Chronicles of 2025

Of course that would mean that. It’s basically shifting that from here to there. The market didn’t suddenly get bigger. It’s the same products for the same customer. Just made there instead of here.

But I hope they’ll just kick the can down the road and postpone until the Orange is out of office.

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I don’t think Switzerland will play games. They promised to invest so they will invest. Good news is that this is not a state backed guarantee and pvt companies need to be on hook , not the state

But yeah - maybe the profits can still stay in CH. For example if Roche US produces a product , they might be able to still shift profits to Roche CH IP fees.

To be fair the companies making pledges most likely don’t have other markets anywhere anyhow. Specially for Pharma. So it’s better to secure market access rather than lose it.

Die another day :slight_smile:

for small countries who depend on exports , it’s better not to have trade enemies. They should continue to expand market access with more treaties.

No one can force private companies to invest.

Apparently we also lowered our tariffs for US meat. So the Bauernverband will lobby against this deal, as billions of Swiss farms will instantly go bankrupt because we’ll all be buying antibiotics-riddled 'Murican beef from now on.

EDIT: tariff-free quotas for beef 500 tons, for bison meat 1000 tons and for poultry 1500 tons. Total meat imports in CH last year were 90’000 tons.

does this deal need public approval?

I’ll be heretical here. USDA Prime dry aged, corn-fed Black Angus beats any European meat for grilling. Sinewy, cartilaginous French beef for braising.

Edit for balance: US pork, chicken, lamb and other meats (WTF turkey) are catastrophic. Truly “the other white meat”.

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I would imagine adjusting the free import quotas needs approval from the parliament. The party with the most farmers is also the party Parmelin, who brokered the deal, belongs to, so it should be at least a bit easier to get approval.

Didn’t say anything about soy? The can’t sell it to China anymore.

This doesnt make much sense to me, as we heard so many times that Trump does XYZ but then didnt.
Then why would market react this time before anything is ‘fixed’ (will it ever?).

But I don’t have an ‘explanation’ for that bump in CHSPI either.

Xi said they’d buy more again in their last agreement.

Haven’t heard from Trump yet. If I recall correctly, we thought we had reached a deal last time too, until we hadn’t. Jamieson Greer’s word isn’t worth much without Trump backing.

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Apparently, it’s been blessed by the White House:

“Additionally, tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors from Switzerland won’t exceed 15%, according to a joint statement. This comes as the Trump administration has been mulling higher tariffs on both sectors.”

Good news for pharma jobs but… semiconductors? Do we produce any? Is Parmelin’s plan to turn us into Taiwan (in which case, good job, M. le Conseiller fédéral!).

Edit: the actual statement:

According to List of semiconductor fabrication plants - Wikipedia Safran and EMMicroeectronic have plants.

Also I think STMicroelectronics has presence but no plants(?).

Probably not the same contribution to GDP as pharma tho :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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This is a very good example of negotiating imaginary things. 200% tariffs on Pharma were never going to be applied because it would raise medicine costs in US. But they sold „not applying them“ as a bargaining chip.

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Switzerland and Liechtenstein intend to cooperate with the United States on matters related to the review of inbound investment, including on the basis of national security

Is that about preventing Chinese investments? There’s also some bits about supply chain that play into the current narrative of banning Huawei from networks.

I dont know if Switzerland should severe ties with China which is obviously a super power now. Even US wants to be friends with them and Trump is happy to pose with Xi in a picture.

There are some power semiconductors and modules produced and assembled in switzerland by Hitachi (ex ABB) plus a number of startups and smaller companies in the sensors, MEMS etc area.

Those are different technologies and capex from TSMC and ASML stuff

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Checking AAII again, I was expecting sentiment to be worse, but will look out for the next update.

Everyone ok?

Group hug? :joy:

Blatantly stolen from Sven Henrich

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The calm before the Christmas rally storm

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Perfectly fine insofar as finances are concerned :wink:

Edit 1: But, fuckin’ seriously?! Extreme fear?! I think our (western) society needs a good war, a plague, aliens, something to get a bit tougher mentally, emotionally.

Edit 2: we even got a plague not too long ago and it exposed our societal and individual weaknesses. What’s next? “Safe spaces” when birds don’t sing in tune?

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