My point was in reply to the “reaction” video posted by SwissTeslaBull above.
Prefacing with the statement that Telsa isn’t a bleeping car company, his 2030 estimates are
- that they’ll be shipping 10 million cars
- thereby increasing their automotive revenue tenfold, to (only?) 250 billion USD
- “each” (!) car to generate 10’000 USD in software revenue, for another 100 billion USD
- the energy business may become as large as the car business (thus growing 100x)
- Tesla likely to generate more than 500 billion USD in revenue
- Tesla to be valued at 3-6 times sales
That must make them the world’s largest car maker, about as big as Toyota/Volkswagen today.
Tesla today is valued at more than 600 billion USD, at sales of 30 billion USD (to be generous).
For comparison, Toyota and Volkswagen with sales of approximately 300 billion USD are valued at multiples to sales of around 0.75 or 0.4 respectively (200 billion and 100 billion USD respectively).
Here’s my take:
Autopilot / self-driving: Cars won’t be self-driving by 2030. Self-driving use will be limited at best. Even if Tesla really had an advantage in self-driving software bering so far ahead of any other manufacturer, that it’d give them a monopoly, I doubt that it’s going to be a very strong competitive advantage for Tesla. I will not be surprised if European and Japanese authorities put a ban of its use. Even if it’s just to (secretly) protect their domestic automakers and allow them to catch up.
Batteries: Arguably their charging and range is Tesla’s strongest competitive advantage today. It’s at least doubtful that they will be able to retain it. There’s lots of competitors and companies researching newer tech and optimisations.
Software sales: The claim that every car will generate thousands of software sales is just outlandish to me. Especially on a mid-range car (which Tesla basically is, their cars don’t feel premium from all I read and hear).
Energy: They have batteries and solar panels. Especially solar panels: commodity tech with cutthroat competition. I have been invested in solar stocks years ago. It’s not going to grow hundredfold.
Growth: The growth trajectory won’t last forever - even less likely if they’ll already be the biggest car maker in the world in 2030.
20x increase in deliveries compared to this year?
100x increase of revenues in their energy business?
5-10x higher price-to-sales ratio than today’s biggest car makers?
The deliveries and automotive revenues don’t even seem that far-fetched to me.
It’s still a huuuge bet (primarily) on them keeping their competitive advantage in range and charging.
But to be valued as a growth company as the biggest manufacturer in the world?