Am I the only one to be worried?

What threshold are you considering?
Actually everytime something big happens (ie covid), I’m looking to UVXY or simply SQQQ, but then I chicken out really quick

I sometimes skip when it’s >25 VIX (usually the swings are really large day to day when that happens).

I think that there is something more frightening for an investor than the war and this is the raise of interest rate.
I doubt (but may be I do not understand something) that ultra low or even negative interest rate is achievable in euro currency with the actual situation: inflation, the euro going down respective to CHF, the large investment going in war effort and weapon system donation to Ukraine, Moldavia, Baltic States who else…
I believe that today there are investments more interesting than the financing of the main residence of John Doe, who is over indebted because he buys a house at multiple factors respective to the construction cost.

VT below 94 starts to be a bit frightening

You mean exciting :rofl: - frightning would be more around 50 USD…

4 Likes

Yes, time for a little test of your risk tolerance.

VT is back to the level of 14 months ago. Nothing to be scared about.

4 Likes

Not even 15% off the ATH…
Until it’s -50% it’s just a decent little discount.

China, on the other hand, starts looking juicy. :ghost:

It has ways to go much lower, do you need that money in the coming years?

Note that it could also rebound without previous notice, best to be prepared for both scenarios.

Edit:

The Evergrande’s crisis is (finally) starting to unfold in China, it’s anybody’s guess whether foreign investors will get their capital back. Who knows what will happen with chinese “stocks” in the future?

Edit2: On a related note, the Nasdaq composite has closed in bear market territory. :smiley:

1 Like

Spx broke today an important support.
Never looked into gold, but it sounds it could be the right time.

Fortunately no (for now).

1 Like

I don’t see all of the world’s markets crashing down together to 0 due to the current environment, so this would be an occasion to buy on the cheap on the way down and the way up then.

If you go for gold, be sure to determine under which conditions you’re planning to sell it and get back into stocks (unless you plan to keep gold as part of your standard allocation from now on).

1 Like

Do you believe in technical analysis?

Why? What does make it sound like it’s the right time to invest in gold now?

2 Likes

it’s proven that in periods of uncertainties gold performs well and you don’t have even to look into the past or in the future…just recent days

It’s not a religion…:slight_smile:

When you entered at 108 it still burn a little.

1 Like

Two quotes for both topics:

Past performance is not indicative for future results.

It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

I can recommend “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” for an excellent critique of technical analysis. Technical Analysis goes against the buy and hold strategy, which most people do that invest in VT.

4 Likes

When everyone starts talking about investing in something, it’s too late already.

3 Likes

Enter at 94 then.
(More)

Not sure why one would consider gold when stocks have just become a lot cheaper.

To put things into perspective: during WW2 when there actually was nuclear warfare, markets were back to normal and recovered within 5 years.

Each crisis, at first, always feels like the world is going to end.

And technical analysis… don’t even know where to start: seems so arbitrary. If you change your price scale from linear to log, use candle-sticks instead of something else, change the time horizon from 1 year to 2 years, adjust for corporate actions/dividends (or not)… at some point you’re going to find a line in a chart that you like :slight_smile:

5 Likes

Don’t panic, don’t sell and keep diversified across different assets and rebalance regularly! Make sure you have a healthy cash buffer and hold gold and commodities (and maybe some bitcoin). My portfolio has lost only 6% in 2022 (beacause commodities and gold went went up nearly 20% YTD) but I expect at some point central banks will go back to print more money and then most real assets will rise again.

number of nuclear warheads during WW2 can be counted on one hand (also only available at the very end at that).

number of nuclear warheads today = 13’000

(comparing their “explosive energy” would be even more extreme)

1 Like

Same here, 6.5% loss.

Almost funny that those assets that lost most value were my genius attempts at stock-picking. Only a small part of my portfolio, though.

And the technology back then was not what we have today. No thermonuclear weapons, no MIRV, etc.

2 Likes