab is us humans
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Yeah but still. If investment is meant to be long term, why we try to have feelings for daily returns.
Imagine if the market was only showing 10 year returns for everything. The world will be so calm 
Who cares about past 10 year returns. The past is the past. We should be looking to the future, not the past. That is irrelevant.
Got one last trade in before the weekend:
- Trimmed MRK
- Bought CRM
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Well, an analogy is losing weight. Losing weight is dead easy: just eat less and move more. What could be simpler than that, right? Well if it was that simple then Lilly wouldn’t have just hit 1 trillion valuation because people need external help to lose weight.
Now imagine someone doing 3 videos back to back, on top of 3 more in the past, saying “They JUST don’t GET it, just EAT LESS you DOLTS”. Would look pretty daft wouldn’t it?
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Actually I think this was wrong assumption in first place.
Calories in is in our control.
Calories out is decided by body + what exercises people do.
The first part of this equation depends a lot on other factors and hence GLP1 came into play too.
—
But I didn’t get the analogy. Measuring daily returns from equity is something that we have defined ourselves. We made it a KPI and now that KPI is driving reactions.
But is it a right KPI in first place?
Isn’t daily returns also in past?
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Looking at/worrying about the stock market is in our control.
(real) Gains or losses are decided by the market and what trades people do, and when.
Anyway, not important, I bought on Thursday and happy I did Oh crap that was market timing. I just googled “Ben Felix buy the dip” and whadayaknow, Party Pooper Extraordinaire has written an article against it, naturally. If he didn’t have 4 or 5 kids I’d begin wondering if the guy is a monk, living in spiritual happiness and rejecting dirty earthly delights like sex, buying a dip, income investing etc.
“Screenshot or it never happened” moment:
Sorry, will refrain from dragging the forum down anymore
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it depends at what point of the day.
At any point the day returns are in past . At least the ones we know about. Isn’t it
well, before market opens, the day’s returns will be in the future. i guess a sliver after open will be in the present.
Chatbot moats:
(Source)
Poll time …
Chatbots you use
- Chat-GPT – subscription
- Claude – subscription
- Deepseek – subscription
- Gemini – subscription
- Grok – subscription
- Meta AI – subscription
- Microsoft Copilot – subscription
- Perplexity – subscription
- Qwen – subsciption
- Z.ai – subscription
- Chat-GPT – free
- Claude – free
- Deepseek – free
- Gemini – free
- Grok – free
- Meta AI – free
- Microsoft Copilot – free
- Perplexity – free
- Qwen – free
- Z.ai – free
- Other
- None
0
voters
I’m mostly using Gemini these days. Mainly because I have a “free” professional tier subscription (grandfathered in through some GSuite voodoo), but also because I actually trust their privacy processes best (imagine that!). Obviously, it’s the only privacy program I know firsthand, but I’ll take it hand over fist over, say, Chat-GPT or Meta or Grok.
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You missed DeepSeek and Z.ai. The only 2 I pay for. Qwen is another I use.
I listened to an interview with a Z.ai employee. It was interesting because they asked a question about whether it was annoying that they released their open source models and everybody uses it and offers the models without paying them a dime and they have to compete with them (who have access to Western technology) when they also have to shoulder the R&D cost.
The reply was interesting and worth listening to in full, but their answer was multi-faceted and included:
- They need to grow the pie to be able to take a slice of it
- It is like a marketing cost
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Added Deepseek and Z.ai.
And Qwen.
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I use CGPT free, and Copilot I get from my company.
At this stage I probably wouldn‘t sunscribe yet to any service. It‘s still too hit and miss, and for the occasional questions I have, free is basically enough.