What is your investment strategy for 2025?

Investing / Portfolios
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@Dr.PI we may need a “what’s your investment strategy [2025]” thread? Or this thread can do given despite the sentiment being 96% of new contributions going to stocks, we all seem to have similar thoughts.

Personally I’ve been building cash liquidity, after pushing hard as hell in 2024 I am easing the gas in 2025 and looking into alternative assets, chiefly the Managed Futures. Also eyeing leveraged ETFs though, recently backtested TQQQ and saw madness: 10k invested in 2010 would grow to 2mn by 2021, crash down to 400k in 2022 and back up again above 2mn in 2024. I have no clue how this crash can feel…

I think I’ll put a small bet (2-3000) in TQQQ at some point (you all know what point I mean) next year and just let it ride.

Edit for strategy:

  • Not buying anything until 12 months of no buying have elapsed (June 2025)
  • Save the same amount I’d be using for buying as cash

After June 2025 observe the situation:

If there’s a crash: plug into 3A, bet on something leveraged (TQQQ), add the rest into VWRL
If there hasn’t been a crash: plug 10% of current portfolio value in KMLM, continue saving cash

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A good starting point :slight_smile:

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Some analyst forecasts from Ramin Nakisa’s great videos:

2024 (they don’t know what they’re saying, clearly):

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2025 (what really happened, and more hmmm forecasts):

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Edit: not planning to act on any of the above, as I didn’t previously either.

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I think - just because someone is wrong doesn’t mean they don’t know what they are saying

Of course for people it’s easy way to brush off the forecast because they(we) want high returns year on year.

But I wouldn’t just dismiss these numbers. There are lot of researchers trying to come up with these estimates and I am sure they know what they are talking about. And let’s remember these are in CHF terms so they are even lower than nominal USD terms.

Of course if positive sentiment continue then market will continue to expand multiples. But it doesn’t mean at some point it would not be too much to handle

P.S -: I like Ramin’s videos but he is mainly quoting research from different places. He doesn’t have his own estimates so it’s not fair to dismiss numbers that others publish

Btw, for me nothing really changes. My strategy would continue to be 60-65% equities and rest whatever I could come up with (fixed income , cash , RE funds etc)

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For 2024 I stated an intention to “develop” a global stocks market benchmark calculated in CHF with an adjustment for inflation in Switzerland. I think I have accomplished this goal.

Next, I want to dive deeper into what I would call “the dark side of investment”: psychological and behavioral aspects that affect our investment decisions and results. I am collecting some materials about it.

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2024 wildly surpassed my expectations (and not only mine, I guess)

I started with CHF 0.97M in equities and will end the year with appr. CHF 1.2M (net investment during the year: just 4.3K).

Before describing my investment strategy for 2025, let’s check if I followed my strategy for 2024:

No selling, just buying!

Basically yes. Sold some VHVE and VDEM and increased CHSPI and SMMCHA to keep my home bias at around 25%. As of today, my ETF portfolio at IBKR consists of 4000 VWRD, 2000 VDEM, 1000 VHVE, 790 CHSPI and 250 SMMCHA.

Invest 75% of free cash flow in ETFs at the beginning of each quarter, save up the remaining 25% to increase liquidity.

More or less. I have my cash stack where I want it to be. Stopped investing more into stocks in summer, since I have reached my goal of 45% of Net Worth. Just reinvesting dividends now.

Keep my two Swiss ETFs at around 25% of equity portfolio (2/3 CHSPI and 1/3 SMMCHA). The other 75% are mainly VHVE and (a bit of) VDEM

Swiss ETFs are at 24.3% of the equity part of my portfolio (including ETF’s, options depot and pillar 3A)

Continue to trade options (doing the “wheel”) with a CHF 40,000 deposit.

Yes, but the wheel got stuck in the mud around end of October… more on this misfortune in my yearly update coming soon to My Option Odyssey: Personal Experiences, Numbers, and the Path Forward after Year One

So, and here is my strategy for 2025

  • Keep the equity share above 45% of Net Worth.
  • Not sure yet what to do if stocks keep climbing. Sell some ETF or let it climb?
  • Stop injecting fresh money into IBKR (all dividends shall be used to buy CHSPI).
  • Start investing (if drop below 45%) at DEGIRO, probably all into ACWI.
  • Wait for the assigned stocks in the options depot to recover, then decide whether to continue ‘wheeling’ or to put everything into ACWI.
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That’s actually my worry… earnings might not catch up. So at some point the valuations will just be excessive.

But except US, i think its actually quite cheap atm.

USA i would expect faster earnings growth, maybe a bit lower equity returns. But i dont see a huge crash happening with the FED standing on the sideline.

If a crash happens probably its coming from the government debt side. And will be fixed with more debt… so i stay in real assets as much as i can.

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Let’s see what happens.
I think even in US as demonstrated by chart showed by @Your_Full_Name few days back, the outperformance is driven by few stocks. Rest seem reasonably priced.

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May I ask what you are doing with this cash? Is all used to buy the options?

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Monthly adding shares of FWRA in IBKR

Monthly accumulating BTC (5% of overall portfolio)

Rinse and repeat

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2024 wrapping up:

Done. 2 months without a salary and some stress relief spending have put a dent in that but the general purpose has been reached.

Failed. I’m not quite there yet. I should get there early 2025, let’s say by March.

Failed. I haven’t reached there yet.

So, life happened. The renovations have been pushed back one year (turns out handling the stress from the shenanigans at work and preparing the demand for the building permit by myself was a bit too much. I’ve taken an architect late last year and she’s great so things should move forward now). The plan is good, though, and I’ll keep executing on it in 2025:

  1. Keep saving and putting cash on the side.

  2. When the budget for the renovations is ready, keep whatever is required to finance that in cash. Keep an additional 10k liquidity fund in a savings account.

  3. Invest the next 90k into a MSCI World ex US UCITS index fund. Should be EXUS if no new contender arises until then.

  4. Chances are I’ll get to invest some money in 3a after the renovations are done. That would go into a junk bonds fund through VIAC.

This should put me well into 2027.

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2025 plan is to plow all income above 250k into pillar 2a, get the 38 pct tax savings that generates and thereby lower risk exposure to a pumped equity market

Cant get much more simple than that

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No. This is just the regular emergency fund and liquidity reserve. The options depot is managed separately.

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I will look to be more defensive in 2025. I feel we are in late in the cycle and will be more concerned about return of capital than return on capital. The problem is that you give up a lot of upside in the late cycle if you reduce stock exposure.

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Ah ok. So far I have only considered an emergency fund. As for liquidity reserve I am considering getting a margin loan if necessary. What’s your difference between emergency fund and liquidity reserve?

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Here will be my investment strategy:

  • Monthly investment in VT and/or SLICHA (85% / 15%)
  • Monthly investment in VIAC (World + SPI; 85% / 15%) - 4 accounts
  • Monthly investment in Finpension (World Quality + SPI; 85% / 15%) - 1 account
  • Monthly investment in BTC (5-10% overall portfolio)

Now that I have 5x 3a account, I will split the annual contribution in 12 monthly contribution, one per account (not sure if it’s the best strategy, but it works perfectly for my girlfriend in 2024).

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I’ll stack more sats.

(For 2025, I reduced contribution to BVG in favor of 3a, coz VIAC’s IBIT. Still 3a will not max out… maybe at 60%)

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You mean 60 individual transfers in one year? I just opened the fifth and final 3a account with VIAC and will transfer CHF 7,258 to this account on 3 January.

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Yes :slight_smile: (quite a bit, but the purpose is to have the same amount, well at least it will not because I opened a new account each year during the past 5 years).

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It would be much easier to just make 1 payment per month. Just pay the contribution to the smallest account and it should even out over time.

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