Which oil share to choose

Hello,

I analyzed 3 oil companies (exxon mobil, Chevron corporation and TotalEnergies)

I’m not thinking of investing in Exxon but I’m hesitating between Chevron and Total because they are very similar I think.

Total seems to be more interested in renewable energies but it seems that Total has less potential than Exxon and Chevron because it is on the French market

What is your opinion on these oil companies? And which one would you choose?

Thanks for your reply

What do you want to achieve? Is an extra challenge that you set to yourself for your investment strategy that you need to stock pick some oil company?

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I’m diversifying my portfolio and I want an oil stock. This is because I don’t have any commodity stocks in my portfolio except for gold.

I think that oil still has a future for 10-15 years but after that the oil companies will have to make a transition to renewable energies or they will disappear

I’m sorry but that doesn’t sound like diversifying to me. Adding a single stock is more likely to have the inverse effect.

I think if you want to make strategic bets you’ll need a much stronger thesis (and it’s going to be a risky endeavor, will be way more volatile than a diversified portfolio).

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How about LOIL? 20 chars

Better olive oil extra vergine.

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Care to share your analysis ? Why did you pick these 3 companies at 1st ? What is the result of your analysis ?

Not having a particular one, though from hearsay, TotalEnergies may be most interested in pivoting into renewables. But I haven’t done your analysis (or any for that matter) about these companies.

The one that is, according to your analysis, least likely to disappear.

Look, you have done your analysis. “Big oil” has been, for the better part of the 20th century, macroeconomically one of the most important and dominant industries on the planet. You’re also predicting, based on your analysis, that the industry will go bust within relatively few (10-15) years from now.

According to that premise and based on your own analysis, shouldn’t your investment decision be crystal clear? :point_right:t2: To invest in the company that is best positioned and most committed to successfully pivot from this dying industry to others, to transform from mostly oil producers to becoming energy producers.

So?

The red tape and taxation in France may suck, from an enterprise standpoint.
Yet if you’re positing a paradigm shift in the energy business, and if you want to invest (for diversification purposes) into what is - according to your own analysis - a declining or dying sector (the oil industry), who cares if it’s a bloody French business? I mean, it’s not like France were a particularly unstable, unreliable or risky one at that.

With the industry sea change you’re predicting yourself, the company’s jurisdiction should be one of your lesser concerns.

I already have an etf portfolio and now I am building a stock pincking portfolio and I take the best companies in each sector according to my criteria.

Thank you very much for your comment which helped me in my choice.

I will invest in TotalEnergie which I think has the most potential.

It will also allow me to diversify with currencies and it will be my first investment in a company in France.

Have a nice evening

Hello,

I first chose the 6-7 biggest companies in the oil sector (I eliminated Saudi Aramco because it was too opaque and I didn’t want to invest in the region where it is located). Then I compared the different charts of the companies since their creation and I chose the ones I liked the most (stable, growing and with a good trend).

At this point I was already left with exxon chevron and total I then analyzed their financials and for all 3 it was very similar. But I liked the fact that total had a lot of cash. The dividend is very interesting for the 3 companies, especially for Exxon, which has been paying it for about 50 years without interruption. But Total had less debt to maintain its dividend during the crisis than Exxon Mobil and Chevron, which I liked a lot.

I looked at various ecological criteria and what the three companies were planning for their future. What allowed me to dismiss exxon was its vision of the future and the risks they could take to maintain their dividend.

And between chevron I chose Totalenergie because it is invested in several energies and I prefer the vision of total.

I have simplified my analysis a lot otherwise it would have taken me hours to explain everything.

I will recommend Ben Felix vidéos and podcast on ESG and Climate change investing.

Studies on the topic already shown that end of oil, climate change and renewable énergies are already priced in the share prices of oil companies.
So why picking oil companies as there is no discount in the share prices ?

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