Nice 
So I need just to know when Cortana is buying. Is it still working?
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No. I think Iâve taken over his role now. If youâre wondering why Chinese stocks recovered, it was because I sold all my China stocks 
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How did it work?
How did it go?
3800, but off the bottom. Thanks AI, I think.
On one hand, stocks are not economy. On the other hand, VT did fall to 77 çŸć in October 2022.
I remember we had some arguments then, @wavemotion . How did and do you fare?
That was not bad, actually. Can you repeat your prediction feat?
Still in VT
But sold too early individual stocks (like nvda)
I had also a gold thesis when the war in Ukraine started and that went pretty good.
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I used my âdry powderâ to increase my position in Smithson Fund SSON below its peak. It was a long term investment not for 2.5 years but as of today I am about 1% up in CHF terms
My Fundsmith and SSON investments are still below their Dec 2021 peak in CHF whilst per your separate analysis (fat years thread) the overall market is up. The bigger question is whether a quality strategy is still valid for me in the long term and I believe it is
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Second time correct!
I would say we as a community have recognized the (highly probable) bottom when it happened, while still keeping a cautious approach.
This was really accurate across many assets.
What was your thesis/trigger?
I have no followed the forum for some time now. Nice to see that my contributions were helpful.
Honestly, if you follow markets trends you will see pattern, and to some point the market is more a herd mentality and a psychological game than rational decisions. Basically no one knows anything and everyone thinks the next one knows more, leading to massive trends sending waves in the market with overvaluations and overcorrections.
I will look at the charts later and post my thesis.
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Thanks for taking the time to reply, really appreciate it.
Your perspective makes a lot of senseâmarket trends do follow patterns, and human psychology plays a huge role in driving price movements. As you said, the market is often more about herd mentality than rational decisions. News events tend to accelerate what is already forming in the charts rather than creating new trends from nothing.
That said, while patterns can be useful, they are never infallibleâsome fail more often than others. In the end, as you pointed out, nobody truly knows what will happen; we can only talk in terms of probabilities. This is why risk management is crucialâif the probability goes against us, we need a plan and the discipline to follow it.
And when everything becomes overvalued, thereâs always a âreasonâ for a correction at some point. Itâs how large funds and institutions âcast the netâ and take liquidity from smaller traders caught on the wrong side.
Looking forward to your thesis when you post it!
This is just my take, might be incorrect:
Just based on my reads I am in no hurry to buy this dip, I expect a retrace of VT to the 108 till 100 level and for a more aggressive correction till the low 90 to mid 80. From mid 2026 I expect consolidation with later growth.
This could be influenced (accelerated or slowed down) by geopolitical decisions.
More details & explanation:
I expect a consolidation or a retrace for VT (or the whole market), based on the following indicators:
- RSI is currently at 60 (green lines in the bottom), and I think it has to cool down a bit, the lower levels are at about 35, and before a new rally we will hit that. One could say that we have not yet hit the upper levels and therefore we are not yet due for a correction.
- MACD (bottom), we see the wave pattern from positive to negative MACD, we just had our 3rd consecutive red indicator, I expect it to shit negative and stay negative till 2026.
One could ague that the MACD could stay flat just like from 2017 till 2019, and we consolidate at this level. - Support Blue and Orange box; representing the most traded zones over the past.
- Long-Term mean or average price development (red line)
Based on that I foresee a first test of the support at the 2021 highs (blue zone USD 108-100), with a longer term I think a test of the long term support that coincides with the most traded zone (orange box - USD 86 â 94). If we hold on the blue zone a longer consolidation could be expected. The market wont move in a straight line, expect volatility, at the end this is just a guess.
Investor mentality & psychology
In my opinion the stock market has seen stellar returns over the past year(s), especially lead by tech and AI innovation. Everyone was pouring money in the stock market desperate for returns meanwhile, while the indexes are decoupling from reality, invested people feel basically two feelings:
Fear of missing out and fear of selling, since the market went up that much over the past years.
Anxiety for the geopolitical situation, fear of a crash.
Basically everyone knows we are overvalued but is fine with if, since everyone makes money. At the same time they get nervous and keep an eye on the doo and scanning the room for anyone doing quick movements and ready to run as well. This can lead to a panic sell.
The drastic changes applied by the USA opened the door for more geopolitical instability. China and Russia are almost expected to make a move after the big announcements from USA.
The global uncertainty and changing environment will have a big impact to businesses in the coming months. We have seen how quick regulation can change, and I for my part expect bigger changes in the coming year(s).
Own opinion
I see an armed conflict as highly probable as the tension between the countries continue to rise and the political (an mental) shift to the right fuel the desire to âshow strengthâ or âactâ and sometimes (sadly) violence has a big Show off effect while not resolving anything.
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Spelling mistake or freudian slip?
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