So I bought silver in early 2025. Right now I’m about +170%.
Does someone know what’s the deal about this particular chemical element? The action looks weird, even compared to other precious metals.
Bit worried it might have something to do with killing people somehow.
People are expecting a werewolf apocalypse and stockpiling on silver.
Or the price of gold is pretty high and they’ve been searching for another alternative as the geopolitical situation is shifting. Also, it is apparently needed for the datacenters craze. Or another explanation, really.
Why would it specifically have to do with killing people?
Technically, it does: High Demand for Silver amid Rapidly Growing Defense Spending | GOLDINVEST
My concern is that the current price action could be fundamentally driven by an armament race.
The amount is tiny compared to other industries.
There seems to be a lot of leverage. The ratio silver to paper is like 1:378 according to Dave Collum (which is invested in a lot of metals). The ratio for gold is at 1:128 which still is a lot, but 3 times less than silver.
A short squeeze gets more and more probable…
The ratio comes mainly from Futures / open contracts I suppose.
There are unconfirmed rumors that UBS is sitting on a 5.2 billion ounce silver short: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DUc7KkwgYY
What are your thoughts?
The current silver price seems higher than what industrial demand could justify. So it’s fairly safe to assume that a fair portion of the price is emotionally-driven (i.e. driven by the view that precious metals are a safe haven), and another portion is speculative.
That has been the case with gold for centuries (at least). So it isn’t really a new development.
My personal opinion is that thanks to the hyper-money-printing seen in the early part of this decade, there is still far more money in circulation than there are viable investment opportunities. The result has been price inflation across any time of viable asset (stocks, real estate, now precious metals), and some less-viable ones (e.g. altcoins, NFTs, etc.). We now have prices for many assets which “price in” future growth that reaches far beyond any timeframe that can be reasonably planned for. Unless a lot of money is taken out of circulation, there is little reason to believe that the inflated prices will not become the new norm.
That’s horse manure. Ignore the “AI Asian guy”, it hallucinates. A few weeks ago it posted a video on a Sunday that a bank had just failed.
The theory goes something like this:
Most silver mining is a by-product of mining other elements such as copper. The prices of those other elements didn’t go up as much and basically the supply didn’t increase while the demand for silver did increase (e.g. because of solar panels).
The result is that there’s a supply shortage and it takes a bit of time to ramp up production.
And then there’s now new export restrictions since January 1st for Silver in China and some other stuff which exacerbates the situation. However, with the price going up as fast as it has there’s also certainly some selling / profit-taking now from Silver stackers so your guess is as good as mine where the price will go from here.
Here are some arguments for an even higher silver price in 2026:
See also this thread:
Not sure if it might make sense to merge.
Thanks for your replies. Still keeping an eye on the arms race stuff, but taking into consideration the other parameters you mentioned.
To get in before the hype -
Is bronze next? 
I think we are closer to a stone age.
My take is that a rotation to crypto will soon start. Silver in 2025 was perfect to hedge political instability. ALS the market should cool off a bit in 2026
Another interesting data point: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyqJGBTCpAc. I think you can enable automatic English translation or something. BTW - Tomasz Gessner is a reliable source I follow since years: first as a commenter on stooq.com and now since a few years at Tavex, which is some kind of gold/silver dealer or something (hence his focus there).
-30%. It was, dare I say, obviously, a speculative bubble.
Still 16% YTD and + 160% over 1 year.
And it could bounce back strongly on monday.
3x with silver so far…
Good. I’m not saying that it was not a good investment and am truly happy for your profits. But when something goes up 100% in weeks, I don’t think fundamentals are where one needs to look for explanations and reasoning. In other words, the trend up over the years can be explained with fundamentals, industrial demand, mining capacities etc. But the 100% up part in weeks, that’s just speculation, gambling frenzy
I agree to some degree. But let’s be clear : today’s drop was engineered.
It was a ten-sigma event, which statistically happens only once in (our universe age) times (3.5714286e+14).
So basically never.
