Any Stockpickers out there?

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I know, and I am even a subscriber.

And I occasionally use it for The Market articles, too.

I feel us openly discussing this loophole here will lead to it being closed soon(er). :frowning:

I just found this company Sachem Corp. that is -62% this year, they have been missing the revenues but it doesn’'t look like a bad company… maybe undervaluated right now. What do you think?

TL;DR: I would pass.

Tiny (USD 72M market cap) mortgage REIT, yielding close to 13%, about 50% debt.

Historical graph:

Forcasting estimates:

Even though I like dividends, this one wouldn’t be for me.

They expect negative earnings this year and the two analysts covering the company expect tiny earnings next year that they’ve been lowering from 39 cents six months ago to 35 cents three months ago to 9 cents in the previous estimate to 6 cents now.

With no earnings the company will likely have to cut their dividend.

According to their latest 10-Q they’re a bit concentrated in risk exposure, both geographically (over half in New England) as well as in the distribution of borrowers (e.g. the company has one borrower of $54M representing 11.3% of the outstanding mortgage loan portfolio – if that borrower has an issue, the stock price will likely take a massive hit).

Their debt and maturity schedule won’t leave a lot of flexibility with cash flows, as they’ll have to pay down about $34M till the end of 2024 (with negative earnings …) and $56M next year (with tiny earnings expected). And a bunch more debt is maturing in 2026 and 2027.
Given the still relatively high interest rate environment, I don’t think they’ll be able to re-finance the soon maturing debt at lower rates.

At September 30, 2024, the Company had an aggregate of $260.5 million of unsecured, unsubordinated notes payable outstanding, net of $4.3 million of deferred financing costs (collectively, the “Notes”). During the nine months ended September 30, 2024, the company redeemed its 7.125% unsecured, unsubordinated Notes due June 30, 2024 in the aggregate principal amount of $23.7 million plus the accrued interest thereon. At September 30, 2024, the Company had six series of Notes outstanding:

(i) Notes having an aggregate principal amount of $34.5 million bearing interest at 6.875% per annum and maturing December 30, 2024 (the “December 2024 Notes”);

(ii) Notes having an aggregate principal amount of $56.4 million bearing interest at 7.75% per annum and maturing September 30, 2025 (the “September 2025 Notes”);

(iii) Notes having an aggregate principal amount of $51.8 million bearing interest at 6.0% per annum and maturing December 30, 2026 (the “December 2026 Notes”);

(iv) Notes having an aggregate principal amount of $51.9 million bearing interest at 6.0% per annum and maturing March 30, 2027 (the “March 2027 Notes”);

(v) Notes having an aggregate principal amount of $30.0 million bearing interest at 7.125% per annum and maturing June 30, 2027 (the “June 2027 Notes”); and

(vi) Notes having an aggregate principal amount of $40.3 million bearing interest at 8.00% per annum and maturing September 30, 2027 (the “September 2027 Notes”).

Things I also came across in the 10-Q (highlighting mine):

In December 2021, the Company hired the daughter of the Company’s chief executive officer to perform certain credit and compliance services. For the three-month periods ended September 30, 2024 and 2023, she received compensation of $0.04 million for each period. For the nine-month periods ended September 30, 2024 and 2023, she received compensation of $0.1 million for each period.

IMO, if you’re a public company, just don’t hire the CEOs daughter to do stuff for the company …

Looking at their latest investor presentation from November 14, it doesn’t look like a bad company, just one that I personally wouldn’t pick over other options out there – as one of my mentors likes to say: there’s many other potential brides out there and you don’t have drink yourself into finding this one to be the most beautiful one. :wink:

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