Earlier this year I sold my company for USD 500K. Also, in mid-2024 I liquidated all my stocks/ETF and have not returned to investing. This is my situation right now:
USD 350’000 in personal account
CHF 150’000 in savings accounts
CHF 30’000 cash balance at IBKR
CHF 16’000 monthly savings
Few personal thoughts:
USD/CHF exchange rate is eating my lunch since January
I just want to park my money at a place better than personal/savings accounts
I don’t want to move hundreds of thousands into etf/stocks in a quarter
Would be great to move a big chunk into an instrument that at least saves me from inflation (What for USD? What for CHF?)
Should I shove substantial amount into into 2a?
Contributions to 3a already maxed
I am considering exchanging more USD to CHF, expecting the dollar to fall more
Never invested in bonds, but might be interesting in my situation
What’s the rest of your portfolio? (2a, 3a, RE, any other investments apart from all this cash?)
What’s your ultimate equity allocation target?
You do not want anything in equity ever again, or what’s the deal?
P.S. If your monthly savings are really that big - your stash is really not that overly sized, so going back into equity by even 50k / quarter is not going to change your situation.
For “inflation protection” - for USD there are TIPS, for CHF you can look at mid term notes at Cembra.
Edit: Forgot to say - Congratulations on your exit!
I’d simply target your desired portfolio allocation, moving money into equity every month to reach the target (50k-100k at a time)
For non equity can consider pillar2 buy-in given what I expect is a high marginal tax rate.
Note: i wouldnt hold USD unless I planned to spend USD in the future. Don’t hold USD cash but at least put it in something with risk free rate (which is well above USD inflation) like boxx or an mmf. TIPS move with inflation but it’s not the same as inflation protection (Inflation expectation are priced in).
Hm, what would be the logic? One can hedge capital, but money flows are difficult. Hedging those just slightly postpones the inevitable. (Of course, one could hedge all the future flows, but normally one doesn’t know the future and the leveraged volatility would result in margin calls quickly.)
So it only makes sense if they need time to renegotiate your contract or cut you loose (on future changes in fx).
I would have never exited stocks. I would have converted the cash from the business sale to other stocks.
Holding everything in cash since over a year ago is a market timing decision. I hold it unlikely that you have any edge in those. It seems to be driven mainly by gut feeling.
If you want a bit of tax savings now for decades of low return with no control, maybe? Of course there are ways for a bit more control (and maybe return), but the money will stay locked up one way or another.
0% return on a CHF account is top market rate.
For instruments to increase upon that, I agree with @nabalzbhf’s suggestions.
Lower level for one singular year time frame. We are not at all at any “bottom” of the USD. Especially not at multi-year horizons.
There is nothing saying you can‘t have a some bad years in a row. Might not be the second worst year next year, but could be the 10th worst year and continue a downward trend.
Unless there is statistical significance that after such a bad year, positive years are following, this is not saying anything basically.
I think USD will keep sinking against the euro and CHF.
My thesis is that we will keep electing populist politicians on both side of the Atlantic. They will tackle economic insatisfaction with 2 different approaches. In Europe through repressive taxation and in the US through money printing.
Both will have severe consequences. Allocate accordingly.
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