What's your (investment) strategy for 2023?

[kraphael]

@oslasho

disagree with ~90% of what you said, but that’s what makes a market and love your confidence so what’s the majority of your portfolio look like?

I am not saying that my kind of investing is fitting for everybody, i put a lot of time into finding new opportunities, i check every position daily and rebalance quite often.

I am a stockpicker and manage monitor over 70 positions, none bigger than 3%. I generally look at sectors where I think the future growth will be: electric power and uranium and gold miners, semi conductors, hightec materials, robotics, gene editing, AI, blockchain, defense and computer security. And yes I think that gold and bitcoin will perform well in the coming years as the world is dedollarizing.

[Giff]

@kraphael

young leadership beats old leadership.

Is that necessarily true?

[kraphael]

@oslasho

so your statement was more about broad market than usa, as wtec is 88% usa (and 38% aapl/msft), i guess.

you are right, wtec is mostly u.s. stocks but a segment i consider to generate more growth that than broad market.

@oslasho

i’m familiar with 80% of these tickers and like many of 'em. it’s tough to beat ‘the market’ long-term, i wish you luck.

I am not gonna hold any stocks too long and will cut them if they don’t perform well. My average time horizon is 1-3 years. Some like UBS are rather short term trades, I have no real conviction in that company. But thanks

[kraphael]

@Giff

Is that necessarily true?

I don’t have the impression that the US and Europe with their 80 years old political leaders have any real vision for the future except trying to conserve the past for as long as possible.
I think the same can be said for business leaders like Tim Cook: While he might be able to keep Apple in its high orbit, I doubt we will see any substantial innovation and growth we have seen in over the last decades.
I have seen this in my own company with a 78 years old partner who was becoming more and more of a problem the older he got, because he couldn’t connect to today’s way of doing business anymore.
High ROI will be found elsewhere

[kraphael]

@oslasho

i guess you have the ‘pro trader taxation’ subject on the radar.

Yeah my accountant is warning me all the time not to trade too often and not too use to much margin

[kraphael]

@oslasho

yep, india is very tempting to me, still pondering the best way to approach it.

Another graph I just found in respect of where future economic growth might be: India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia seem to be doing just fine

[Cortana]

There is a negative correlation between high GDP growth and stock market returns.

The Stock Market vs. The Economy

[kraphael]

yep, emerging markets are delivering very disappointing returns over the last decade. That narrative might shift soon like 2002 - 2007

[kraphael]

@oslasho

heavy ‘blackboxes’, among others, are africa (huge pop. growth and its implications, e.g. is europe gonna be able to take advantage of its geographic proximity) and ai (some existential questions).

I also made some investments in Russia and Ukraine a few years back based on a long term commodity bullishness, wasn’t too clever in hindsight.
I still own some russian Sberbank shares. You want them? I make a good price

[user137]

Offtopic and pro family tip: (and I hope I can congratulate in the meantime!): a 3 month old baby is suuuper small to be given to childcare. Maybe reconsider for her to stay home at least 6 or even 12 months, depending how she feels around the 3, 6, 9, 12 months mark.

[San_Francisco]

@kraphael

I still own some russian Sberbank shares. You want them? I make a good price

Where are you holding them?

[Zerte2]

My answer to the topic’s title: opportunistic. It all depends on the Fed. Situation is very dynamic. Right now real US rates are close to zero. Nominal rates went from almost zero to almost 5%. How long can they hold? That’s a big question mark.

[kraphael]

@San_Francisco

Where are you holding them?

It’s a joke, there are registred in my name, marked down to 10% of their worth but I can’t sell or transfer them. They are worthless at this point.

[Cortana]

It’s actually a combination of 3 portfolios (ETFs, 2nd pillar and 3rd pillar). So outside of my retirement accounts I just use VTI as an ETF, 2nd pillar (ValuePension) is 2/3 World 1/3 EM and 3rd pillar is 40% CH, 50% World, 10% EM. In total I got this allocation:

[Idonthaveamustache]

Am I dumb for keeping everything in SCHD/JEPI?
Companies in SCHD (pfizer, cisco, merck, coca cola …) get their revenue from all over the world and not just the US. So even if the dollar wont be the world currency (which might take 20-30 years to happen), these companies will still generate revenue.

[FunnyDjo]

What do you do with this revenu for now ?
With Accumulating etf you won’t need to reinvest dividends when you are in the accumulation phase.

[Idonthaveamustache]

accumulating etfs are more expensive. I keep like 10% only in JEPI. I expect that there will not be a 10+ year bull run with 14% average return a year so SCHD has the best composition for me.
Also is there an accumulating version of SCHD? I have not found anything that replicates the success of SCHD (they even increased dividends during covid).

[San_Francisco]

@Idonthaveamustache

accumulating etfs are more expensive

Reinvesting distributed dividends on the other hand is usually not free.

@Idonthaveamustache

Also is there an accumulating version of SCHD?

Accumulating ETFs aren’t a thing in the U.S., so most certainly no.

[Idonthaveamustache]

yes in the US accumulating ETFs are not allowed. So the right question would be: Is there any accumulating dividend focused ETF that beats SCHD regarding total returns? for time frame lets take 5 or 10 years. I havent found any such etfs.

[San_Francisco]

@Idonthaveamustache

Am I dumb for keeping everything in SCHD/JEPI?

No one would call you dumb (especially since you touched upon your reasons for picking a fund with said constituents).

But as Schwab are promoting that fund as “offering potential tax-efficiency”, you should be aware that the contrary is true for you as a Swiss-based investor.

The fund’s high dividend yield is potentially tax-inefficient for you, since you will get taxed on distributions. If, on the other hand, the constituent companies were paying lower dividends and reinvest more their earnings themselves, thereby growing their business, that would result in capital gains in their stock. Which are usually tax-free for Swiss individual investors.

In other words, a fund of low-dividend paying companies would be more tax-efficient. If the constituent companies are of similar profitability (which can’t be deduced from looking at dividend yields, since most non-distributing companies are probably unprofitable).