Hello, is anybody USD exposed and thinking that could be risky? If you don’t consider it risky, would you explain why? Instead If so, would you share eventual strategies (for cash and/or USD ETFs)?
Thanks
It’s very unlikely to matter beyond those couple of days of potential high volatility (which has a bit of risk of breaking some backend stuff unintentionally). So yes I’m ignoring it since I care about long term
For fixed income and cash assets: I want my assets to be in the currency I intend to spend, so I personally wouldn’t keep them in USD (because I spend CHF and will for the forseeable future). If I were spending USD, I would keep the assets needed to cover my short term needs in something that I expect to stay liquid (short term treasuries may temporarily not be). I may want to hedge the assets designated for my long term needs out of pure treasuries if I were there and use globally diversified bonds (both government and investment grade corporate ones) or other assets like gold or CHF (which is a reserve currency).
For stocks, they represent part ownership of companies, so I wouldn’t stress over which currency they are denominated in: the value of the company is not dependent on it.
Both US and non-US companies may generate revenue and have expenses in USD, and/or be exposed to people whose buying capacity would be affected in case of a US debt crisis, so I would expect a temporary drop in value of my stocks (the few companies with no exposure to the USD at all could be contaminated by a global crisis), which could result in bankruptcy for some companies. I can’t evaluate which companies would be most affected, as I guess many of them just ran on the idea that US treasuries don’t have a credit risk and many may not have adjusted that view yet so I’m staying broadly diversified.
I can’t evaluate the impact a US debt crisis would have on the long run but I stay confident globally diversified stocks will at least maintain their value at a 30 years time horizon, so I don’t see a reason to change my long term strategy in that regard.
Other types of assets I may consider are gold, real estate in safe and politically stable places and trustworthy relationships (ideally also in different countries). I don’t have enough assets to protect to warrant doing that, so I don’t.