Not too different from this -
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Fwiw it sounds like it was a data/config update, not a binary change.
Given that apparently the data was full of null bytes it could also have been some issue in data push pipeline or similar.
Doesn’t excuse the lack of canary and telemetry to detect issue/stop the push…
My gut feel for a while is that this represents the western world as a whole at the moment.
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Some more details here: Technical Details: Falcon Update for Windows Hosts | CrowdStrike
hi @Your_Full_Name thank you for all those updates.
I would be curious if you had the Fast graph of Nestlé, now that it reported earnings and tanked; is it a buy?
Thank you!
Sure thing!
Nestle.
Looks interesting given their “normal” valuation (blue line, historic multiple the market has given them).
Given their expected growth of about 6-7% going forward I’d prefer to pick them up at an even lower multiple – fair multiple would be 15 given their growth, which would mean not even a 2% return until the end of 2026:
If they managed to return to their almost 23x P/E “normal” multiple, you could expect real nice returns of close to 20% annualized:
I won’t hand out any personal recommendations on whether this company is a buy, but it certainly doesn’t look terrible for a long term investor.
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And now for a lesson in patience - after several years holding MMM, last week, I got impatient and sold it. Today it went up by 23% - and this isn’t with their legal issues being resolved, which could really unlock value!
I should maybe lock away long term investments into a separate account where I don’t see and tinker with it.
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Just wanted to share this video
The foresight of Berkshire. This was from their AGM. They don’t like to underwrite cybersecurity
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Oh yeah, I’d seen that too when it came out. Berkshire doesn’t screw around for a quick buck. I love how Buffett and his colleagues always say things SIMPLY and CLEARLY, a rare virtue nowadays.
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Er … any other companies that you’re planning to sell soon?
Asking for a friend.
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I have a talent for that too!
Bought Plug Power in 2015 and sold it with a bit of a plus in 2019. Felt great well… until 2021 came. I thought OK should have stayed in Hydrogen so I bought AFC Energy since it looked good at that time. Well I am 75% down now but don’t wanna sell because Plug Power you know…
Anybody else invested in AFC Energy and has a take on it?
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How do you even find companies like Plug Power or AFC Energy?
Purely speculative or something else? Genuinely interested as I don’t think they would ever show up in any screener that I use for lack of data or for, um, well, bad data (aka no or negative earnings since forever).
Anyway you piqued my curiosity and I checked the companies on FastGraphs. For your reference:
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If you’re wondering why S&P500 fell today: I closed out my short position yesterday
And no, I’m not suicidal, it was part of a short SPY, long IWM pair trade that was closed out.
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Thanks for sharing the graphs. But yes, they are not giving much information.
Anyway years ago I wrote my master thesis about economic aspects of hydrogen powered vehicles so I researched quite a bit about technologies and companies too. That’s how I found Plug Power, now a few years back hydrogen became a bit of a hype (stock-wise) but I missed out on any rally since I followed the ETF approach promoted here.
But I still find it intriguing to buy stocks from individual companies that I want to support or that somewhat attract my attention, so yes I guess that’s what I did with AFC. It was and is purely speculative I will have to admit.
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I personally would quite strongly disagree: for a long term investor* the graphs provide literally all the information you need.
The premise of my thesis is that price eventually tracks earnings and the P/E multiple tracks earnings growth.
I.e. earnings in principle justify price and earnings growth justify a certain multiple of earnings per share (EPS), the higher the earnings growth, the higher the multiple.
Neither of these hydrogen companies have any earnings or earnings growth to show for as evidenced by the graphs and hence they are not investments (for me).
Compare this to boring company like Johnson & Johnson
or even boring but somewhat cyclical companies like Best Buy
These are both textbook examples of price relatively quickly catching up with proper valuation (aka earnings/earnings growth).
I’ll admit that sometimes it takes years or even a decade for the price to catch up with what the fundamentals suggest, but eventually the rubberband between price and earnings will do its thing.
Here’s one that’s worked in my favor: Iron Mountain
I accumulated my position when the price was way below fair value in 2020 and had to wait 3 years until price exceeded fair value.** In the past half year or so, the company got way overvalued – probably because of the AI hype – and I sold off some of it (about the amount of what I initially paid for my position).
Here’s one that’s not really worked out so far: Altria
Built up most of my position in 2020, stock price is still roughly at where I bought it. The dividend yield is nice, though, and I am still convinced the price will return to fair value eventually (and I just added to my position today 
).
Even megacaps like mighty Tesla – not invested, needless to say – feel the gravitational pull of proper valuation eventually. I’ve tried shorting Tesla via buying long dated Puts
but this has been painful – well, about $200 went up in smoke – and taught me in practice what I already knew in theory: to remain humble and true to the saying that the market can stay irrational much longer than I can stay solvent.
Based on the current price trajectory, it looks like this will take another 2 to 3 years until price reaches fair valuation for Tesla.
But it wouldn’t surprise me if the price dropped more suddenly on unexcpected news or if the company remained way overvalued for another 5 years.
Be well and invest well!
* As a speculator, you of course don’t need to worry about any fundamentals like earnings or earnings growth. This isn’t meant in a dismissive way.
When I started out picking stock I would pick the ones I felt I knew something about and that I thought would have a bright future without even knowing about fundamentals, let alone looking at them.
And it’s of course totally fine to speculate.
** While waiting, I was getting compensated with a close to 10% annual dividend on my initial investment, which made it easier to invest in the first place.
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Quick question, do you estimate % yield per individual position cost basis, weighted to get an average?
I am asking because yield is somewhat misleading given it can change with stock movements.
Any comments on Nvidia after it lost like 15% this month or even increasing the amount of Nvidia stocks or starting to buy them now ?
Yep, correct.
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Yes - don’t buy stocks based on current hypes (if you don’t consider them as bets).
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About 30 mins before close, I was umming and ahhing about buying INTC puts but wasn’t sure when the market would recognise the bad position INTC was in. It turned out that it would take just a few hours.
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