Statistics, black magic and financial mathematics

Yeah, this is “continuous” in this context.

No, this statement indicates that you are always “playing with the whole bankroll”. Has nothing to do with the length of the time step.

The modern portfolio theory assumes log-normal distribution of returns. This is what I was trying to acquire.

Nice idea, because nominal stock returns can be misleading, especially in your decumulation/retirement phase. Stock market gaining 2% doesn’t mean you got 2% more spending power if inflation’s risen by 2%.

Someone should inform cash/bond investors too who get excited about their nominal interest rates

Let’s have a bit more fun!

To classify the state of the stock market, as quantified by a specific index, I am going to consider these five regimes:

  • Normal State: the market index is less than 5% below its all-time high (ATH).
  • Mild Correction: the market index is between 5% and 10% below the ATH.
  • Correction: the market index is between 10% and 15% below the ATH.
  • Deep Correction: the market index is between 15% and 20% below the ATH.
  • Bear Market: The market is in a ‘Bear Market’ regime when the index drops more than 20% from the ATH.

These regimes can be utilized, for example, to define different portfolio consumption rates, adapting them to the current market conditions.

And I hope I won’t need to define a ‘Deep Bear Market’ any time soon.

From here:

I’d love a discussion between him and RR folks on this topic. :smiley:

You mean him and Ben? :wink:

Yeah, with Benoit, but also with some of their guests vouching for SCV.

There are some podcasts linked in the original post, so maybe it has happened already.