Hello everybody,
Just wanted to share this long-term study by UBS that might interest mustachian investors who have a long investment horizon. Unfortunately, only the summary is available to the public, but it’s already quite interesting.
It talks about patience, diversification, volatility, inflation, asset classes, and factor returns over long periods. I would urge any long-term investor to read this.
Let me finish with a quote from the conclusion:
Yet while many people consider the long term to be
ten or 20 years, the Yearbook demonstrates that much
longer periods than 20 years are needed to under-
stand trends in risk and return from stocks and bonds,
because markets are so volatile and variable over very
long periods.
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10 years is the minimum to be any sort of meaningful really, 20 years is feasible for FIRE folks, 30 begins to be the top realistic threshold for non-FIRE folks OR the children of people who’re switched on about investing. Assuming studies take 3-5 years (mine took ~9 years due to PhD), and first jobs don’t really pay much, and the need to live and not just save, a realistic timeframe for starting more serious investing for the average person is when they turn ~30.
Personally at 42 I only really learnt anything about investing at ~37, I will make sure my kids do learn by their 18th birthdays, though.
A lot of interesting information here, even in the summary doc. I’m wondering if a) momentum (sentiment) comes out as the key factor premium, and b) if value lost it lustre after it became better recognised (page 12 here, as I didn’t request the permission of the authors 
).
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