Who wants it back to normal ? Investor dilemma?

[ehwhynot]

Hello,

As an investor I want my VT share to grow … means recover for the market crisis and grow again …
But how I see it now with the slowdown of our economy, I don’t want it either. Our world need a break.
It is nice to see postive outcome for the nature after a month … even Venise water has changed … China air pollution reduced …
At the moment, it is difficult to argue that our economy is doing great for our world …

I don’t know what to think … how do you see yourself in this situation ? Are you only an investor ?

(PS: I’m not in favor of a pendemic and people dying … )

[Cortana]

I think it’s great that I can buy stocks on a discount. This whole crash will boost my longterm performance for sure, eventhough I started investing right at the top. On another side my grandmother is already sick and this virus could take her out, so I’m concerned. I’m also concerned about my girlfriend because she is self-employed and can’t get any earning in the next 5 weeks.

[Giff]

Thanks for this post.

For months now I live a very contrasted life: on one hand I see that I could retire in a matter of a few years (well, that at least was the case before the recent crash), while on the other hand I know that this way of life and of doing business will lead to catastrophic issues for our species, mainly linked to climate change and loss of biodiversity.

I hope this pandemic and the economic crash connected to it will be a wake up call for us as a specie and boost our efforts to transition to a more sustainable society.

[weirded]

Yeah, I’m also quite conflicted here…

E.g. for work reasons, I have to drive approx. 40k km/year. I’d like to avoid burning so much fuel and would like to switch to electric for the environment but for financial reasons I’m hesitating since my car is doing very well and putting 60k on the table will definitely slow down my progress towards FI…

[ParaStachian]

Same here.

In the past year I have more and more issues with how this world is running. But in the same time I have an ok salary and am gaining easy money with stocks.
Now that it crashed, I want to invest to gain more easy money, but on the other side I see it as encouraging the world back to full capitalism. (Of course I do not see all company as evil but many are bad and many more are useless).
I am resigning myself to buy ESGV to try to incentivise company at being better. It’s clearly not enough, but I want easy money, and will not start stock picking.

I hope that this crisis will help to show a few things:

• that we are capable to adapt when we want
• that most excuses given for the lack of action for global warning are just excuses
• that we should listen to scientist
• that we like to spend more time with family and friend and do not need frantic consumption
• that a globalized world with global supply chain without stock is very fragile
• that government has a lot more flexibility on what to do with money than mostly discussed, and that a global discussion is needed (UBI and helicopter money VS saving huge company and QE)

[Bojack]

@Giff

this way of life and of doing business will lead to catastrophic issues for our species, mainly linked to climate change and loss of biodiversity

Recently I watched a docuseries Our Planet, narrated by David Attenborough. The scenes are amazing, but also heart-wrecking. Like hundreds of thousands of walruses crowded on cliffs, because the ice has melted. This series speaks from a moral high ground, telling how humans have destroyed life on Earth.

However, I think there is no way back. We may cut back here in Europe, but billions of Chinese, Indians and Africans will come up the economic ladder and will want the same things we have now. I think the way to save the planet is through technology. I believe in solar and wind farms, in electric cars and battery storage. I’m a big fan of what Elon Musk is doing, you should check out how his endeavors could disrupt our World.

What we could change, perhaps, is our attitude towards consumption and economic growth. I find it sad that we see economic growth mostly through stimulating consumption. And so we allow people to get in debt at low cost, to indulge their consumptionist needs. I think this needs to change. We should not distort the supply and demand of goods and resources with monetary policies. This leads to waste. We should change our mindset and put more value to investment and technological progress and look more bashfully at consumption. But I don’t actually believe that this shift might happen.

[Giff]

@Bojack

However, I think there is no way back. We may cut back here in Europe, but billions of Chinese, Indians and Africans will come up the economic ladder and will want the same things we have now.

Yes, and they deserve to get levels of wealth that would allow them to thrive and contribute more to the world’s progress.

But we simply cannot afford to live the way we do, especially because the emerging economies want to reach our level of wealth: we need to LOWER our consumption drastically to be a better model. After all, we now know EMPIRICALLY that travelling all the time, wasting food, living in huge houses or driving huge cars does not bring us more happiness than having a bit more than our basic needs met. It’s a bit like when people start to smoke: they see smokers apparently having a good time with their cigarette, not knowing that most of them would very much like to quit.

@Bojack

I think the way to save the planet is through technology.

I also believe technology will play a fundamental role in “fixing” this broken society, but I think it won’t be enough, especially because our paradigm based on consumption is also driving much of the technological development.

@Bojack

What we could change, perhaps, is our attitude towards consumption and economic growth. I find it sad that we see economic growth mostly through stimulating consumption. And so we allow people to get in debt at low cost, to indulge their consumptionist needs. I think this needs to change. We should not distort the supply and demand of goods and resources with monetary policies. This leads to waste. We should change our mindset and put more value to investment and technological progress and look more bashfully at consumption.

Agreed.

[ParaStachian]

Tesla is a good example, they are indeed improving the technology very fast and are helping us go toward a better future.
However they are also an example of consumerism, they have the biggest battery, the fastest vehicles and are clearly upselling as much as possible. And Musk himself is clearly one big polluter/consumer.

(It probably was the best solution to make the fastest transition to electricity, but they could change that now)

As you said, there are two ways out, the technological, or the reduction of our consumption/pollution. And as you said they are not exclusive of each other.
Personally I am maybe 5% confident in the technological way out (if we speak about the whole world population)… And the simple existence of this way out makes a lot of people ignore the other one which is dangerous.

How do you see the decoupling of consumption and economic growth with technological progress?
As I see it typically technological progress has implied more consumption, the obsolete thing is replaced by the new thing. Of course the new thing is a little better and consumes a little less that the previous but can it be so much better as to offset its production?

[Bojack]

@ParaStachian

However they are also an example of consumerism, they have the biggest battery, the fastest vehicles and are clearly upselling as much as possible. And Musk himself is clearly one big polluter/consumer.

Yes, no doubt about it. It’s like ICE car < Tesla < no car. But that’s the beauty of billionaires and their ventures: they let us have nice things at lower cost. And ideally, lower dollar cost should mean lower environmental cost.

@ParaStachian

As you said, there are two ways out, the technological, or the reduction of our consumption

I certainly bet on technology. When I consider how I could reduce my consumption, I can’t think of many things. For sure I could give up travelling, though that would make my life much more boring. I work and work and the only things I look forward to are when I can finally travel and explore new places. Other than that? I have no car, I go to work by bike. I own shitty cheap clothes which I wear way longer than most people do. I don’t go jet skiing, bungee jumping, racing. I own a smartphone and laptop, which i replace every 4 years. What more can I reduce?

[Cortana]

Maybe meat consumption?

[Bojack]

That’s another myth of Greta Thunberg followers. Production of plant-based “meat” is very energy intensive. Soya crops also cost a lot of energy and produce a lot of CO2.

[ma0]

@Bojack

That’s another myth

I think he meant to reduce consumption, not to substitute it.

[Julianek]

I’ll live that here, but yes, technology is the solution, as in the last 300 years.

@Naval Ravikant

You know, the struggle with the modern environmental movement is that they identify the correct problem which is finite earth spaceship. Earth is all we got, don’t ruin it.

But they don’t have the solution. So what they say is no growth, no growth, no growth.

The problem is you got 3 billion Indian and Chinese who aren’t going to stay in poverty. They’re gonna roll whether you like it or not. So you can yell at them, you can scream at them, you can yell at us and scream at us, but that’s not gonna happen.

So the only way out, unfortunately is, again, through technology, which is you have to build green technology. And I give Musk a lot of credit, you know, for being one of the few people who’s out there trying to do that.

So you build things that are biodegradable and good for you and healthier. And everybody wants to be healthier; Chinese want to be healthier, Indians want to be healthier.

They want to be cleaner. If you say, “I can clean up your rivers, I can clean up your forests, I can have your children not get sick with cholera and diphtheria and typhoid, I can cure your diseases, I can help make your immune system stronger, I can give you clean drinking water.”

Like, that is what causes people to become environmentalists. Not shouting and screaming at them that they shouldn’t grow and they should stop pumping things into the sky.

You know, they have no concept of that. They’re just trying to get out of poverty. So, I think the modern environmental movement identifies the correct problem, but then doesn’t come up with the right set of solutions that are appealing to people.

People are not going to give up economic growth. They’re gonna have to get rich first.

Joe Rogan : That’s – Yeah, that’s a very good point. But how do do you do both?

NR : You lower the price of clean technologies massively. So you basically make clean technologies cost competitive –

JR: Through subsidy?

NR : Through technologies. Innovation, ideally, you can subsidize in the short to medium term until the innovation curve is crossed. I mean, like, Tesla doesn’t have any patents, right?

NR : Or they freely give away their patents. That’s the example of how you can do it. So, you know, someone – if you wanna get rid of plastics such straws, yeah, you can do it here and there, you can get San Francisco to ban plastic straws.

But China’s not gonna ban plastic straws. Not until you build a paper straw that is, you know, same cost, good durability.

And then you educate the Chinese like, “Hey, this is petroleum. You know this plastic that you’re doing is petroleum. This is bad for you. Here is the chemical composition. Here’s the things that are going into the bloodstream.”

And they want healthy, happy kids also. So they’re gonna have their kids use paper straws. Maybe straws aren’t the best example, but you can – you know, this is true with fossil fuels for example. That’s probably the best one. Or replacing a lot of plastics with glass and paper and so on.

[Bojack]

@ma0

I think he meant to reduce consumption

Yes, let’s all walk around hungry and undernourished. Great tip!

[Giff]

You really think you’d be hungry and undernourished just by eating less meat?

[xorfish]

The important question is if it uses more or less energy than conventional meat.

[Bojack]

@Giff

You really think you’d be hungry and undernourished just by eating less meat?

Can you understand what you’re reading? He wrote REDUCE not SUBSTITUTE.

Is Meat Bad for the Environment? | Amazon Rainforest Fires

[Giff]

@Bojack

What more can I reduce?

Shorter/less frequent showers? Less meat and diary consumption? Less food products grown in greenhouses and/or on the other side of the planet? Turn down the thermostat in winter? Less intense internet usage, e.g., by streaming less high definition videos? Putting pressure on your representative to dismiss fossil fuels?

These are just some examples of easy things to do to lower our footprint, even when, as in your case, it already looks better than the average (but be careful with flying: that is VERY polluting and one single flight a year can bring you over the European average emission per capita).

[Giff]

@Bojack

Can you understand what you’re reading? He wrote REDUCE not SUBSTITUTE.

I think I understood well… you started talking about plant-based meat substitutes. What did I write to deserve this aggressive tone?

[glina]

@Giff

ess intense internet usage, e.g., by streaming less high definition videos?

You can’t be serious. You really think going back to SD will have an impact on the environment?