When do we reach the bottom of the dip? (2022-24 Edition)

Same story here, I did the mistake of not buying during the Pandemic Sale, and now I’m not repeating the same mistake again. Although, I’m stressed and nervous as hell.

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My REITs are especially going down the drain. I think I’ll stop buying them and let them become a smaller and smaller portion of my portfolio.

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Definitely hope there’ll be some panic soon, so far we’ve only reached pre-pandemic heights, that’s rather disappointing :grin: Wonder what’s still missing for panic sellers: we’ve got a bear market, recession fears, war, inflation, supply shortages, high energy/oil prices, rising rates…

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For VT, yes. My European REIT is now well below the pandemic bottom. OTOH, the SP500 is still quite a bit higher than the pre-pandemic top.

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I’d put my bet on earnings compression (somewhat happening), layoffs and/or bankruptcies. We may be getting there but the rebounce could also be quick. We’ll have to see.

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just DCA, if you have 10, 15 or even more years time this is a really good opportunity.

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I’m contemplating switching to VOO (SP500) vs VT.

Yes, the SP500 might still fall a lot, but

  • Europe has shot itself in the foot with sanctions, aa larger recession seems inevitable
  • The ECB can’t significantly raise rates as that would kill the Southern member states
  • Africa and potentially LATAM will suffer a food and energy crisis
  • Developing markets will suffer if their motherland (i.e Germany, US) suffers
  • Small cap will suffer (especially non-profitable small-cap) or be killed by high financing needs
  • Asia - not sure what happens there

Thoughts?

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Isn’t it priced in?

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And many US companies might still have exposure to European markets anyway (and vice versa).

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The US market has been very delusional this far and especially in June-August, when it went for a somewhat consequent rally upon news of a second quarter of negative real GDP. The Fed seems to be following a 1965-82 model where slowing rate increases as inflation slows only goes to allow a new spike a few years later, which they don’t want to allow. They are also willing to crush the real estate market.

This seems to be only starting to sink in, as we head into winter with energy prices that had cooled down bound to raise somewhat again. I’m not confident the S&P 500 is the place to be in in the coming months and wouldn’t change my game plan without a huge amount of confidence behind my bet.

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And today we had hit a new yearly low by all measures.

That was just a bear market rally, or you can see it as a way to nuke retail investors.

I’m still accumulating cash since Jan 2022

Perfect timing with my salary payout :+1: Got myself a 10 USD discount per VT ETF share compared to last month and I am excited to see how next month is going to look…

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Yes, but that there are investors to pile in in these kinds of rallies under these circumstances baffles me. Their losses and my gains, I guess, since I’ve got a small short position on the SP500. I wanted to hold it until February and felt confident while we were over June’s lows. I’ll spend some time this weekend to evalutate if I want to recalibrate my bet or let it run some more.

Edit: just to be clear, I understand perfectly the people who invest what they can at their target asset allocation as soon as it becomes available, day in and day out, and who, as such, do invest in these kinds of rallies. That’s a very smart behavior with a very good returns/risk ratio and I support it fully. This rally felt like money that was sitting on the sidelines suddenly got invested and that’s the behavior that I can’t wrap my mind around: peole who got cash on the sidelines, or available margin they were willing to deploy and who jumped into the US stock market under the circumstances we’ve had from mid June to mid August.