Kuppy is in good company, though …
“Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI?” Altman said during a lengthy interview with The Verge and other reporters last night. “My opinion is yes.”
— Sam Altman, about 10 days ago or so.
I like this quote even better[$] (from the same interview):
“You should expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on data center construction in the not very distant future.”
— Sam Altman
Gemini, what’s the world’s GDP?
Projections for 2025 suggest the world GDP will grow to approximately $114.6 to $115.5 trillion (USD).
The top economies are expected to be:
- United States: ~$30.5 trillion
- China: ~$19.2 trillion
…
$ Narrator: “Goofy checks his sector allocation to Industrials and screens for some value within Industrials among his positions and candidates on his buy list.”
Off topic.[OT]
I love these!
And yes, about removing that headphone jack …
Occasionally I come across the ones where they dub the speech by Hitler in Der Untergang (“Downfall”) where Bruno Ganz, the actor, delivers a brilliant performance of Hitler in the bunker hearing bad news.
I cannot watch these without turning off the sound, which seems like half the fun. Being a native (Swiss German) speaker, I just cannot concentrate on the subtitles alone and always hear the actual spoken dialogue. Which of course has nothing to do with the actual dialogue in the dubbed scene.
I wonder how native Spanish speakers (or fluent ones like @cubanpete_the_swiss) enjoy the Spanish comedian with subtitles).
OT Well, is there an Off Topic for this topic of the Chronicles of 2025?
Here is the post
So Trump is trying to fire a Fed Governor for bullshit reasons.
Is the US going Turkey? We have to admit all this is quite unprecedented and the independence of these check and balances seems at risk.
I have just one question for the smarter people than me: if the USD dollar goes hard into inflation (rates are cut by a Trump-near Fed), maybe hyperinflation Turkish Lira style, would an CHF-hedged ETF actually protect you?
I just wonder if instead of keepind an unhedged US ETF, maybe a “minimal move” in this possible environment is to simply buy a CHF hedged USD based ETF temporarily. But I don’t know if that would even help, hence my question.
Who knows? You would see all the wild swings, a bit as if you were a US investor. You can only expect to participate in the unforeseen outcome. The expectation should be around zero return.
I think, it can make sense to hedge a basket of currencies. The only point of that is to flatten out strange moves of your own currency (and has nothing to do with the stocks exposure that it is often packaged together with). Participating in the strange moves of other currencies is an unwelcome byproduct.
If you are a good FX trader, there are shops hiring.
that is very enlightening, expressed like that.
I simply bought a bunch of CHF dividend payers using USD margin.
yes I guess if I’m really convinced that there will be strong USD devaluation vs CHF, then I should take as much US debt as possible as soon as possible, and buy CHF-correlated assets
what would these be? I’m still debating what strategy to allocate my next 3a chunk into…
Is that what Michelle Obama meant in that one speech a few years back: “if they go low” (on interest rates), we go high (on margin)”?
IBKR to join the SP500 
Yes, but so will be the loyalist that follows.
A Trumpian loyalist will do whatever is asked, be dovish if demanded to be dovish, hawkish if hawkish, performing tricks on command, like a trained seal. Maybe that’s even a perfect candidate for the next chair.
The other good thing is that this further pushes former boundaries of executive power, degrading the separation of power. After trailblazing this maybe other, harder targets can be removed too.
Lastly, this is one of many avenues pursued to get the sewage pumps working on flooding the zone again. The whole Epstein pedo connection has been clogging them up real good.
well a trump loyalist said she sought mortgages on two homes, both listed for primary residence. First of all there is no actual proof she did either, and she has not been investigated or convicted, but Trump is already firing her on allegations by one of his loyalist.
And even if what she did was true, it is absolutely harmless (bagatelle). Not in any western country somebody would be fired over this. Ever. And again you should wait until she is investigated and eventually fined.
Now compare these reasons with all the things Trump and his entourage of republicans did. Have you taken a look at Trump penal history? How is a triviality like that one worth being fired over, compared to what Trump did in the past? If he has such high standard, he should fire himself first.
Yes it can happen that US becomes Argentina right in front of our eyes. But if it happens most people will keep assuming it won’t happen until it’s too late.
What will actually happen ? No one knows.
I think rather than hedging currency , it might be better to reduce US stock exposure if you are worried about banana republic situation.
To move the discussion back in the direction of investing: What impact would that have on the market? I would expect the market to react at some point and am always surprised that it doesn’t (at least not as much as I would expect).
I think if it were to happen, equity risk premiums in US will go up which would drive the PE ratios.
Same one we’ve been seeing all year.
Assets up, currency down → barely breaking even in CHF, if not down a good bit.
Just to show that my money is where my mouth is: 95% of my stocks are U.S. companies. And oh boy, they make tons of money for me.
It is by far the biggest power in the world. For centuries it helped to build our modern society with rules for protecting possessions and economic growth. Even the enemy Germany was treated quite fair economically: German stockholders of U.S. stocks got their dividends paid out after world war II.
One single president cannot annihilate all this.
The lack of intelligence may lead to some economic problems. But the power (military, currency, consumers, geography and so on) outweighs those problems which probably are only temporary.
