Am I the only one to be worried?

The point is if you believe in WW3 with nuclear conflict, what are you doing here writing in an online forum about investments. Go spend your money today and live large before it all goes to sh!t. :sweat_smile:

IMHO what’s the point of 13000 nuclear warheads. Russia is so centralized. Take out Moscow and then you’re done. And if they have to launch each rocket one by one it will take them days to launch all of them if takes 30 seconds each.

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Thanks for the suggestion. The idea of buy and hold definitely works, with the assumption that it always goes up.

Like BTC in 2017? :smiley:

Maybe you know her:
Gold1

Gold2

Because it can go down another 30% and in the meantime why not to buy something that goes up, and go back to stock in the way up?

TA could be just buy when it’s in up trend. Right now VT is in downtrend since Nov 21.
So normal people that are making a living with trading, how can do that? :slight_smile:

I agree

:smiley:

And given how poorly they perform in invading their neighbours, I wouldn’t be surprised if many of their missiles would also fail…

Are there people consistently making money with trading? Normal people, of all kinds?

Yes, exactly. And in 2021.

I meant that in 2017 (20k USD) everyone said that it’s too late. Then it crashed, then it went ATH in 2021 (65k USD)

And then nobody wanted to hear about it.

Exactly.

In the long-term.

It can also go up again or the other thing that goes up, suddenly goes down 30%. What you describe is market timing and it doesn’t work in the long-term. When is the point to go back into stocks? Most people that do this get back in when it’s already too late and miss on the high gains, basically the worst strategy ever buy high, sell low.

People that make a living with trading earn comissions.

Perhaps slightly off-topic, but this reminded me of this interesting research paper mentioned in Ben Felix’s video about day trading.

We show that it is virtually impossible for individuals to day trade for a living, contrary to what course providers claim. We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world. We find that 97% of all individuals who persisted for more than 300 days lost money. Only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage and only 0.5% earned more than the initial salary of a bank teller — all with great risk.

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I read something similar and by the way I’m not even trying to do anything like that.
I would like to understand if it makes sense with a small part of a portfolio, or new cash, re-balance in an assets/commodity that is doing fine and can perform well for a certain amount of time (War = Gold, no war = move back to stock)

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Again market timing. I don’t know why people on this forum advise to now buy gold or commodities. In the long run stocks always win.

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I don’t get why there is should be just one logic/strategy and that’s should be the holy grail of investing.
It’s not timing. There is a war and there are consequences on the economy.

Have you watched/read the last book/video of Ray Dalio? There are cycles. Before the Dutch, then the British, then the US, then …

Moving assets between classes for a certain period of time just because you think it will perform better is not market timing?

Not to be ignorant but a stock portfolio of VT or MSCI World + MSCI Emerging Markets should follow the market if there is a new world order so I don’t personally see the need to read the book? I might be wrong but that is my personal opinion as of right now.

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Investing in what has been performing well recently is market timing.

The commodity trading companies who consistently make money have some kind of legalised inside knowledge or a dominant position. For example they own oil producing assets, or have a large fleet of ships etc.

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:slight_smile: I’m trying to absorb as much as I can. At least I can understand a bit more about macro economics.
I have a portion of VT as well, but I’m trying to retire earlier and if there is the risk to work more years if I’m wrong, I take it and that’s it.

I get that.
I see it differently. I’m not trying to find the bottom, there is a war and it’s a fact. There are assets that perform well during war…why not take advantage and then go back to the previous strategy when it’s over?

I can relate, I thought I was specially clever and bought some “undervalued” Russian stocks half a year ago, they are now down 88% :sob: :sob: :rofl:

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Because it is too late! You are not the only one able to add 1 and 1. For gold to go further up, the expected future should become worse than now.

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If it’s common knowledge it’s already priced in.

And how you decide, when it’s over?

You can have only one strategy, all the time. If your assets allocation would be 5% in Gold, you would hoard lots of it in last two years and now this stack would jump up and you could have used it to buy more stocks - according to your AA. Now it is too late. Decreasing the risk when the market is down is the same as selling low. You should keep your assets allocation or increase the risk when the market is down and decrease the risk when the market is up. It is exactly opposite to what your animal brain is telling you, so it is quite difficult. It is good to have a bigger picture in mind in such moments. I personally believe in mathematics and it helps me to hold on.

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