Chronicles of 2025

But it doesnt necessarily need to be a person. It surely can also be an entity. E.g. in the example of Harvard the ‘cancelling’ part is more the negative sentiment that is promoted rather than the active withdrawal of money by the gov.

Other example of cancelling (and to pull the post back to finance topic :laughing:) is Tesla, which also got/gets quite a bit of cancelling currently.

Any ideas on the impact of the Big Bewtiful Tax Act to investing by the macro brains here?

My basic summary is following should be expected

  • increased purchasing power for consumers
  • Corporations should have slightly better tax rates and hence better earnings

However the above comes at a cost of higher national debt & tariffs which cause higher bond yields and also higher costs of borrowing for individuals and corporations.

The impact of higher spending power coupled with higher interest and higher costs (tariffs) is very complex to estimate. Seems like a narrow path to avoid recession might be available

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Great

And LVMH boss was complaining about Macron being too interfering :wink:

I would wait for him to make a comment about this latest Truth social

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And it begins

Separately, the president said the trade discussions with the EU “are going nowhere” and so he’s “recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025.”

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Time to buy :slight_smile:

Third time’s the charm! Guess the puts Trump buddies have sold must pay off soon enough.

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Right, all the European indices are down to almost two week lows. Truly a generational buying opportunity.

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My buy threshold is breached, so generational or not, still a good time. All too possible that some fuckwitted tweet will bring the market up on Monday anyway.

Gold spiking, not a bad idea to rebalance some either :slight_smile:

Actually, yesterday I sold. Sold an e-mini Russell 2000 Future.

My Gold and Uranium positions are one of the few things that are up in recent days.

I guess I might buy into Platinum, Palladium or even Silver instead.

I almost made it back to break-even before this last dip.

Same, was off by 1-2%, not more.

Hmm. It looks like even Platinum and Palladium spiked up in the last week.

What is it?
I don’t see even -5% from last ATHs (in USD at least).

I think it’s a great idea! That way, Trump citizens can buy “Made in USA” at full price. I can’t wait to see how many Americans will be willing (but more importantly, able) to spend $6,000 to $10,000 on their iPhone! The best thing would also be to see how many Americans are qualified and interested in working in the factory to manufacture iPhones.

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Every -10% in CHF terms from all-time all-time high. I mean it’s not a big deal.

Anyway I am working so maybe it’s already gone :stuck_out_tongue:

Same same.

My iPhone SE bought in 2020 just doubled its residual value this morning.

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Trump tweeting already?

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Still no Tweet.

Bruce Wayne Scott Bessent is ready, however.

(Source)

For once I would like to be able to profit from these blatant market manipulations unpredictable tariff deal developments.

Sure, that part was fascetious.

still a good time. All too possible that some fuckwitted tweet will bring the market up on Monday anyway.

My main point was that the market is where it was about two weeks ago. It is substantially above where it was a month ago (as an arbitrary example, VT in CHF today is at 100.8 while on April 21st it was at 89.6).

If the model is that you’ve saved up a bunch of capital and have been waiting for the prices to reach specific buy thresholds, those thresholds must already have been crossed in April. Having them trigger again just because there was a recovery back up to slightly above the threshold for a couple of weeks doesn’t seem sound.

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