It’s been said since forever. The real question is “is Elon saying it going to get it to stick this time?”
1 Like
Wait… the explosion appears to go exponential:
“The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Elon Musk calls for Trump’s impeachment and declares vital SpaceX program will be decommissioned
2 Likes
I feel extremely weird siding with Musk.
What a timeline we live in…
4 Likes
Another Buy The Dip(shit) opportunity incoming…
3 Likes
Went to sell my TQQQ to lock in a tidy 20% profit in a month but sadly market is closed 
It’s hard to tell who’s worse. Trump is objectively worse based on actions, Musk is far more inhuman…the kind of guy who could wake up and say “people with red hair are bad for the…people’s state, let’s sterilize them all”, and then be unhinged enough to do it if he could.
1 Like
I doubt so.
It’s a Tesla specific story.
If anything Trump will be distracted and might become a bit less active on tariff front
Depends of the market is pragmatic to see it like that or get into a short but sharp panic that there’s trouble and chaos at the top, which is also the case 
Is this only a timeline? In that case I need a frigging suitcase and find Five
3 Likes
Well why to panic? Trump and Elon are fighting
Trump is fighting with everyone 
Because a side trade play is fun
What a pair of teenagers 
Fun to witness, but the only problem is they can actually harm others with their shitposting.
This news is a bit confusing for me. Stock price of UBS jumped on this news. While to me it sounds like they do not like this news themselves. The news sounds negative as UBS need to put money in capital which they could have otherwise used for lending.
Anyone has an explanation?
1 Like
Market prices in a chance of success for the challenge. Less capital requirement for UBS = more profit opportunity, due to higher leverage.
2 Likes
I don’t get it. the actual news of capital requirement actually moved the price. UBS rebuttal is not really the main reason.
the main news is
I would assume that a (for UBS) worse regulation had already been priced in, but in the end it turned out that the regulation was not as bad as expected.
7 Likes
I read somewhere (can’t remember the newspaper link) that the law will made by 2027 and UBS have fulfil the requirements by 2033. At the current revenue / profits of UBS, they will be able to whatever dividend / buyback they are currently doing and keep adding to reserves to be compliant by 2033. Plus they have all these years to further negotiate the requirements down.
1 Like
We had the UBS problem in 2008, then the Credit Suisse problem in 2023. Honestly, I assume that in the next ~30 years we’ll have to bail out UBS again. The current regulators and top managers won’t be greatly affected by it anymore, but in the long run, it will be the young people who will have to bear the consequences if another bank fails. If UBS fails, nobody will dare to wind down the bank next time either. Yes, I’m rather a pessimist.
I looked a bit at how the US could consider countries discriminating, seems like Digital Services Taxes are among their key gripes (as it’s being discussed above). ChatGPT says that very likely “target” countries would be Canada, UK, Germany, Australia, but from reading news etc it’s obvious that eg Norway is worried, holding about 650bn in US equities, as are other countries who could be on the crosshair like France, Italy, Spain.
ChatGPT thinks that Switzerland is quite unlikely to be targeted, so three points and a question:
- capital flight from the US could drop US stocks
- that’d be a buying opportunity for Swiss-based investors if
- dividends outgoing towards Switzerland aren’t progressively taxed an additional 20%, however
- can this be managed effectively, ie dividends outgoing to Germany/Australia being taxed 35% after 5 years from now:
- 20% from January 1, 2026
- 25% from January 1, 2027
- 30% from January 1, 2028
- 35% from January 1, 2029
- but dividends outgoing to Switzerland remaining taxed 15% as per the treaty?
I’d imagine this is not hard to do at the broker level, but don’t know.
I think you are looking at it very tactically
The main issue is not the tax but the rationale for tax . If US can apply whatever tax because they don’t like your country of residence, then this is a problem. Investors don’t like investing in China because of same reason because there is uncertainty of the laws.
It would have been great if US would have said that they are going to apply extra tax to foreigners and will be applied uniformly to everyone. This would be better because atleast its not arbitrary. Now they introduced an element of revenge which is not good for investors.
I don’t think money will flow all of the sudden out of USA. But it would for sure make the market less attractive for an international investor. People invest in US ETFs because it’s easy and the rule of law is applied. But the second part of this statement is changing if the new draft becomes the law.
Regarding CH, yes it might be spared for now. But Switzerland is on watchlist for currency manipulation and unfair practices anyways. So who is to say US treasury wouldn’t classify Switzerland as “not good”
5 Likes
By the way, when we invest in IE ETFs, then dividends from US companies don’t go to Swiss residents, dividends go to Irish entity.
So unless you have US ETFs, the main country to watch out is Ireland. If they fall on this “bad list”, then ETFs domiciled in IE will suffer
But I don’t know if VWRL & WEBG will suffer the same or not. Because maybe VWRL will fall under “America first and hence saved”
1 Like