That was just a bear market rally, or you can see it as a way to nuke retail investors.
I’m still accumulating cash since Jan 2022
1 Like
Perfect timing with my salary payout 
Got myself a 10 USD discount per VT ETF share compared to last month and I am excited to see how next month is going to look…
2 Likes
Yes, but that there are investors to pile in in these kinds of rallies under these circumstances baffles me. Their losses and my gains, I guess, since I’ve got a small short position on the SP500. I wanted to hold it until February and felt confident while we were over June’s lows. I’ll spend some time this weekend to evalutate if I want to recalibrate my bet or let it run some more.
Edit: just to be clear, I understand perfectly the people who invest what they can at their target asset allocation as soon as it becomes available, day in and day out, and who, as such, do invest in these kinds of rallies. That’s a very smart behavior with a very good returns/risk ratio and I support it fully. This rally felt like money that was sitting on the sidelines suddenly got invested and that’s the behavior that I can’t wrap my mind around: peole who got cash on the sidelines, or available margin they were willing to deploy and who jumped into the US stock market under the circumstances we’ve had from mid June to mid August.
Seen that, we are back at 2020 prices!
Feels a bit like looking at a btc chart…
5 Likes
The yesterday’s intraday low of S&P 500 in USD, which is what most Americans are looking at, was only 8 points above the intraday low in June. And it looks like a rebound today. So for now this statement actually still holds. But I think that if S&P 500 falls below June’s minimum, especially if it closes there, many US traders and even investors are going to sh** their pants.
2 Likes
Patterns work till they dont. The is so much liquidity under that low, DYX will grab that and say thanks.
1 Like
Looks like we are below June’s lows now. 
The super bear 
Michael Burry, he said s&p500 back to 1900
7 Likes
Futures… eh?
There’s a lot of volatility in the US stock market. We could still end the day with the S&P500 at +1.5% and I wouldn’t be surprised.
I wouldn’t rely on technical never reached before precedents to draw conclusions in this market, though I’m curious to see what the coming economic news will bring.
1 Like
I also enjoy perma-bear Jeremy Grantham: He says it’s not just the S&P 500, we’re in an infamous “Everything Bubble”, including ALL asset classes. Nowhere to hide, we’re going down the drain.
Still enjoying my delicious dinner though 
3 Likes
Ok, recap of the world state & economics:
I think its fair to say that we live in a fragile system where small disruption can cause bigger effects. But i also think some problem can be solved (or could be solved if everyone involved want to do so).
Biggest issues for sure are that the average people lose buying power & paper gains, this will lead to unrest.
I think we will see tensions grow, also i have a feeling we will see bigger food issues next year (since the harvest this year was bad).
Europe:
Energy crisis, possible blackouts for Industry.
Bank of England/ UK just making a big mess.
Tension Russia - EU getting higher, imho. if Russia really attacked Nord-Stream 1+2 its an act of war.
Turkey has some issues with inflation, while at the same time loosening its monetary policy.
They are also playing the NATO & Russian side of the conflict.
Asia:
China in lock-down, Oct. 16 the CCP will vote, we might see big changes if Xi Jin Ping won’t be elected again.
Huge Credit issues due to real estate crisis and international countries defaulting on their loans.
Belt & road initiative might have failed.
Tension China Taiwan grow.
USA:
Inflation not under control, the strong USD will cause problems for its exports.
Midterm elections will cause higher volatility.
Overall:
Lots of 3rd world countries fight high inflation and rising prices for food, gas, energy.
Food production is reduced due to heat & water shortages.
Supply chains are under pressure due to closed ports & containers being on the wrong place (there is a fixed amount of containers in the world and they should all move).
Countries moving to the right in politic will further escalate/ impact geopolitical situation.
Anything i missed?
7 Likes
All in all, it’s a great time to buy stocks if you have 10+ years investment horizon.
5 Likes
“This is the most unprecedented cocktail I’ve ever been served up (…) We’ve borrowed so much from our future…”
00:51:55
1 Like
Very good summary. I would add:
More than the midterms in the US, there is the global democracy crisis happening there.
Protests in Iran.
Crypto exchanges bankruptcies.
Crypto regulation being planned in the US.
Mortgage rates increasing, affordability of housing issues and depedency of pension funds and individual home owner on the real estate market.
The worst about this is that politicians are taking inflationary measures to try to look like they are doing something to abate the differential between the rising cost of life and consumption affordability of lower income and middle class voters. The fed is about the only entity I’ve seen acknowledging that bringing down consumption, and as such bringing and enduring pain, is the way they’re willing to fight inflation. The UK mess is just an example of the mess that’s happening.
This.
3 Likes
The financial and system as we know it will be doubted, starting from the big liquidity problem china will have to face and endig by the mess that crypto brought with the stablecoins & the big leverage in this field.
What i miss, and this for me is one sign that we are far from the bottom: scandals, bankruptcy & liquidity issues. Also still to many people willing to “buy the dip”, this does not feel like true pain yet.
Also, there are some big shady business happening all over the world, from the obvious waporware like Nikola, Theranos to just scams like Wework or Evergrande. This is the stuff we know and did not work in a bullmarket. But i am convinced there are more, and they can’t stay afloat once the market turns, they will lead to a cascade effect, just like UST & Luna in the cryptoverse.
To be fair, the Bank of England tried the same, but you need people on the other side to accept the measures and work with you/ believe in the measures.
Worst thing to happen is the situation in the UK where on measure gets nullified by another policy (with the goal to just get elected again).
Also what a lot of people don’t get is, if we raise rate, housing price start to fall but rent will increase what makes inflation worse…
2 Likes
It does not, but it’s not guaranteed we have to go there. I believe there’s still a lot of downside ahead, but there may not.
I’m no specialist but I’d say that rents are a zero sum game: the money renters spend on the increased rents is money taken from some other part of their budget (once the savers’ supply gets depleted). It is then spent by the landlords. Whereas new money created through leverage issued by cash-out refinancing creates additional spending that would not have occurred otherwise.
On other news, the ultra rich as a group got slightly poorer this year. If you’ve managed to increase your net worth, you’re closing the gap.
Yes, I agree. But let’s not get carried away in gloomy pessimism. The past wasn’t so good as we remember it and the future won’t be so grim as we imagine it.
7 Likes
Credit issues. I don‘t see why you’re only mentioning them for Asia or real estate-induced.
Also, since this „edition“ also includes 2024 as per the thread title:
U.S. presidential elections. Trump may win the next one - or worse: just narrowly lose it.
1 Like
But honestly, when, at which moment of (recent) history, there were no current or brewing problems? I am following financial news since 10+ years and I have an impression that they always repeat the same: “we are going through one of the most difficult moments in recent history”, “market volatility is currently very high”. Like that permabear that was right once 15 years ago and since then just keep repeating the same thing. Only looking backwards can we see how great those times were for investments.
2 Likes
Absolutly, the problems are not new, but if you said anything bad in the past years you would have been discredited as “permabear” or “thinfoilhat dude”.
I mean there have been lots of people who said over and over that some sectors are in a bubble and that monetary policy can’t stay at this rare forever.
The problem was there have also been lots of people who just said StOnKs Go Up!
I Agree, we have been overly optimistic and we now risk to be overly pessimistic. It would be nice to have a balanced view.
This is also why i like this forum, we can (to some degree) have balanced views on lots of topics (maybe excluding TSLA, but that’s another discussion).
2 Likes