Stick or twist?

1

If you could go back in time to the start of this year and transfer part of your stock holdings to pillar 2, would you do it?

  • Yes. I’ll take a guaranteed 2% over the 10% drop
  • No. Stay the course!
0 voters

Now, if you could go back to the beginning of the year and transfer some US stock allocation to non-US allocation, would you do it?

  • Yes. Transfer some US to non-US
  • No. Stay the course!
0 voters
2

Just to put things into perspective


VT is up just over 7% within 12 months. Isnt that just perfectly matching theory?

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3

For me -: I don’t compare these two things. I see pillar 2 as part of bond allocation in my portfolio.

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4

Interesting, not many would allocate to pillar 2, but a few would allocate from US to non-US.

5

Yeah I can imagine. Maybe I am not the traditional FI investor and hence don’t find it comfortable to be all in Equities

60% is max for me when it comes to equities. So rest needs to be 2nd pillar, MMF, cash, RE funds etc.

6

Yeah, wouldn’t everyone with the current knowledge, if they ‘could go back to the start of the year’.

Then they could readjust to more US allocation again today (and skipping the 10% US drop).

Hypothetical, and in hindsight of course, but that’s how the question is phrased.

2nd pillar is different, as you could not easily take it out and put back into US again.

PS: I didn’t shift anything as I’m not a fortune teller.

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7

Incidentally, I lowered my exposure to US equities at the beginning of the year from 60% to 45%, but I was thinking about lowering that for quite a while and beginning of 2025 just seemed the right moment given the high valuations.

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8

I don’t understand this sentiment of remorse your poll gives, which seem to be shared by quite many in FIRE/investing discussions these days.

  • This is nothing. I mean literally. VT isn’t only up LTM but also (just so) YTD. What are you guys doing when a -25% crisis hits?
  • This was quite obvious and to be expected. Seldom was turmoil so clearly on the horizon in the last ten years (I even remarked on it in my Jan 1st post).

My general advice is always this: If this little headwind bothers you, you need to revisit your risk tolerance and likely reduce your equity exposure.

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9

So. Any of you want to change your vote? :wink:

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