Trimmed URNM and WAF. Bought FMC.
One of the GOATs of stock picking gave an interview on one of my favorite podcasts:
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My absolute idol. Many of my rules are based on his books and I hope by the time I do my top performing strategy 20 years I reach his 29% CAGR; I’m at 27.57% after 5 years and 9 months, but I don’t have to adhere similar rules a fund manager has to.
I love what he says in the interview. I often use the phrase “you have to pick up a lot of stones to find a diamond, but there are diamonds”. He says “the person that picks up the most stones in the stock market wins”.
After quiet a long bull run many younger investors do not understand that they can lose 50% or more any time. And that they will almost surely lose a lot if they invest for longer periods of time, decades. He says the average stocks moves 100% per year. You can not only lose money but you will surely lose money. Once you got this into your mind you can work out how to not fall to all those errors investors commit in that situation. Lynch says the most money in the stock market is lost by preparing (trying to avoid) that situation. Once you understand that you cannot you are better off.
Thanks for sharing that!
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Good one, I need to get his book, meaning to for a while but it’s my wife who’s the modern art (and consumer goods) expert in our house.
(wonder who’ll get this bad joke).
I had to look it up to see if he was actually still alive.
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If it’s a “buy stocks of companies you personally like” joke maybe ask your wife for a fun paper trading account for you at her brokerage? If I misunderstood, please accept my apologies.
Actually, I apologize any which way.
Anyway, Sir Young Padawan, Mr Lynch published not just one book.
Not sure I understand what you are trying to say.
Since this is a FIRE forum: Peter Lynch FIREd at 46. As he recounts (also in the referenced interview) his dad died at 46. Peter thought this was a good age to retire at and spend more time with his family.
This is a guy who did great, knew when enough was enough and was actually able to pull the cord.
Hope many people on this forum will be able to do the same (even as I have not seen lots of evidence of it yet).
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After seeing what >27% CAGR does in 5+ years, wow 29% over 20 years is a real stack of cash. I suppose he invested in his own fund…
I meant that he’s such a GOAT/Legend and was around such a long time ago, in my mind, I always assumed he’d passed on already, so I was surprised to see him doing an interview.
EDIT: also great quote “America creates. China duplicates. Europe legislates.”
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Support.
By that age I would likewise plan to - at the very least - reduce my pensum % significantly (for the same reasons - spending more time with loved ones).
But first I hope I’m still alive then. 
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Aware, it’s the “One up on Wall st” I am looking at. And…my bad joke…but I can’t unsee it for years now, now it’ll infect you too 
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I do respect that he quit to spend time with family when he could have made much more, even if it probably wasn’t much of a financial sacrifice for him.
Isn’t there some statistic that retiring increases the chance of you dying? Esp. the first few years right after retirement?
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Hey stockpickers
I do read this thread and usually like your picks or the reasoning behind it. I need your help.
Let’s asume I’ll have some spare cash CHF (from an undsiclosed investment) and I’d like to pick 3-5 Swiss stocks to keep for ca. 15-20yrs. It should be solid and pay some dividends. It doesn’t need to grow 3x a year. Every few years I’d like to add to them.
My short list rn: KNIN, NESN, UHRN, UBSN, SIGN.
What are your top 5 picks and with which weight would you go in (the next several weeks)? Any good killer reason against my short list? Thanks.
Hi Stojano,
I had asked a similar question (not sure if it was in the same chapter or maybe in the dedicated thread) and @anon17469660 provided an awesome response with Fastgraphs. Far may it from me to recommend you stocks. However, I have only NESN from your list and added some NOVN, ROG, HOLN and ZÜRN to the mix.
I do not like KNIN because it’s very cyclical, UHRN seems to me that the best days are over, UBSN would not touch it because of personal distaste, some of the insurance companies like SREN or SLHN maybe.
however, I assume you want that side of the portfolio to balance out your crypto to I guess all of the Swiss companies are not in the tech/crypto/AI space so should be a good diversification.
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SLICHA or CHDVD.
Problem solved.
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Thanks. My long list is mostly based on discussions here (and some digging through internet and talking with friends). UHRN because my kids still love the Swatches. KNIN because I lived not far away from the headquarter and every morning I passed by train I dreamed about being an Onassis. (You know now why I need more sophisticated opinions from you guys).
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I’d like to avoid ETFs. I think it’s similar to thinking “not your keys, not your coins”.
(btw SLICHA is not on Saxo… I suppose it’s under symbol UBSLI, the price is the same).
Mate, other than UBS these look catastrophic by the 5 year charts, why these?
When Goofy FASTgraphed the top 10 (or so, only has 20) positions of CHDVD, the top 5 are 70% of the weight of the ETF, and IIRC maybe 4 of them had good growth prospects according to the tool. I decided “good enough for me” and put some money there, which I’ll continue to do, maybe adding UBS too.
Edit: there’s the post: FIRE at 50 - Optimizing liquidity, risks and taxes - #14 by Your_Full_Name , you could possibly look there and make a selection yourself without using an ETF.
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Probably I’m used to BTFD. And I ask: will it be still there 20yrs from now. If probably yes than why not. Do I think wrong here?
Thanks, I was there on the post and read though Goofy’s comments. Maybe you are right to pick from the ETF. I choose SIGN for not having only “big” ones.
Not knowledgeable enough to answer on the “will it be still there 20yrs from now”. Some companies seem to have some magic sauce that allows them to continue plugging and raising dividends and earnings in all situations, including pharma companies with all the complexities of drug development and marketing. I say this because the cyclicality or consistence of earnings growth (“price will follow earnings” is a mantra) seems to be sticky: some companies maintain one or the other.
Regarding buying TFD, you’re essentially saying buying undervalued companies, ie trading below several metrics that suggest the stock price should be higher but isn’t for reasons. I believe BTFD is harder to do “right” on securities, but it does need conviction, just like it does for BTC, that you’re buying something worthwhile which will persist in X years from now. So circled back to not being knowledgeable enough
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