Trump Tariff causing stocks to nose dive => large cap stock tips?

This could become an opportunity to buy some stocks at a nice discount.

My main preference is on European stocks (lower valuation, FX, etc.) but especially in tech there might be some deals (albeit not yet true bargains) in the US as well.

Which companies are you targeting to take a bit if the sell off continues?

I’d love to get Microsoft but not at these levels (yet).

VRSN, but it hasn’t fallen at all. typical.

I have my eye on energy, but want to get a better price still.

Never time the market, what is important is time is the market. However I think that there will be some buying opportunities. In fact since 16 month the US market was over rated to my humble opinion.
For TSLA I would wait a bit more before taking long position. :slight_smile:

No discount, but probably more safe (from my dividend portfolio): GIS, JNJ, T, MO, KMB, LMT

There’ll be no TSLA soon enough. That goose is cooked.

I’m eyeing MSFT as a forever stock, to join BRK, for some months now but at lower valuation.

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I’ve been considering shorting Tesla - at least, buying put options - for a few weeks now.

They’re losing the Asian market to Chinese brands, they’re losing the European market to Chinese/European brands as the Tesla boycott is snowballing, and they’ve alienated the one half of the US market which would buy EV’s.

Need to do a bit more homework though about their non-car business.

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No one I know wants to buy Tesla. Whatever Elon musk do , it’s tough to get out of this toxic situation

Car still remains a status symbol and specially in Asia. Buying Tesla is definitely not a status thing anymore. Person who is associated with another person who is causing huge damage to your country‘s economy and the person (Musk) is trying to bully your politics is not someone you want to be associated with

But shorting Tsla might be dangerous because who knows some billionaires in US team up to punish the short sellers

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Look at insurers. UNH went up quite a bit. Generally STOXXX 600 Insurance hasn’t nose dived.

Got it, but I’m actually looking for opportunities where the share price HAS dropped.

TMO is on my list. Now down 30% from 2024 highs.

Great question.

Especially as it seems indifferent to “how do you feel about the market and this macro thesis versus that macro thesis and how does it affect your trading”. Or at least that’s what I interpreted.

I’ll go through my stock picking portfolio* as I would have done so anyway tomorrow, albeit at however long it’ll take me here to document my thinking versus my usual about 15-20 minutes total for all positions.
I’ll look at the positions through my very own lens: can this company reliably pay and ideally grow dividends (and earnings!) for me?
I won’t skip positions I otherwise would skip because they’re “full” (for the purpose of income risk management in my portfolio) for the (potential) benefit of readers.

Further filters:

  • mostly large caps (>$10 billion)
  • fairly or undervalued (or at best slightly overvalued but interesting)

Macro comments as seasoning (ideally ignored by everyone) as I see fit.

I’ll add FASTgraphs, drawing the line from the current market price to the lower of the fair value line or the normal** value line.

Oh, and I’ll opine on my first bunch of positions from A to C before taking your pulse whether this is in any way useful before proceeding to waste your (or my) time with positions D and beyond.


The Laundry List – A to C

(Alphabetical Order)

ADM


Not the fastest growing company, but has been paying a reliable (since 2012) and growing dividend.
Earnings Yield* of >10%.
Earnings revisions by analysts have been coming down over the past 6 months by about 25%.
Analyst scorecard: company has been missing earnings about half the time. Kinda bad.
Other considerations: company had an accounting scandal about a year ago (CFO had to leave the company).
Macro considerations: I dunno. Would have to do further research, but I guess they’re impacted by threatened tariffs for input to the products they sell? Who knows.
Conclusion: Keep on watchlist, don’t yet promote to buying candidate.

AMGEN


Steadily growing company, averaging 10% over the past 20 years, a little slower recently.
Earnings Yield* of 6.81%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been steady over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has been meeting or exceeding earnings expectations. Great.
Other considerations: Long term debt to capital is high, earnings growth going forward is slow. Dividend growth was great and still looks acceptable.
Macro considerations: I dunno. Orang Utan Man might have a fit. Or not. Who knows.
Conclusion: Keep on watchlist, don’t yet promote to buying candidate.
Further Remarks: sold recently a small tranche when it looked overvalued.

ARE


Slowly growing company.
AFFO*** Yield of 9.22%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been steady over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has been meeting or exceeding earnings ecpectations. Great.
Other considerations: Long term debt to capital is high, earnings growth going forward is slow. Dividend growth was great and still looks acceptable.
Macro considerations: n/a
Conclusion: Potential buy, given the dividend yield and the steady outlook. Full position in my portfolio, though.

BBY


Mostly slowly growing company.
Earnings* Yield of 10.52%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been going down slowly over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has beat or met earnings most of the time. Great.
Other considerations: Long term debt to capital is 50% (a bit high). Dividend growth was slow’ish.
Macro considerations: I’m guessing they import a lot from countries that are supposedly hit by high tariffs. Bad if the tariffs stay, great if the tariffs drop. Who knows.
Conclusion: Keep on watchlist, don’t yet promote to buying candidate.

BK


Fast growing company.
Earnings* Yield of 8.3%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been going up over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has met or beat earnings most of the time. Great.
Other considerations: Little term debt to capital, A rated by S&P.
Macro considerations: Bank. Who knows.
Conclusion: Buy if the dividend yield is acceptable.

BNS


Nicely growing company (going forward).
Earnings* Yield of 10%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been steady over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has met or beat earnings 2/3 of the time. Fine.
Other considerations: Very little long term debt to capital, A+ rated by S&P.
Macro considerations: Bank. Who knows.
Conclusion: Buy.
Remark: This company is on my DRIP list and I’ve kept buying.

BTI


Nicely growing company (going forward).
Earnings* Yield of 11.4%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been slightly shrinking over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has met or beat earnings 3/4 of the time. Fine.
Other considerations: Acceptable 38% long term debt to capital.
Macro considerations: Tobacco. Lindy.
Conclusion: Buy.
Remark: I have a full position and yet I want to keep buying.

CI


Rather fast growing company.
Earnings* Yield of 8.7%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been slightly shrinking over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has met or beat earnings most of the time. Great.
Other considerations: Acceptable 40% long term debt to capital, especially given their A- S&P credit rating.
Macro considerations: Well, boomers will need health care services.
Conclusion: Buy if you can accept the low dividend yield.

CM


Normal rate growing company.
Earnings* Yield of 9.5%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been slightly growing over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has met or beat earnings 3/4 of the time. Fine.
Other considerations: Great 24% long term debt to capital, especially given their A+ S&P credit rating.
Macro considerations: Bank. Who knows.
Conclusion: Buy.

CMCSA


Relatively fast rate growing company.
Earnings* Yield of 13%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been mostly steady over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has met or beat earnings 90% of the time. Awesome.
Other considerations: About 50% long term debt to capital, meh.
Macro considerations: N/A.
Conclusion: Strong Buy.

CMI


Fast growing company.
Earnings* Yield of 7.8%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been mostly steady over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has met or beat earnings 3/4 of the time. Fine.
Other considerations: About 30% long term debt to capital. Nice. Also, A S&P credit rating.
Macro considerations: Heavy machinery. Trump this, trump that, who knows.
Conclusion: Buy on further drops.

CVS


Fast growing company.
Earnings* Yield of 8.7%
Earnings revisions by analysts have been mostly downward over the past 6 months.
Analyst scorecard: company has met or beat earnings 80% of the time. Great.
Other considerations: About 50% long term debt to capital. Meh.
Macro considerations: Health Care Services. Trump this, trump that, who knows.
Conclusion: Buy on further drops if you don’t have a full position (like me).$


Glossary:

* Earnings Yield: If you owned the entire company outright, you would get the Earnings Yield as profit of what you paid for the company.

** Normal Value: The P/E line the company has traded at historically in the selected time frame of the FASTgraph depicted.

*** AFFO: Adjusted Funds From Operations, a metric used mostly (exlusively?) with REITs**** to reflect the peculiarities of them making profits due to the legal contraints for these (mostly) REIT companies.

**** REIT: Real Estate Investment Trust. Simple: owns and profits from real estate. Comes with a bunch of accounting and payout standards and obligations for the company. See e.g. REIT: What It Is and How to Invest


* See this post if you're interested: https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/any-stockpickers-out-there/8203/28?u=your_full_name
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I would look into their energy business. Lots of countries are encouraging renewables which makes the grid unstable. You can arbitrage this with storing the energy, e.g. buy power when the price is zero or negative and sell when the price is high (energy charts).

Tesla is really growing in that segment:

In 2024, we deployed 31.4 GWh of energy storage products. We are focused on ramping the production and increasing the market penetration of our energy storage products.

Their revenue is small in comparison, although really growing. But I also don’t know how sustainable that is in the long run…

About cars I think they will continue to lose, even if remove Musk from the equation. The Chinese are making really good EVs now (bad for Tesla China) and IF they somehow manage to come to Europe without tariffs, then it’s likely over, because they are much cheaper and offer more. Whether that materializes is another story, because charging an EV in public currently is more expensive than gasoline lol.

ADM

It’s in my portfolio, probably difficult times right now and don’t want to add more yet.

ARE

In portfolio and added during drops. Full position now.

BNS

It was in portfolio and transferred to VDY ETF instead.

BTI

This is my biggest position. I have full position here but like you also tempted to buy more.

CI

In portfolio. I kinda forgot about it and isn’t yet a full position.

CMCSA

In portfolio. I hate this company but still have it as the value seems almost too good to be true.

CVS

Sold this a while ago.

Tech stocks

I think some of the tech stocks starts to look attractive even if they continue to be dragged down by index selling. (I bought GOOG, AMD).

Integrated oil

Integrated oil also starts to look more attractive (but I want to buy during recession)

Cash crunch

But what am I going to sell to fund purchases? Most of my T-bills were already sold to fund Pillar 2 purchases. And the rest was quickly used up when my buy orders hit.

I’m reluctant to sell CAOS or Gold, but maybe I should re-balance a little?

A lot of US stocks listed above. I’m focused more on Australian (lived there for a while and my wife is from there so we travel there often), UK (where I’m from) and European stocks in general.

Am actually surprised so many US stocks were mentioned. Even after the sell off the valuations are often still high. Then again, if you’re American and are living Switzerland but ultimately intend to return to the US then I get it.

My case is different - future is in Europe (and to a lesser extend down under). So my focus is on ‘local’ stocks (primarily) as I don’t want the FX exposure to get too high.

With European stocks tumbling there’s surely also bargainst to be found here now.

I own British American Tobacco and will be buying more similar high yielding stocks (e.g. Vodafone) by using the dividends coming my way soon.

*in

I’ll throw one out there: Signify. Lighting company.

  • High dividend
  • Low PE (much lower than it’s main US competitor)
  • Plus share buy backs
  • Decent balance sheet
  • Everybody needs lighting!