What would happen if Credit Suisse goes bust?

Hi, I just have one question…

Why people keep buying/selling CS if the shares are going to be transfered to UBS stocks in a 1:22.48 ratio? What is the interest on buying CS stocks higher than 0.76chf?

Is there something that I am missing?

Taxation (realising losses), delivering shares that you previously agreed and are obligated to, other technical reasons.

Also, there is a small chance (and possibly speculation) that UBS will not take them over at their current price, as with many takeovers - though in this particular case it seems unlikely, as the political will to make it happen is so strong.

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Also, some people are probably just trading on technical catalysts or seeing the low price and thinking it’s a buying opportunity. Not everybody cares to gather information before investing and that 1:22.48 ratio hasn’t been made that obviously public that everybody wanting to trade CS shares would have had it thrown into their face.

People were buying Hertz stock in 2020, after it had filed for bankruptcy. Amazingly enough, that one turned out well: the company was bought for $8 a share, managed its reorganization and is now listed again:

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On a similar note, LATAM Airlines issued ADRs in the U.S. a long time ago. What are ADRs? Well, basically ADRs are just certificates or „wrappers“ around the original underlying foreign stock. Created as a mere legal technicality to satisfy local requirements for the U.S. market. But in essence the same stock, earning the same dividends as the one that’s traded on the Bolsa de Santiago in Chile.

In this case at a 1-to-1 ratio:
One American ADR representing one share in Chile.

And both of them have been trading:

The ADR at 0.41 USD in the US OTC market
And the Chilean stock at 6.33 CLP in Santiago.

:point_right: At that point, one may google the exchange rate between the Peso and the Dollar themselves.


I don’t know what his sources are but Patrick Boyle has a very comprehensive video about what actually happened these last few days:

I’ve found it very enlightening.

Edit: To note, it provides an inkling as to why CS and UBS AT1 bonds may have been structured the way they were, and not like any other AT1 bonds elsewhere on the planet: they were used as part of the total compensation of senior management and were meant to play an incitative role in avoiding failure as they would be written off if that happened and could be written off by regulators when things got dire (providing regulators with an instant way to target senior management’s compensation in case of severe failure).


The Plain Bagel also has a video on the topic. His video are generally very good and informative.


Who’s up for a >100% gain overnight? :rofl:


probably trading credit, not cash? Can you find out?

I guess this is up to 50 shares or something

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Up to 700 shares i.e. CHF 700, surprisingly.
Weird marketing, but ja, we’re talking about it, so it isn’t bad marketing :wink:


The Welcome Gift is granted in the form of cash on the trading account opened by the Recipient.

not bad!

Hey guys, so, did anybody try it? Whats the catch, that I cant figure out? Could you open an account, transfer 700 shares form IB, get the bonus, withdraw it and just transfer the shares back after a while? Kinda sketchy, but a >100% return worth exploring it. On the other hand it seems too good to be true… As I see it, one has the in- and outcoming share transfer fees between the brokers, the withdrawal fee and evetually 2x20 CHF custody fees, assuming you keep the account in swissquote active for less than half a year. I cant find anywhere any small print, please someone bring me back to reality…

The Recipient must deposit or transfer cash and/or securities (including Credit Suisse shares with
ISIN CH0012138530) to their trading account in a minimum amount of CHF 10’000 by 30.06.2023
at the latest. The value of securities transferred is determined by the Bank

So you need to transfer at least CHF 10,000 worth of assets. And I think if you transfer 700 shares of CSGN and 9300 CHF in cash, wait for a month, and transfer out again. It should be positive. As you said, you would have to pay one time the custody fee and two times the transfer fee. The receiver broker might reimburse you the transfer fee with cash or trading credit. You would need to find out.

Didn’t somebody say that IB doesn’t have outcoming transfer fees?

IB allows one cash withdrawal per calendar month for free, subsequent cash withdrawals cost, e.g., 11 CHF or 8 EUR.

For securities, IB will process incoming transfers for free but will charge any outgoing transfers. There I am a bit lost in their fee model… not sure exactly what you would have to pay for transferring your CS shares to SQ.

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Some people have tried and apparently it was free for outgoing transfers?

i have tried. From IBKR to post finance, Both side free.


Well that developed quite rapidly, no?


Well, it looks like the things were not as bad as they seemed and market participants had overreacted as usual. Still it didn’t make buying CS stocks during that problematic time a winning move :laughing:.