Trade deficit & future investment risks

While current US administration is trying to solve the trade deficit problem in a very bizarre way, the problem of trade deficit is very real. In Feb 2025, US generated 122 B of trade deficit (includes Goods & services).

To put this in practical terms, the over consumption in US is driving them to sell a piece of their assets (via mortage, land, stocks or debts) every month to foreigners. This cannot continue forever because citizens wouldn’t allow themselves to be owned by foreigners.

We know this cannot continue forever. It’s a ticking time bomb which would either be solved by moving into trade surplus domain or by other means (more sinister) like not paying debts or nationalising foreign asset ownership.

A collaborative approach would have been nice but US president chose a more combative approach. It might not work but it also means the problem still remains

What’s the view of people on the forum about this and what risk does it pose for our investments and how can we protect ourselves?

Index of /~cas7/gifs

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I no longer hold US government debt in case they unilaterally extend the maturity. Short end, I use BOXX. long end, I hold corporate debt instead.

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Why can‘t this be continued forever?

It has long been talked about, and is not some new discovery.

An old Forbes article from 2016 I found on that: America Can Run Trade Deficits Forever

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% of NIIP (net international investment position) vs Total US assets has increased from <10% (end of 2014) to 16% by end of 2024. Use to be less than 5% at beginning of century.

So I am not sure if that 2016 article is completely true. It could be that budget deficit is also adding to the problem.

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I was actually also considering what steps US would need to take to actually get out of this. And what does it mean for rest of countries - good or bad?