If you look closely and do your own research, y’all know this time is really different.
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This will be crazy when it reverses. Isn’t the reversal meant to take place in 2026-2027 as the boomers retire and outflows will start outpacing new contributions?
It will be very different when an unrelenting bid becomes an unrelenting ask.
Nah, no outflows, boomers will live on margin. And so will their heirs.
Ponzi FTW.
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If I could trust that I wouldn’t lose my job unless I made a major f-up, and that I’d find a job sending a letter in the classifieds adds within 1-2 days, and I’d get a livable pension in a livable age I wouldn’t invest a dime. Would be like my parents: make 100, spend 99. Not like their friends who made 100 and spent 120.
But since we don’t live in Old Economy Steve’s world…need to take the risk for the hope of a chance to have a decent life before 70.
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US RMDs will force withdrawals.
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Not everything I write deserves an answer 
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Is this still a thing the do-your-own-research hype?
As in “hey I don’t get why I should invest in your shitcoin, I can’t get the value it holds” “bro, I have no time explaining it to you, that’s the new thing, do your own research”
How do you fellow kids like this gem?
(Source)
Not sure exactly what currencies Sven calculated this with (probably DXY).
I ran some numbers in CHF and not surprised arrived at -2.2%.
Season with inflation to taste. 
SPY on Dec 31 2024:
- USD 586.08
- CHF 531.69 (CHF 1 = USD 1.1023)
SPY on Sep 9 2025, about now:
- USD 649.16
- CHF 516.11 (CHF 1 = USD 1.2578)
SPY dividends till the end of July 2025
- USD 3.457
- let’s call it CHF 3, throw in a generous 84 centimes to the first nine September days, total of CHF 4.
(520-531.69)/531.69 = -2.2%
VT must be even worse* …
* Just triggering all the hedging guys to crawl out of their holes
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I wonder what the implications for inflation would be. I see the dilemma facing the ECB. If inflation rises (which is a possibility, not a certainty, although I personally believe the likelihood of sustained inflation above 2%, or even 3%, is greater than 50%), then under its “whatever it takes” approach, the ECB would have limited room to raise rates. Doing so could worsen the situation in France and Italy, potentially even leading to defaults.
I have no idea whether the ECB would dare to buy French bonds to help keep the country solvent while simultaneously raising rates. Such a move would be politically charged and could effectively amount to a mutualisation of bad debt.
Following this line of thought, there is a significant risk of stagflation in the Eurozone.
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A Greek is chuckling in the corner here.
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Well, thankfully we have an absolutely non-political and neutral expert technocrat heading the ECB.
Christine Lagarde weel ste-aire us vell ts’roo ze ruff sea a’ead.
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My first thought was: “Is Anchorman now a stock analyst?”
That makes me feel better about my 8.8% YTD CHF performance. 
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I guess this would cause PE ratios to fall to something more reasonable which would not be a bad thing necessarily. If earnings remain the same but PE ratio falls from ~30 to ~15 then VT would yield around 3.5% dividends per year 
I guess the downside for the real economy is that companies who rely on raising capital by selling stock will have less ability to do so.
Well, it would be good if you are young and early accumulating. It could be a disaster for you if you are retired and were planning on spending that down in retirement.
The Swiss franc sitting in UBS savings outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025 
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2025 isn’t over yet!
See also this poll:
We went from -10% to +10% YTD but still negative in CHF terms.
I’ve been selling to pay the next tranche into Pillar 2…
Ah, this.
… who reassuringly (sort of) said
Asked in the European Parliament whether the ECB could deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument to help Italy, Lagarde wouldn’t name any country but said the scheme was only there to support fiscally prudent countries while others should apply for a bailout.
Then again, that was three years ago, looking at Italy…
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If it’s clear when it reverses, it should be priced in already, no?
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Is that like “if the lottery has negative expectation, nobody will buy a ticket”?
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