Chronicles of 2025

[JEPG]

Nah, no outflows, boomers will live on margin. And so will their heirs.

Ponzi FTW.

[Mirager]

@PhilMongoose

This will be crazy when it reverses. Isn’t the reversal meant to take place in 2026-2027 as the boomers retire and outflows will start outpacing new contributions?

It will be very different when an unrelenting bid becomes an unrelenting ask.

If I could trust that I wouldn’t lose my job unless I made a major f-up, and that I’d find a job sending a letter in the classifieds adds within 1-2 days, and I’d get a livable pension in a livable age I wouldn’t invest a dime. Would be like my parents: make 100, spend 99. Not like their friends who made 100 and spent 120.

But since we don’t live in Old Economy Steve’s world…need to take the risk for the hope of a chance to have a decent life before 70.

[PhilMongoose]

@JEPG

Nah, no outflows, boomers will live on margin.

US RMDs will force withdrawals.

[JEPG]

Not everything I write deserves an answer

[JEPG]

Is this still a thing the do-your-own-research hype?

As in “hey I don’t get why I should invest in your shitcoin, I can’t get the value it holds” “bro, I have no time explaining it to you, that’s the new thing, do your own research”

[Your_Full_Name]

How do you fellow kids like this gem?

(Source)

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Not sure exactly what currencies Sven calculated this with (probably DXY).

I ran some numbers in CHF and not surprised arrived at -2.2%.
Season with inflation to taste.

SPY on Dec 31 2024:

• USD 586.08
• CHF 531.69 (CHF 1 = USD 1.1023)

SPY on Sep 9 2025, about now:

• USD 649.16
• CHF 516.11 (CHF 1 = USD 1.2578)

SPY dividends till the end of July 2025

• USD 3.457
• let’s call it CHF 3, throw in a generous 84 centimes to the first nine September days, total of CHF 4.

(520-531.69)/531.69 = -2.2%

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VT must be even worse* …

* Just triggering all the hedging guys to crawl out of their holes

[afstand]

@Your_Full_Name

Thankfully, Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” will serve as a backstop.

I wonder what the implications for inflation would be. I see the dilemma facing the ECB. If inflation rises (which is a possibility, not a certainty, although I personally believe the likelihood of sustained inflation above 2%, or even 3%, is greater than 50%), then under its “whatever it takes” approach, the ECB would have limited room to raise rates. Doing so could worsen the situation in France and Italy, potentially even leading to defaults.

I have no idea whether the ECB would dare to buy French bonds to help keep the country solvent while simultaneously raising rates. Such a move would be politically charged and could effectively amount to a mutualisation of bad debt.

Following this line of thought, there is a significant risk of stagflation in the Eurozone.

[Mirager]

@afstand

I have no idea whether the ECB would dare to buy French bonds to help keep the country solvent while simultaneously raising rates. Such a move would be politically charged and could effectively amount to a mutualisation of bad debt.

A Greek is chuckling in the corner here.

[Your_Full_Name]

@afstand

I see the dilemma facing the ECB

Well, thankfully we have an absolutely non-political and neutral expert technocrat heading the ECB.

Christine Lagarde weel ste-aire us vell ts’roo ze ruff sea a’ead.

[PhilMongoose]

@Your_Full_Name

How do you fellow kids like this gem?

My first thought was: “Is Anchorman now a stock analyst?”

@Your_Full_Name

I ran some numbers in CHF and not surprised arrived at -2.2%.
Season with inflation to taste.

That makes me feel better about my 8.8% YTD CHF performance.

[Quack]

I guess this would cause PE ratios to fall to something more reasonable which would not be a bad thing necessarily. If earnings remain the same but PE ratio falls from ~30 to ~15 then VT would yield around 3.5% dividends per year

I guess the downside for the real economy is that companies who rely on raising capital by selling stock will have less ability to do so.

[PhilMongoose]

@Quack

I guess this would cause PE ratios to fall to something more reasonable which would not be a bad thing necessarily.

Well, it would be good if you are young and early accumulating. It could be a disaster for you if you are retired and were planning on spending that down in retirement.

[Abs_max]

The Swiss franc sitting in UBS savings outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025

[PhilMongoose]

2025 isn’t over yet!

See also this poll:

Stick or twist?

If you could go back in time to the start of this year and transfer part of your stock holdings to pillar 2, would you do it? poll Now, if you could go back to the beginning of the year and transfer some US stock allocation to non-US allocation, would you do it? poll

We went from -10% to +10% YTD but still negative in CHF terms.

I’ve been selling to pay the next tranche into Pillar 2…

[JEPG]

@Stick or twist?

If you could go back in time

Ah, this.

[EPeon]

@Your_Full_Name

Well, thankfully we have an absolutely non-political and neutral expert technocrat heading the ECB.

… who reassuringly (sort of) said

Asked in the European Parliament whether the ECB could deploy its Transmission Protection Instrument to help Italy, Lagarde wouldn’t name any country but said the scheme was only there to support fiscally prudent countries while others should apply for a bailout.

Then again, that was three years ago, looking at Italy…

[assemblyrequired]

If it’s clear when it reverses, it should be priced in already, no?

[PhilMongoose]

Is that like “if the lottery has negative expectation, nobody will buy a ticket”?

[JEPG]

And then, we’re back to the futures
Time travel is the best strategy indeed. I’ll start chronicle of 2026 with time going backward.

Also, I’ll see myself out immediately.

[Helix]

I mean, I finally went ahead and bought futures for leverage. I posted that question about the strange roll prices on three different forums by now. Nobody seems to have an answer about what we see on that picture. I might try to ask IBKR? Their answers can be as hit and miss as ChatGPT, though. – Which I also asked and had a different explanation every time…