The 2022-2024 dip is kind of over.
Should we start a new thread about our feelings about the current market conditions?
- Yes, start a new thread.
- No, we are not finished here yet.
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As you have noted, in inflation adjusted CHF terms, we are not yet at a new all time high (unless that has changed in the last 2 weeks).
To be fair, I’m mostly indiferent to the question. I say do with it whatever is the cheapest to maintain for the forum.
The rally that have started from the 26.10.2023 bottom had a strong move yesterday, after running for four months. My benchmark was stalling for a week and I was starting to have an impression that hot air liquidity that had inflated it have moved to crypto. But it still looks like there is enough of it for both.
My benchmark, "MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI, had marked 1923.15 CHF in nominal terms, a level not seen since the end of 2021. It is only -1.3% from the previous ATH (1947.97 CHF, on 16.11.2021), +26.3% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, +20.3% from the 26.10.2023 bottom and +10.6% YTD.
Assuming the same CPI/LIK for Switzerland as in January (the new month has started, so, according to my methodology I would have to use the level for February), on inflation-adjusted basis it is -5.7% from the previous ATH, +24.5% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, and 10.4% YTD.
Will the latest stocks rally last for another month? Will we fall from the “normal” market state to the “correction” without reaching a new ATH this time? Stay tuned for an update in a few weeks!
PI.
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Swiss CPI/LIK had notched 0.65% higher in February and is now at all times high. You can reduce my inflation-adjusted results accordingly.
It is also interesting, well, concerning, actually, how the same results were presented either by BFS or by media. I have only seen headlines reporting that “inflation”, meaning the increase of prices over the last 12 months, went down. Yeah, the second derivative is negative, great! 
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Given the crappy returns from my Pillar 1e. I asked that the strategy be changed from maximum stocks (which yielded a laughable <3% annual return over the last decade plus) to a money market fund.
I’ll suffer the 1% returns until I get the funds out in a few years.
Not sure if someone already mentioned, but VT touched the ATH. We are so back 
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Of course when I decide to wait for a slight dip after my paycheck (20th February), markets went only up. Planned on buying 6k USD worth of UPRO at 61$ and now it’s at 67.3$ 
Note to myself: Don’t try to time the market, just buy as soon as the money is available.
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And inform us instantly. Thank you for your service.
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Buying triple leveraged near the top? Oh you have some balls 
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please wait until after 25th. my 1e only gets converted to MM fund later this month!
Note to others: Don’t forget, the market times him.
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If that doesn’t start The Crash, I don’t know what will!
Are we dipping? My phone is a sea of green today 
Not sure why, but I associated your “Are we dipping?” with Marley’s “Jamming” (singing in my head: “are we dipping?” instead of “we’re jamming”), so here you go …
Bob Marley & The Wailers - Jamming (Official Music Video) (youtube.com)
At least the weed symbol in their official video is green, so there’s that.
Lastly: if you are considering seeing the recent Bob Marley: One Love movie … don’t, IMO.
Just listen to his songs instead if you like Reggae.
Full disclosure: personally not a substance user, but proud owner of IIPR, an innovative REIT that leases cannabis green house facilities to those who can legally grow the weed in the US.
Full position, too.
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I’m still DCA’ing and unsure if I hope it goes up or down. Just a bit sad that I wasn’t more agressive. Should I start to be more agressive now? 
It depends how you would be feeling after a 50% to 80% crash.
It’s perfectly normal to feel disappointed with one’s allocation as the price of assets goes up or falls down considerably, an adequate allocation often falls somewhere inside the spectrum of fully profiting from gains and being fully protected from losses.
Hereby I officially declare the 2022-24 dip for finished!
Welcome to a new thread:
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No worries, a new one might come this year still. 
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There still around 9 months yet for the another dip to arrive Cortana to make a significant investment.
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Please don’t jinx it!
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