Irrational exuberance.
Or wrong, yes.
Though then again, they just might see something (growth perspectives, take-over, competitive advantage?) that others don‘t.
I guess buying sustainable cashflows is at least preferable in a market downturn and/or recession.
What your exact plan now?
I don’t understand why you call it casino capitalism. Imagine the central banks would not have intervented. Then we would have a stock market crash like 1929-1932.
I don’t fully agree with the interventions, but also think there was no other alternative.
So you are going to work another 10 years? Plenty of time for stock markets to recover, even though 20+ years would be better indeed.
Different times back then. Also, see my comment from the start of this post. Back in 1929, central banks didn’t intervent (I would have to check if FED already existed). This is a complex topic, and it’s not so easy to compare to our world nowadays.
But let’s say you are right: we are going into a deep recession. When are you going to buy back into stocks again? Because you will need a plan for re-entering the stock market (unless you want to stay with your suboptimal 30/70 allocation).
That’s something to be seen. For an investment horizon >20years, lump sum is the best. If your investment horizon is shorter, then DCA or holding more cash (to avoid SWDR risk) might be the better option.
Excellent question, which I do not have an satisfying answer. Guess as in my head I already won the FIRE game (even with zero yield), so I will just step aside and analyse the market situation every 6 months from now. If the Central Bank pump the money into the system for the next 10 years, yes this will be my loss then. If the marked crashed heavy, I will not join the investing club until people on the street will say “Remember that crash a few years ago, where I lost most money and I will never invest in equities again…”. This can take a long time as the Nikkei 225 index shows.
I would really advice you to make a good plan. Just looking at the markets won’t change a thing about your situation. Markets go up, markets go down, markets stay flat. Nothing you can really base your decision on as it’s highly random.
I think the best thing you could do is chose the right asset allocation which matches your risk tolerance and stick with it. There is nothing wrong with selling stocks when you realize that your stock exposure is too high for your current risk tolerance. But selling and waiting to re-enter without any metrics doesn’t sound good at all.
50/50 stocks/bonds (please forget gold, it’s expected real return is 0% with a volatility close to stocks, so IMO a terrible investment) would be a great starting point for someone closer to retirement. A -50% crash would only mean -25% for you and +33% needed to recover comapred to -50% and +100% for a 100% stock portfolio. So you could potentionally stick with that AA for the rest of your life.
Which bull market? the one who started in March 24th 2020?
Well, it’s just 3 months old, why can’t it last for a decade or two?
Did you mix up bear vs. bull, or am I misunderstanding?
I mean, for someone to sell technically there needs to be a buyer too, but your claim sounds a bit contradictory to me (sentiment-wise).
Did you perhaps mean that bull shows up after the above occurs?
In which case, there was quite a selloff, no?
You are talking about it as if it’s a physical law lol.
Stock markets are highly random. Bear/bull market are just human concepts, but they mean nothing in the end. “Bull markets” can last for 2 years or 20 years
For me it’s right decision but please be worry about your CHF money in cash !
EU Bank has been saved by give them ~1’300’000’000€ for cover their lost and pretty huge leverage. (5-6x more than US bank. Lehmann Brother have a lower leverage than some EU bank…)
Search “bankster” in french who explain really good the situation.
EU bank can take money from 100’000€ to their customer for pay their errors after Greece but this amount can be lower if not enough. If EU bank close CH bank can’t be saved this time… so please take care about your cash in money and split between all banks possible without fee for keep low amount of money.
Just for reply at this post I follow exactly the same OogieBookie way from weeks. I sell all my stocks positives for the moment but if go down again sell all even if I lost money.
You win more when the stock goes up than lost when goes down so always cheaper to take a cheaper stock than keep higher priced stock. I learn that in march of this year 
All signs are bad first time ever the oil is negative. I view this fall in live time and can’t trust that and send that to all my friends. Someone pay you for take their OIL !
But yes we are at a bull market… it’s probably only a fake rebound due to fake money who go deeper and deeper until reach the bottom. Where is the bottom to a so huge amount of printed money ?
It’s just fake money and decrease the value of each money on this world like argentina. Money have just no more value anymore. Money = huge amount of debt
And someone should pay these debts one day or other who meaning INCREASE TAXES.
Yes for sure. Every CHF 100k add an additional account with another bank. Just playing defensive and it doen’t really cost me anything more. I don’t know more or better than all of you, but for me it is time to invest in a fire insurance policy (and still hope that I will never need that).
Bull market, bear market, Po-tay-to po-tah-to, these are just words. Literally.
Who cares about the “exact” definitions of things? Linguists? Philosophers?
I admire both linguists and philosophers, but while many economists and maybe even investors care about “exact” definitions of things, that’s not exactly what I would call them out for to qualify.
At any rate, @OogieBoogie has a point just as much as many of his critics do, but this thread sounds mostly like a debate club rather than anything rooted in facts and numbers.
It always has been (at least since World War I). Still, it’s a casino that produced a nice return over last century.
Was looking for a comprehensive article I read a few weeks ago, but then found this instead. All the broker and online banks have record new openings of trading accounts - special case is the Robin Hood traing platform in the US, which has new 3 million new accounts in 2020 alone.
i am new to stock market and exchange and very less aware about the risks involved. any help will be highly appreciated
How is it going btw? Already back in the market?
Haha, I see where this might go. Either I will make myself to the biggest fool here in the forum, or you will hate me anyways, if the market would really tumble hard.
To your question: bought additional Gold and some BTC, but am still heavy in cash (and now gold) and have some smaller positions in S&P500, FAANG and BTC.
PS. I cannot state this enough, this is no investing advise. My situation is probably different - I am 50 and will reach my goal in 10y even with zero yield/performance. The big risk for me is - to not reach FI savely - if there is a big and deep recession of several years (which I really don’t hope to come!).
What’s your strategy if we enter a new 10+ year bull market and markets keep rising? Any concrete plans when to re-enter?
When there is a change I really expect a change to come in the next 2-3 quarters. If this will not occur till then, for sure I will adjust. I am not a Doom guy, but in my eyes pragmatic and realist.