Share your estimated future net worth progression

I made the “Share your networth progression” thread in 2020 and the “Share your salary progression” thread in 2021. I think it would be an interesting new take to compare our estimated future net worth progressions. By that I don’t mean just only posting a nice graph showing when you’ll reach x million or your FIRE number. But also explaining what assumptions you made and how you are calculating specific parts of the whole thing. So we might see different concepts and ideas from which everybody can learn and adjust his own if desired. I’ve just made some major updates to my spreadsheet which I would like to share.


Everything is based on this table I made:

The major points:

  • Salary increase is due to me very likely reaching Director-level at my job which has a minimum base salary of 128k (as of today). My boss is telling me that 3-5 years is the usual range with good performance. I want to be conservative and assume that I’ll get to that kind of base salary within 7 years. I also assume that I won’t just jump from 95k to 128k in one year but that there will be a significant increase every year. After that a conservative estimate of +1k/year.
  • Bonus is also conservative. I worked in retail banking and had 35k this year. It’s safe to assume that now as I switched into private banking the bonus will be higher. But again, I like to be more conservative and assume a generally lower bonus.
  • 3a max. contribution is usually changed every 2 years and linked to inflation. I assume a 2% increase every 2 years. I do the max. contribution in February every year and directly subtract it from my bonus.
  • Koordinationsabzug is 3.646 x max. 3a contribution. BVG-salary thus salary minus that. The pension fund contributions increase every 10 years plus there is a separate pension fund contribution on the bonus.
  • I’m currently able to save/invest around 2.1k/month on average. Future savings rate is based on salary increase minus taxes with diminishing increase each year. I want to account for two things here: Marginal tax rate is increasing and I assume that there will be some minor lifestyle inflation too.
  • Interest on 2nd pillar is 3% due to my pension fund having a long track record of exceptional interest rates. The last 3 years alone had 9.5%, 7% and 9%. I assume that they will stay clearly above average but I want to be conservative too as they won’t sustain that level of interest long-term. There are several pension funds with 3.0-4.5% average over the last 5 years (Schweizer Pensionskassen Rating -) so I’m just taking 3%. As it’s always applied by end of year, I’m doing that as well in the spreadsheet. I’m using the 12-month average value of the pension fund as interest is applied to the average you had through the year.
  • 6% yield for ETFs, 3a and Crypto. It’s lower than history is telling us. One could be more conservative here, but I’m pretty confident that I’ll even end up with a higher return long-term.
  • For RE home equity I’m taking a short-cut. I just use the 6% yield for increasing my home equity value. As it’s roughly 1/6 of the market value this translates to a 1% yearly increase of the market value. I account for Grundstückgewinnsteuer (40%) but don’t let that decrease like it would in the real world (down to 20% after owning it 10 years and so on). All in all probably my most conservative assumption of all.

Final thoughts: I might end up reaching my milestones (0.5M, 1M, 2M, 3M) way sooner than expected if I end up earning way more than expected. My total comp. 6 years ago was half of what I have now so I might get surprised again. Then there is kids. I didn’t account for that as I don’t have kids yet. They might (depends on the wife) significantly delay the time when I’ll reach those milestones. Probably moving my FIRE target from 50-52 years to 55-57 years.

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A couple of additional thoughts. They say the first 100k are the hardest and then it starts to accelerate. This is true because of 2 main reasons:

  1. If you look at your entire working career, your lowest income and lowest savings rate will be in that time you’re getting to those first 100k.

  2. Investment returns have a low impact in the beginning. If you save 1.5k/month for 5 years with 6% yield, you’ll get to 105k. Only 15k of those 105k are due to investment returns and 90k due to savings (86%). So it’s mainly hard work (discipline in saving) to get there. Now if you keep saving/investing the same amount for another 5 years, you end up with 245k. 95k of that 140k increase is now due do savings (68%). Eventually you reach a point where compound interest is making up the majority of wealth generation.

When I reflect on those 2 points and look at my data:

  • I started investing 5 years ago when I was 28. I’ll probably get to my first million when I’m 40. So while having a net worth of around 1/3 million next summer, I’ll be at the half-time of my journey to the first million.
  • I’ll probably reach my FIRE goal of 3M when I’m 51-52. So it will take me a total of 24 years to get there. Again, when I’m at the half-time of reaching that goal (40), it will again look like I’m only at 33% progress by having 1M.
  • I’m currently at 9% of my FIRE goal, but I already spent 21% of the required time to reach my goal.
  • The NW jumps are steadily increasing. It took me 2 years to get to 100k. The next 100k took 25 months, the next 100k will take 19 months, the next 100k 15 months and then suddenly you’re making 100k+ jumps within the same year.
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Nice idea, thanks for sharing first.

You are not accounting for inflation in any of those projections?

Nice table, I’ll snag it and plug my numbers.

Overall in terms of projections I’m assuming similar to yours but with 7% CAGR. My projections around contributions tell me that I need 3 more years until compounding overtakes my work, and 7 more after than when I can just stop.

It’s amazing what one can achieve with a normal work ethic and a lot of patience and consistency.

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I’m not as I like to think in nominal terms. My FIRE goal might shift due to that though. So when I hit my first million, my target number might have grown in the meantime. But it’s a number which is a lot higher than I actually would need at this moment. I could live with 60-65k/year and do all my hobbies, travel the world etc.

Neat idea. I did a similar chart in 2016 for up to 2024 and managed to overachieve by about 30%. So I would say it’s not an exact science to predict future net worth beyond 2-3 years, unless both your income and expenses are fairly stable. In my case, getting married and having a kid did change the overall budget quite significantly.

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Well having more than expected is always a good thing :smiley:

I know that I can‘t predict the future 20 years from now, but it gives me a clear achievable goal: 0.5M with 36, 1M with 40, 2M with 45 and 3M with 50.

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Increase in salary up to retirement age may or may not be the reality. For me, it looks like I may have maxed out at age 51. Or maybe this is what partial RE looks like: 6 months of freedom at age 55, 6 months at 58. I never optimized for max salary or max time with a company, but rather for max motivation to go to work every morning.

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Yeah. I think I maxed out at 40 - priorities changed, esp. after having kids.

I suggest people go for advancement as much as possible before kids as time/energy can decrease substantially afterwards. I was lucky to have carved out a position which enables flexibility so that I could manage work and home life.

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