Chronicles of 2025

I think Switzerland is too small and insignificant for him to get pressure to TACO.

Midterms are more realistic to see something done, or the very end of his term (or life if he goes for the 3rd…)

Courts could kill tariffs.

I don’t think new govt will take down tariffs if they stay for rest of current term & there is no significant inflation problem.

By the end of current term , customers in US would have got used to higher price level and govt will be used to revenue coming from tariff.

In addition, the supply chains will be adjusted too in meantime. Any country would be naive and ignorant if their approach is to wait out the current US administration. This would mean their strategy is hope and this would also mean they are not fit for their jobs.

All nations are actively trying to find new trade partners and reduce their reliance on US. Once bitten twice shy

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I would very much expect at an absolute minimum the normalization and lowering of tariffs. I.e a blanket tariff of 10% for everyone.

No way a democrat led government will have a 40% tariff on a western allied country, while tariffing another one just 10%.

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Don’t hold your breath. Voluntarily decreasing tariffs would be basically throwing money out of the window. Not even democrats will do this without a challenge from the other countries.

What could make tariffs move is if the trading partners would unilaterally raise prices (or drop the country, even) in the US. So far I’ve seen that exporters rather forego a part of their profits to stay relevant in the market, which is partly what Trump wanted, so, well played.

I wasn’t reading much about it but..what happened to the sudden stop for post being sent to the US? Is still a thing?

It’s probably only small parcels (which is 80% or more of postal traffic I believe)

looking at chart below, the import prices for Non-fuel imports to US have not dropped at all.

For exporters (from other countries) to forego profits, the import price needs to fall.

Net effective price for importer = import prices + tariffs

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FTFY :smiling_face_with_tear:

Just saw. Not sure „no tariff if you are building in US“ means. Isn’t Roche & Novartis already producing and expanding US manufacturing?

ya, but since they also increased the visa costs to 100 k a year, who will be actually producing ?

Remember, the whole higher education system is reliant on foreigners (some university professors have actually only foreigners as PHDs).

I am pretty sure H1B will have lot of exceptions. It’s basically another way to have one more lever to exert control over companies.

Lord of the rings

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I don’t think H1B holders or applicants work on production lines, they design production lines :wink:

And as @Abs_max said, it’s bound to have exceptions baked in. Or more simply, as we say in Greece, “when the American wants, the American does”, a cousin of mine with a crazily-specific modelling background got plucked from ETH to work in a hedge fund, given O type visa, and fast-tracked to green card within 3 years. nVidia and the rest won’t lack skilled foreign labour, I am willing to bet a kidney on it!

Or to see it from the flipside, there’s great demand to go work in the US in skilled (and unskilled) jobs, that’s their success, and they should be lauded for it and why not capitalize on it?

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For high-end pharma production, it is a bit different. At least a production lead is required to oversee (As well as quality control in labs etc.).

But yes, they will sure find a way to have special exception, to give and take in a certain way. However I can imagine, that it will dampen the will to invest in the US.

I have heard of more and more people going back. No social safety net, exorbitant health care costs/premiums, the general racism encountered…. I might be wrong or it is overstated in some media…. But when a bunch of South Korean nationals get picked up by ICE and deported , this has a truly negative image,

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I agree, overall one will need to make concessions for the US of A :slight_smile:

I’d wish that Europe became more competitive and clever about it, though. I feel that Switzerland, although it’s a more insular society than the UK (which effed up with Brexit), somehow manages to do it better than most other European countries?

more than firing every high profile black person from their job just because they are black?

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forgot about that part, but this is actually more an internal problem and will not be seen in asia (which is actually also pretty racist in that regard btw) or abroad in general.

PS: I am not in any way saying it is not bad, I am just saying that this will not play a role in the perception of the USA for outsiders, except in subsaharian Africa, but afaik this is not a major immigration hub for high skilled workforce.

On the other hand, the whole tech sector in the US is solely dependent on external workforce, since the US education system is crap and highly inegalitarian:
Foreign tech workers are fed up. Can U.S. tech education fill the gap?

BTW, Europe is not standing that badly in this regard (surely could be better by facilitating ), but for instance Meta opened an AI research office in Paris already a while ago FAIR Paris.

Or…. Screw the exemption process (and needing to kiss the ring) and just hire smart people remotely in Central Europe or Asia as subcontractors. They get to keep a US salary, the hosting country gets to receive all their taxes and spend… US companies get the talent they need, US economy loses out :man_tipping_hand:

Don’t be surprised if there is another mandate (public or privately) for tech companies to hire local.

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I think because Switzerland has long term experience of putting national interests first when it comes to foreign policies

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