Only 509,999 USD, to be more precise
YMMD
Only 509,999 USD, to be more precise
YMMD
My furniture is not worth $7000, itās either from Ikea, or collected for free. Sorry to ruin your comparison, I guess in that case this GRCU company is legit.
Not since long tho, also their CFO left right around listing, doesnāt that raise any red flags?
It does raise Red flags for those who dont know about company and history. CFO and CEO didnāt see eye to eye about direction. CFO wanted his millions now (by selling Iron Creek, which I agree with), CFO has longer term vision with price stock increase.
I was asked to share some picks, everyone should do their own DD, no one should buy unless they are comfortable doing so and definitely not because a stranger like myself posted some stock picks on a forum.
Thank you @Beeapanda for sharing.
The EV producers are interesting, I picked 2 sometime ago!
Also the proterra and aemetis look interesting. low carbon fuel / biofuel will become big for aviation. Producers have already made planes lighters and flight companies increased flight efficiencies, next steps are increase further flight efficiencies (different routes or more descending so using less fuel but itās impractical on a large scale) or using fuel that has a lower eco footprint. I see lot of them moving there. Good stuff! Will investigate more
While that may hold true, it isnāt necessarily a great investment.
Looking at Aemetis, theyāve virtually never been profitable over the last 15 years - or ever (they registered a tiny profit only once or twice, while otherwise having much bigger losses every year over that period).
You either successfully predict a sea change in how aviation fuels are produced/sourced (and, more importantly, the timing with which that is going to occur) and how/why it will lead to a business breakthrough for this company in particular. Then youād likely have a multi-bagger at hand.
Otherwise, it remains mostly a play on investor sentiment and āhypeā for biofuels.
Biofuels have been an old, common and recurring trope for penny stock P&Ds. Not saying that this particular company is one (they seem to have been in business for too long). But considering that the company isnāt profitable, seems to lack a clear path to profitability and will be competing with many conventional fuel producers, it surely is the latter (a gamble on sentiment) for me. This can lose as easily 80% or 90% of its stock price - thereby returning to its pre-2020 stock prices - as it can triple. The business isnāt fundamentally much better than 2019, is it?
Here are some reasons why this might change (long term hold for sure):
Didnāt expect this! One analyst downgraded the stock to sell, others no response yet.
Curious to know your thinking
Hmmmm, is it really the best time to acquire/merge with current oil prices? OTOH, with regards to current stock valuation it might be good timing.
For those still invested in CDEV, here are some notes below. The team and I are still very much bullish in CDEV, we actually see an increase in potential value, at least $15 but maybe more. Action last week is typical of these types of mergers in this sector (see Devon Energy and WPX Energy last year), sell the news.
Merger notes :
1)Operational:
Wells payout < 6 month
Will save 6 days per well on Colgateās existing Spud time
Plan is 140 wells annual
CDEV to lower operating costs leveraging Colgateās efficiencies
Colgate produces 62,000 bpd
Colgate is ~50% oil/gas prod
2)Debt:
$500 million in total credit line balance
Still no bond maturities until 2026
1.0x leverage ratio is long term status quo
3)Returns:
+10% FCF growth over next 2.5 years
quarterly dividend is among highest in industry
$350 million share repurchase program has room for growth
Variable dividend plan under works.
CDEV is no longer a speculative pure play Permian company, itās got big things going for it now as it looks to become the largest Pure Play Permian O&G
Quarterly dividends
Two years of Buybacks
Looking at additional variable dividends
$1,000,000,000+ in FCF next year and thatās not discretionary CFs either, so thatās strong econometrics
FCF expected to grow by 10% annually in the next 2.5 years.
So it will get much more interest now from more institutional/pensions
Other considerations:
CDEV will become harder to day trade. So weāll see less daily flippers going forward
No issues paying some private folks in Colgate $500+ million. This deal was NOT dilutive to CDEV shareholders, the NPV of DFCF far exceeds what weāre paying
Thank you! I was also reading that Colgate went this way to avoid a formal IPO given the tough market environment.
Through merging with CDEV is a like a SPAC. So probably Colgate paid a little premium for CDEV so this is why itās not diluting.
Good stuff
How did this develop - with the merger and going āprivateā?
Could you stay invested or they had to buy you out?
Iāve still got my 165k shares of CDEV now under ticker PR. Waiting for $18+ in 2023
Thumbs up for managing withstand the volatility
ELBM, GRNBF and SXOOF didnāt go so well, did they?
TouchƩ, OTC sucks since early 2022
I got out of GRNBF, still holding 500K SXOOF and 15K ELBM, long term hold they will do great, mark my words. Still holding 165K Permian Resources (CDEV before merger). Dividend alone this year will cover initial investment , Iāll sell around $18-20 next year or sooner if we get there this year. Canāt win them all, but long term, SXOOF and ELBM will do great, if you following sector and these companies you would know. Letās revisit next year.
I mean everyone reads left and right that Lithium mining etc. Doesnāt cover EV demand but Iām still a bit surprised by the 75% dropsā¦
Iām downs about 35-40% after averaging down. Mining industry for smaller players like SXOOF and ELMB is difficult, financing especially, they have to prove beyond doubt before they start flying or are bought out by majors. ELMB should get to $10 within next 1-2 years. SXOOF should get to $2 before being bought or RS+uplisting to Nasdaq. Hereās nice article on Battery Metal Supply & Recycling needs, both of these companies are well positioned! The Inevitable Battery Metal Supply Squeeze Could Be Closer Than We Thought | OilPrice.com
Still believing in ELBM?
Long term yes, I averaged down.