Any Stockpickers out there?

According to Bloomberg, this is what analysts think:

That’s great, but it seems this still won’t generate any positive earnings at least in the next couple of years.

According to Bloomberg, Jean-Paul & Martine Clozel own >25%, UBS “owns” about 5%, Vanguard a little over 2%.

Those UBS, Vanguard, etc “ownerships” are UBS, Vanguard, etc issued funds (likely benchmarked to some index that includes Idorsia), so it’s not “smart institutions/professionals” picking Idorsia, but rather non-discriminating buyers of funds offered by UBS, Vanguard, etc. who basically want to buy some index that happens to include Idorsia.

I personally would not know how to arrive at this conclusion without understanding a lot more about this biotech company.

YMMV, of course.

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Maybe it’s just wishful thinking. Thanks for your comments!

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Just let us know when you sell – we tend to look at such events as a buy signal on this channel … :wink:

More seriously: good luck with your inherited stock picked portfolio!

I for one would have a hard time dealing with it and cleaning … or well, messing up trying to streamline it.

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NVDA beats and guide exceeds expectations - stock falls anyway.

Eh we’ve seen this film 5 times already haven’t we? Earnings come out strong again and again and again, there’s a drop for 1-3 days and then bull again. We’re fine :slight_smile:

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This should shed some light :wink:

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Endowment bias I feel, young padawan. By the past confused you are. Forget about the past, not here anymore it is. It is only now and future that counts.

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Interesting read, thanks! So in my shoes you would sell and cut your losses?

Which losses? You inherited it :laughing:.

See what I mean?

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Well yes but since the day I got them in my portfolio, the price didn’t stop to decrease. But anyway we are talking quite a small amount to begin with :rofl:

While I do not have Idorsa in my portfolio, I’m in the Biotech/Pharma business myself. Idorsa is ok, but as with every mid-size Biotech player it burns a lot of money. If you have established a blockbuster or have at least an exciting story for the future this is not a problem.
For Biotech companies there are only 3 scenarios, you are not successful and then you run out of money at some stage (true for most of the small to mid size companies), you are successful and you get acquired (somewhen, this stage can be long and maybe over more than one product cycle) or you get big enough (happened to Vertex, Biogen, Amgen, but very rare).

For investors it’s a risky game you have to find that one company that has a great product (in the pipeline) which passes all the clinical stages and attracts a good market to be acquired by big (er) Pharma. It’s not without reason that Biotech is a play ground for venture capital, if you invest in 100 companies and 2 of them pay off that should give you great returns.

For Idorsa my personal view is that they are to big and hence to expensive for a not very interesting pipeline. It’s a bet

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For me the story of Idorsa is an example that shows that people that have successfully sold their first startup wouldn’t be necessarily successful with their second startup.

Well, I hope this couple Clozel are already financially independent and are in their second round for fun, for the pleasure of discovery, for the memories of good old days when they were young… and not for money.

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BTW, somewhat recent NZZ article on Idorsia: Biotechfirma Idorsia: Dem Ärztepaar Clozel läuft die Zeit davon

(paywalled – if someone is interested in the content, DM me)

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Well, I think the Clozel couple will be fine, they got a good payday from J&J. However, this shows again that Biotech is not that simple. You can have great scientist, great science, a great and active product but even after so many decades of research we still barely understand our body and the related diseases and the interactions with medical products. I’m currently in such a situation where we have an antibody that in theory seems to be a star but at the end it comes down to the clinical data. There where many stars before that did not make it to market.

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Clozel Couple Fights for Their Lifework at Idorsia - Time is Running Out

Martine and Jean-Paul Clozel achieved great success with the Swiss biotech company Actelion. Their second “baby,” Idorsia, is however in financial trouble. Even the approval of a new drug for high blood pressure is unlikely to change this.

Jean-Paul Clozel serves as CEO, his wife Martine as Research Director. Whether the company Idorsia will win its battle for survival remains to be seen.

The Basel-based company Idorsia does not lack ambition. Already at its founding seven years ago, it declared its intention to become a leading biotechnology company. And it has mentioned this aspiration in the closing credits of every press release ever since.

However, the company, which was once well-funded and is still led by the well-known medical couple Martine and Jean-Paul Clozel, has fallen on hard times. Due to a lack of money, the company was forced to make drastic cuts in the second half of last year. At its headquarters in Allschwil, 475 jobs were cut at once. Nearly 300 employees were laid off, primarily in research and development and related support functions. Around 800 people are still employed at Idorsia.

At the same time, the company withdrew its long-standing promise to break even by 2025. When it last reported on its business on October 24, 2023, it forecast an operating loss of around 670 million Swiss francs for the full year.

The couple Clozel was already behind Idorsia’s predecessor company, Actelion. This company, which was also headquartered in the Basel suburb of Allschwil, is still considered the greatest success story in the European biotech sector. Its core business at the time was acquired by the US healthcare group Johnson & Johnson (J&J) for $30 billion in 2017 - the non-acquired parts, primarily research projects, were transferred to the newly founded company Idorsia.

The fact that their second “baby” did not develop better has hit the couple hard. But on Wednesday, the couple could finally report a success once again. The US health authority granted approval for the active ingredient aprocitentan for the treatment of high blood pressure.

In a press release, Martine Clozel, who heads Idorsia’s research department as Chief Scientific Officer, is quoted as saying that the approval is “great news” for prescribing physicians and patients. Her husband, who heads the management board, says he is “very proud” of the workforce.

At the end of September 2023, the company still had cash and cash equivalents of 255 million Swiss francs. Financial analysts had already pointed out at the time that without raising fresh capital, the company would run out of money by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

As announced on Monday, the company has since received $350 million. This money comes from an agreement with the American pharmaceutical company Viatris, which has in-licensed two product candidates from Idorsia. The two active ingredients (selatogrel and cenerimod) still need to be tested for their efficacy in the final phase III of clinical development in a large group of patients. If they pass the hurdle of market approval, Idorsia is entitled to a royalty that is in the mid-single to low-double-digit percentage range.

A market launch is not expected until at least three or four years from now. Idorsia is also obliged to contribute up to $200 million to research costs over the next three years. Upon request, the company justifies this by saying that it is a partnership and that the costs are shared. However, this also means that the further development of these two drugs will continue to burden Idorsia substantially.

Even the newly approved active ingredient aprocitentan, which is now to be marketed under the brand name Tryvio, is likely to continue to drain the company’s liquidity for the time being. The market launch still needs to be prepared, and from today’s perspective, Idorsia does not seem to be very far along with this… [rest of article skipped]

Summary of the article:

  • Idorsia, a Swiss biotech company founded by the Clozel couple, is facing financial difficulties.
  • Despite the approval of a new drug for high blood pressure, the company’s future is uncertain.
  • The company has made significant cuts and is relying on partnerships to stay afloat.
  • The Clozels’ previous venture, Actelion, was a huge success, but Idorsia has struggled to replicate that success.
  • Analysts are concerned about Idorsia’s ability to sustain its operations and bring its products to market.
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Very useful hindsights, thanks to all!

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My portfolio managed to reach new all time highs the last few days. Not sure why exactly since there’s not a single stock that went big, I guess it is mainly on the back of USD strength and overall small increases across the board.

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Man, you’re jinxing it …

Don’t you know the market gods read this as we write?

You can only think these things and even then you need to keep a poker face or at least wear dark sunglasses if you can’t hide your smile. :sunglasses:

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It’s weekend so it’s safe… for a day at least - Monday will be bloodbath now. :cry:

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The USD strength was me jinxing it. In the last 3 months of the year, I sell USD for CHF and withdraw it to fund Pillar 2 payments. Already lost 5 figure amounts through FX as USD strengthened after I converted…

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